TOP STORIES
Iran Holding UN Atomic Agency ‘Hostage,’ Refusing To Cooperate, Director Says | Times Of Israel
Iran is barely cooperating with the International Atomic Energy Agency, which feels it is being held “hostage” to the country’s disputes with Western countries, IAEA director general Rafael Grossi told AFP on Thursday. Grossi also said the situation at the Ukrainian nuclear power plant of Zaporizhzhia was “extremely worrying,” even if there are no signs the plant has become a military installation. The UN agency, based in Vienna, has been struggling since 2021 to carry out controls on Iran’s nuclear program, which continues to expand even as Tehran denies it wants to make nuclear weapons. “It’s a very frustrating situation. We continue our activities there, but at a minimum,” Grossi said in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “They are restricting cooperation in a very unprecedented way.” He cited as an example Iran’s rejection of inspectors because of their nationalities.
Could It Escalate? A Look At What Is Behind Iran And Pakistan’s Airstrikes | Associated Press
This week’s airstrikes between Iran and Pakistan that killed at least 11 people mark a significant escalation in fraught relations between the neighbors. Long-running, low-level insurgencies on either side of the border have frustrated both countries, and the apparent targets of the strikes — Iran’s on Tuesday and Pakistan’s response on Thursday — were insurgent groups whose goal is an independent Baluchistan for ethnic Baluch areas in Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. The question is why Iran and Pakistan would choose to strike insurgents in each other’s territories rather than their own, considering the risk of a wider conflagration.
Pakistan's Leaders Set To Hold National Security Review Following Iran Standoff | The National
Pakistan's caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar has summoned a meeting of top civilian and military leaders on Friday for a national security review amid a stand-off with Iran, Information Minister Murtaza Solangi told Reuters. Pakistan's foreign ministry quoted its minister as saying the country has no interest or desire to escalate matters with Iran. Islamabad launched retaliatory strikes on separatist militants inside Iran on Thursday, two days after Tehran sent shock waves around the region with a missile strike against what it described as hardline Sunni Muslim militants in south-west Pakistan.Pakistan's response is the first air strike on Iranian soil since the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.
UANI IN THE NEWS
… Mark Wallace, CEO of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), agrees that much stronger military action must be taken against the IRGC, who are helping its various proxies destabilise the Middle East. He previously told The Sun: “Iran is the number one state sponsor of terrorism and the most egregious, terroristic and destabilising actor on the world stage,” Wallace, who is the former US ambassador to the UN, said: "Whether it be at home or in commerce abroad, policymakers have lost the plot on Iran." Wallace describes how Iran invested in a dream of a multi-front war against Israel by surrounding it with Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) to the west, Lebanon's Hezbollah in the north and Yemen's Houthi rebels in the south.
… It also set up a clash with advocacy groups like United Against Nuclear Iran, who slammed the WEF for inviting someone with purported links to sponsors of the brutal Oct. 7 Hamas attacks in Israel, according to Iran International. UANI policy director Jason Brodsky tweeted, “It looks like Iran’s regime’s foreign minister is now on the WEF program at Davos for 1/17/2024. The theme of WEF this year is “Rebuilding Trust.” You can’t make it up.
Tensions between Iran and Pakistan have been long-standing. Assaults like Jaish al-Adl’s attack in December 2023 on an Iranian police station in Rask are nothing new. A year earlier, militants killed four members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Saravan and then fled back to Pakistan. But Iran’s differing responses to these two events is new. Back in December 2022, Iran’s armed forces did not launch strikes in Pakistan in response. Fast forward to January 2024, they did. This change reflects mounting concern inside the Islamic Republic that its deterrence has eroded over years of failed or non-responses to a variety of assaults against its interests—sponsored by Israel, the United States, ISIS, and local militant groups…In the end, Tehran will be nervous, as it knows the United States will be watching how Pakistan swiftly responded kinetically on Iranian territory.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Iran Getting Closer To Nukes Amid Rising Military Tension In Mideast | Iran International
Iran now has sufficient quantities of highly enriched uranium to build several atomic warheads, the head of the UN nuclear watchdog has once again warned. Speaking to Bloomberg on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Rafael Grossi reiterated his concerns that no technical obstacle remains between Iran and a nuclear bomb, implying that the regime can make them now if it wanted to. This comes amid Iran’s unprecedented belligerence in launching airstrikes against three of its neighbors in a matter of 24 hours: Syria, Iraq, and nuclear power Pakistan –which was the only one of the three countries to retaliate almost immediately. Both countries were quick to stress that they respect the other’s sovereignty and that their attacks have been meant to hit “terrorist hideouts” only. But the mutual reassurances do little to allay concerns of others in the region who fear that even a slight miscalculation could put the two Islamic Republics on a collision course.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Virginia Man Sentenced To 24 Months For Exports To Iran | Iran International
The United States Department of Justice has sentenced a man to prison for shipping heavy equipment to Iran in violation of US sanctions. Jalal Hajavi, a 60-year-old resident of Sterling, Virginia, was sentenced to 24 months in prison followed by three years of supervised release for his involvement in a scheme to export industrial goods from the United States to Iran. The shipments were routed through the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and he had a co-conspirator located in Iran, according to the statement released Thursday. Hajavi was convicted by a jury in September 2023 for violating the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and the Iranian Transactions and Sanctions Regulations (ITSR), smuggling, and unlawfully exporting and reexporting goods to Iran without a license. Assistant Attorney General Matthew G. Olsen of the Justice Department’s National Security Division said, “Mr. Hajavi illegally shipped industrial equipment to the Iranian regime, smuggled restricted goods through the UAE to Iran, and caused a shipping company to submit false information to the US government.”
MISSILE PROGRAM
Iran Attacked Syria With Long-Range Missile In Message To Israel – Analysis | Jerusalem Post
Iran carried out a long-range attack on ISIS in northwest Syria this week, using its Kheibar Shekan ballistic missiles. The attack was a “message” for the US and Israel, according to Iranian media. The Islamic Republic is now attacking random areas in Syria to show off its missile capabilities while using the cover of “striking terrorists” as a way to test the missiles’ precision. This particular type of missile was unveiled in 2022. Iran claims it has a range of 1,450 km. and is supposed to have high-speed and precision-strike capabilities, which makes it a dangerous strategic weapon.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Biden Says Iran-Pakistan Clash Shows Iran Is Not Well-Liked In Region | Reuters
U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday that the clashes between Iran and Pakistan this week show that Iran is not well-liked in the region as the White House said it does not want to see an escalation. Pakistan launched strikes on separatist militants inside Iran on Thursday, in a retaliatory attack two days after Tehran said it struck the bases of another group within Pakistani territory. "As you can see Iran is not particularly well liked in the region and where that goes, we're working on now. I don't know where that goes," Biden said. The United States has been locked in a test of wills with Iran over its support for Houthi rebels in Yemen who have been launching attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran: Forcibly Disappeared Men Risk Secret Execution | Amnesty International
Iranian Kurdish dissidents Pejman Fatehi, Vafa Azarbar, Mohammad (Hazhir) Faramarzi and Mohsen Mazloum, are at grave risk of execution in secret, without prior notice to their families and lawyers, as the authorities have been subjecting them to enforced disappearance, a crime under international law, since July 2022. Amid a horrific spike in executions across Iran, the men’s death sentences, imposed after a grossly unfair secret trial, were upheld by the Supreme Court on 2 January 2024 and sent for implementation.
A Swedish-Iranian Man In His 60s Arrested Last Year In Iran, Sweden Says | Associated Press
Iran last year arbitrarily detained a Swedish citizen in his 60s, authorities in Stockholm said Thursday, calling for the man’s immediate release. The government did not identify the man, but said he holds both Swedish and Iranian citizenship and was detained at the end of November “without a clear reason.” The Foreign Ministry in Stockholm on Wednesday summoned Iran’s chargé d’affaires and demanded the release of all Swedish citizens “who are arbitrarily detained in Iran.” At the same time, Sweden also issued a protest against Iran’s attack on the city of Irbil, in Iraq’s semi-autonomous northern Kurdish region, late on Monday.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Netanyahu: We’re Attacking Iran Directly | Times Of Israel
In response to another reporter, who asks why Israel is sufficing with attacks on Iran’s proxies rather than attacking Iran directly, Netanyahu responds, “Who says we aren’t attacking Iran? We are attacking Iran.” “Iran has further phases to go through that I won’t detail” on the path to nuclear weapons,” he says. “I am obligated as the prime minister of Israel to do everything to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons.” Asked about the progress of the war, he says 16 or 17 of Hamas’s 24 battalions have been destroyed. “After that, there is the [phase] of clearing the territory [of remaining gunmen]. The first action is usually shorter, the second usually takes longer.”
Iran Armed Forces To Launch Air Defense Drill Amid Rising Tensions | Iran International
The Iranian armed forces are set to launch an air defense drill on Thursday in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. IRNA, the Iranian state news agency, reported that the drill will be conducted over an area of 600 kilometers. The Iranian army and the IRGC’s naval and air forces will participate, IRNA added. Qader Rahimzadeh, an Iranian air defense commander, said that several state-of-the-art systems will be on display for the first time in this drill. Dozens of manned and unmanned aircrafts will use “the tactics of the day” to attack the critical sites identified in this drill, Rahimzadeh claimed. Fars news agency, affiliated with the IRGC, reported that this is the fifth air defense drill in which the IRGC and the Iranian army jointly take part.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iran has condemned what it called a "disproportionate and unacceptable" attack by Pakistan on its territory, which came in response to an Iranian strike, raising fears of escalating military exchanges between the two neighbors. While criticizing Islamabad for the scale of the attack, Iran's Foreign Ministry also appeared to try and allay concerns of rising tensions, striking a conciliatory tone in its statement on January 18 by referring to Pakistan as a "friend and brother." Pakistani warplanes launched air strikes early on January 18 on alleged militant targets in Iran, an attack that Tehran said killed at least nine people, including six children and two women, according to Iran's Foreign Ministry. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said it had summoned Pakistan's charge d'affaires in response to the attack, the first by another country on Iranian soil since the end of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.
IRANIAN REGIONAL AGGRESSION
The Dutch government on Friday summoned the Iranian ambassador to the Netherlands following the death of a Dutch baby in an attack by Iran on Erbil, Iraq. A Dutch child of less than one year old had died in attacks by Iran on Erbil, Dutch Foreign Minister Hanke Bruins Slot said in a statement. She added she had asked her Iranian counterpart for clarification and had summoned the Iranian ambassador.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
US Strikes Houthi Anti-Ship Missiles, Shipping Disruptions Grow | Reuters
The U.S. launched new strikes against Houthi anti-ship missiles aimed at the Red Sea on Thursday, as growing tensions in the region's sea lanes disrupted global trade and raised fears of supply bottlenecks that could reignite inflation. The two anti-ship missiles targeted in the strikes were being prepared by Yemen's Houthis for firing into the Red Sea and deemed "an imminent threat" to shipping and U.S. Navy vessels in the region, the U.S. military said. Attacks by the Iran-allied Houthi militia on ships in and around the Red Sea since November have slowed trade between Asia and Europe and alarmed major powers in an escalation of the war between Israel and Palestinian Hamas militants in Gaza.
Houthis Embrace ‘Direct Confrontation’ With U.S. As Biden Admits Airstrikes Aren’t Working | CNBC
Yemen’s Houthi rebels are enthusiastically “confronting America directly,” the organization’s leader said in a televised speech, vowing to continue the group’s campaign of attacks on ships in the Red Sea until Israel’s blockade of Gaza is lifted. The remarks came as the U.S. steps up its strikes on Houthi targets and ahead of President Joe Biden’s admission to reporters that so far, his administration’s military action was not having its intended effect. “When you say working, are they stopping the Houthis?” Biden said in an exchange with reporters in Washington, D.C. “No. Are they going to continue? Yes.” The White House re-designated the Houthis as a terrorist organization on Jan. 17, after de-listing the group in 2021. The U.S. carried out its fifth airstrike against Houthi targets in Yemen late Thursday night, with American jets targeting anti-ship missiles that U.S. Central Command said “were aimed into the southern Red Sea and prepared to launch.”
MISCELLANEOUS
UK Confirms British Businessman Died In IRGC Strike On Erbil Site | The National
A British citizen was killed during an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) strike on a site in northern Iraq, the UK government has confirmed. Five civilians, including two children, died in the missile strike in Erbil on Monday, according to Iraqi Kurdish officials. It targeted the family home of Kurdish businessman Peshraw Dizayee, who was killed alongside his 11-month-old daughter. Stephen Hitchen, the British ambassador to Iraq, confirmed the death of dual citizen Karam Mikhael in the attack.