TOP STORIES
IAEA Chief To Visit Iran Next Week As Anxiety Grows Over Nuclear Program | Times Of Israel
United Nations nuclear agency chief Rafael Grossi will visit Iran next week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said on Tuesday, amid heightened tensions between the Islamic Republic and Israel that have led to fears of an attack on a nuclear facility. “We can confirm that Director General Grossi will be in Iran on May 6-7 for meetings with senior Iranian officials,” a spokesman of the International Atomic Energy Agency told AFP. His visit next week comes weeks after a reported Israeli strike in the central province of Isfahan in retaliation for Iran’s first-ever direct attack on Israel. On April 13-14, the Islamic Republic fired a barrage of hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel in response to Israel’s alleged killing of Revolutionary Guard generals in Syria. srael, in response, was reported to have struck an airbase near Isfahan in central Iran, damaging a radar defense system. Iran downplayed the attack, saying no link to Israel was found, thus allaying fears of a wider regional war. The IAEA and Iranian officials also said there was “no damage” to nuclear sites in the province.
Iran’s authorities summoned for questioning crew members and actors of an Iranian film due to be shown in the main competition at next month’s Cannes Film Festival, their lawyer said on Tuesday. The people working on “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” by acclaimed director Mohammad Rasoulof were pressured to have it withdrawn from the festival, while the actors were banned from leaving the country, lawyer Babak Paknia posted on social media site X. Rasoulof, who won the Golden Bear, the Berlin Film Festival’s top prize, in 2020 with his anti-capital punishment film “There Is No Evil,” was detained in July 2022. He was released in late 2023 after anti-government protests that began in September 2022 subsided. Paknia wrote on X that some crew members had been “interrogated” this week and last week, while actors on the film had also been questioned and barred from leaving the country.
The Houthis Are Ready To Play Their Part In A Total Iran-Israel War | Newsweek
A senior official of the powerful Yemeni movement already engaged in direct confrontation with Israel and United States forces has revealed to Newsweek that the group is committed to coming to the aid of its Iran-aligned alliance in the event that the ongoing conflicts surrounding Gaza spiral into a major regional war. "As for our defense of ourselves, our region, and those with whom we have alliances, such as the Axis of Resistance," Nasreddin Amer, deputy information secretary for Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, told Newsweek, "we will certainly never stand idly by in the face of any foreign, Western aggression against any country in our Islamic world." Other Axis of Resistance factions, such as the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, have also entered the fray since the conflict in Gaza began nearly seven months ago. Tensions soared significantly earlier this month, however, after Israel conducted a deadly airstrike on a building attached to Iran's embassy in Syria, killing several military personnel, and Iran launched a major direct missile and drone attack on Israel.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Princeton’s Mousavian Mocks Protesters Calling For His Resignation | Iran International
…Omid Iravanipour, a human rights advisor for United Against a Nuclear Iran, also spoke at the rally, slamming the ongoing employment by Princeton of a man so closely linked with a regime that the US says is the world's number one state sponsor of terror. He said “It is appalling that a person that loudly and proudly has praised Qasem Soleimani, one of IRGC’s major commanders who was not only a part of oppression and murder machine of IRGC against Iranian citizens but also responsible for countless murders, injuries and kidnappings of Americans and American allies.” Iravanipour said that under Mousavian's watch as ambassador in Germany, Iranian Fereydoun Farrokhzad was murdered in his apartment in Germany following his involvement in producing an opposition radio program and reportedly, receiving death threats.
…A report last year by United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) described Iran’s drones as “a symbol of national pride of resilience” – a propaganda tool to inflate Iran’s military might. “The advancement of its drone program represents a technological triumph for the Islamic Republic,” the report added.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
IAEA Chief Grossi To Visit Iran May 6-8, Mehr Says | Reuters
International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi is scheduled to visit Iran to take part in a nuclear conference from May 6-8 and meet Iranian officials, Iran's Mehr news agency said on Tuesday. "Grossi will meet Iranian officials in Tehran before participating in the International Conference of Nuclear Sciences and Technologies held in Isfahan," the agency reported. The IAEA chief said in February that he was planning a visit to Tehran to tackle a "drifting apart" in relations between the agency and the Islamic Republic.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Iran Says Crew Of Seized Portuguese-Flagged Ship In ‘Perfect Health’ | Iran International
The deputy director of Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization announced that the crew of the seized Portuguese-flagged container ship MSC Aries is "in perfect health." The ship, linked to an Israeli-owned company, was intercepted by the Revolutionary Guard in the Strait of Hormuz on April 13 amidst heightened tensions with Israel. Ali Akbar Marzban claimed, "all 24 crew members of the ship are in perfect health, and there is no concern regarding their health, hygiene, welfare, and safety." One female crew member from India, initially part of the crew, has been allowed to return home. On Saturday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told his Portuguese counterpart, Paulo Rangel, that consular access has been granted and the crew is expected to be released soon and turned over to their ambassadors in Tehran. The IRGC claims the MSC Aries was violating maritime laws and maintains its seizure was due to the vessel's associations with the country's archenemy, Israel. The ship is reportedly leased by MSC from Gortal Shipping, connected to Zodiac Maritime, which is partly owned by Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer.
Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel have driven up commodity costs, reignited worries about a flare-up in inflation, and sparked renewed fears of wider conflict in the Middle East. One factor that might avert a regional war is the dismal state of Iran's economy. The country has borne the brunt of Western sanctions for decades, making it tough for Tehran to finance any war effort — and that could be a warning sign for Vladimir Putin as the war in Ukraine drags on. The US first imposed sanctions on Iran after students seized the American embassy in Tehran in 1979, and has stepped up its efforts considerably more recently. In 2018, Donald Trump decided to pull out of a nuclear agreement between the US and Iran. The then-president said he would put "maximum economic pressure" on Iran, setting the stage for sanctions packages that have pummelled the Iranian economy.
The Biden administration has allowed billions in sanctions waivers that benefit Iran, with estimated billions more in unsanctioned oil sales, which allows the Iranian government to continue diverting money to its drone factories and funding proxy groups, an expert told Fox News Digital. "What happens when you end up releasing that money is that it goes into the general funds, which can then be used in lots of different ways," Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), explained. "If they are using the sanctions relief to fund their general budget, then ultimately [they] are to the benefit of the IRGC because the IRGC partakes in that regular budget," Schanzer said, noting the Biden administration has often argued that any waivers do not ultimately and directly benefit the Iranian military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
UK Committee Examines Counter-Terrorism Policy With Iran Focus | Iran International
The UK Foreign Affairs Committee convened a session Tuesday where experts provided insights on threats posed by Iran as part of the Committee's inquiry into the UK’s international counter-terrorism policy. Those testifying included Younger and University of St Andrews Professor of Iranian History, Ali Ansari. During the initial panel, former MI6 chief Sir Alex Younger discussed the evaluation of the UK's counter-terrorism policy, focusing on the global threat landscape and factors contributing to terrorism. Leveraging his experience in intelligence and security matters, Younger emphasized the intricate nature of the global threats and underscored the pivotal role of state sponsorship in amplifying the impact of terrorist activities. When questioned about the complexity added by Iran's involvement with organized crime, Younger emphasized the significant challenge posed when a state supports such activities. “I think all of these do take on a different character if you've got the state behind them.”
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
US Voters Reject Iran Nuclear Talks, Blame Tehran For Oct. 7 – Poll | Iran International
A large majority of US voters say Iran is responsible for the attack on Israel, including Hamas’ attack on October 7, 2023, according to the latest Harvard CAPS-Harris poll. This month's poll, conducted by The Harris Poll & HarrisX, highlighted several issues regarding Iran, with the results reflecting a nationally representative sample. Answers from over 2,000 registered American voters show that the majority see US negotiations with Iran to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions as futile. While a strong majority agreed that Iran is a danger globally and should be stopped from having nuclear weapons, about 67% (2 in 3 voters) said that negotiating with Iran would not work, as Tehran will violate any deal. Notably, skepticism over a deal with Iran over its nuclear program increased with age, with 83% of those above the age of 65 saying that Tehran would violate any deal. Almost 70% of voters believe that sanctions and isolation are the best way to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
The Guardian View On The Women Of Iran: Still Resisting Repression | The Guardian
The protests that exploded across Iran following Mahsa Amini’s death in custody in September 2022 were a turning point. The young Iranian-Kurdish woman had been detained by the “morality police” for “improper hijab”. Not only did young women take to the streets and cast off their scarves in fury, but parents and grandparents came too. The protests were strikingly socially diverse. Critically, men joined the cries of “woman, life, freedom”. The regime reacted with predictable fury, killing hundreds and arresting thousands. It succeeded in suppressing the demonstrations. But many women refused to return to obeying the strict dress code. It was inevitable that the Iranian leadership would strike back. Its quarrel is not only with women’s liberties, but with the precedent set for defiance. It is determined to crush opposition as it crushed the street protests, with a court sentencing a popular rapper to death – not for violence but simply dissent. Toomaj Salehi, courageous in supporting the nationwide protests in 2022, was found guilty of “corruption on Earth”. He had previously been sentenced to six years over his role, before being freed by a court citing a technicality.
Iran Commutes A Tycoon's Death Sentence To 20 Years In Prison | Associated Press
Iran’s judiciary said Tuesday that it commuted a death sentence for a tycoon to 20 years in prison after he returned around $2.1 billion in assets from illegally selling oil abroad, the official IRNA news agency reported. Babak Zanjani, 48, was sentenced to death in 2016 over a number of charges, including money laundering, forgery and fraud that disrupted the country’s economy. IRNA quoted judiciary spokesman Asghar Jahangir as saying that an appeal for amnesty by Zanjani was reviewed and his death sentence was "commuted to a 20-year prison term after approval by the Supreme Leader.“ Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the final say on all state matters and occasionally issues pardons. Jahangir said as part of Zanjani's 2016 sentence, he had the right to an amnesty or commutation of his death sentence if he returned the assets, compensated for damages and expressed regret for wrongdoing.
Iran Executes Two Kurdish Prisoners | Iran Wire
The Islamic Republic has carried out the executions of two Kurdish prisoners, amid a significant increase in the country's use of death penalty. On April 30, Kurdish prisoner Faramarz Moradi, 31, was executed in Ardabil Central Prison, according to HANA Human Rights Organization. Moradi was arrested on drug-related charges four years ago and sentenced to death by the Iranian judicial system. Anwar Khezri, a Kurdish religious prisoner from Mahabad, was also executed on April 30 in Ghezelhesar prison after 15 years of imprisonment. This follows the recent executions of his co-defendants, Davood Abdollahi, Qasim Abeste, Ayoub Karimi, and Farhad Salimi, who were all held in the same prison. Khezri's family was denied a final meeting despite being notified at the last minute about his transfer to solitary confinement on the day before his execution.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Iran Conducts Naval Drills With Missile-Corvette Amid Gulf Maritime Tensions | Al-Monitor
Iran's armed forces carried out a series of naval drills on Monday, in what officials said was a show of "power and preparedness" in safeguarding the Persian Gulf waters. Dubbed the "Parade of Authority," the exercise marked Persian Gulf National Day and involved the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regular army and the national police, as their units came together in the strategic Khor Musa channel, near the southwestern energy-rich port city of Mahshahr. During inauguration speeches aired by the national broadcaster, commanders and local officials referenced Iran's mid-April attack on Israel, in which the IRGC launched over 300 drones and missiles in retaliation for an Israel-blamed strike that killed seven senior officers inside the Iranian Consulate in Damascus earlier in the month. "Our forces will not allow any foreign country, especially the Zionist regime, to make an appearance in the Persian Gulf area," warned IRGC Adm. Mohammad Sharif Shirali, while another commander spoke of "darkness and hardship befalling any aggressor who takes any wrong step in the Persian Gulf."
Israel is still routing Iran in the real world impacts of cyberattacks, even if the Islamic Republic has rallied to cause increased harm to Israeli websites and through its social media influence campaigns, former IDF Intelligence Corps Unit 8200 Col. (res.) and Team 8 Chief Ideation Officer Bobby Gilburd said. Speaking to The Jerusalem Post following Team 8’s recent report relating to artificial intelligence (AI) and business issues, he said, “We need to separate the psychological campaign” from the campaign to damage actual physical world functions. Gilburd had been asked to address a series of Iranian cyberattacks discussed in comprehensive detail by former deputy National Security Council chief Chuck Freilich in his INSS book The Iranian Cyber Threat.
NORTH KOREA & IRAN
US And EU Eye North Korea-Iran Military Cooperation | Voice Of America
The United States and the European Union say they are keeping their eyes on Pyongyang and Tehran for any possible military cooperation between the two as Iran confirms a North Korean delegation's visit to the country. The U.S. "will use all available tools, including interdiction and sanctions, to address such activities," a State Department spokesperson said in an email to VOA's Korean Service on Friday. An EU spokesperson on the same day told VOA Korean that it is also "following closely Iran-DPRK relations and their potential cooperation that could indeed be concerning on certain issues if it violates existing U.N. sanctions." North Korea's official name is the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Pyongyang announced through its state-run KCNA that it sent a delegation led by its External Economic Relations Minister Yun Jong Ho to Iran on April 23. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said on Monday that a North Korean delegation visited Tehran last week to discuss bilateral trade, according to Reuters.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Iran's Hold On Syria Strong Despite 'Withdrawals' After Israeli Attacks | Al-Monitor
Iran has pulled some of its forces out of bases in Damascus and southern Syria, according to various media outlets and war monitors, as a precautionary measure in the wake of the Gaza conflict and the corresponding escalation in Israeli attacks on Iran and its allies. The reports have in turn spurred speculation over a shift in Iran’s broader Syria policy that may create opportunities for the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to revive normalization with fellow Arab states. Many analysts, however, say that the reports are exaggerated and that Iran has merely pulled out top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders who are being targeted in Israeli precision strikes. If anything, Iran’s dependence on its Shiite militia allies in Syria has increased, and Assad shows few signs, if any, that he can afford an Iranian withdrawal, and as such, the potential for a wider conflagration of the Gaza conflict that would suck in Syria cannot be discounted. The reports of a thinning of the Iranian presence, notably around Daraa and Quneitra close to the Golan Heights, follow the suspected April 1 Israeli attack in Damascus on what Iran said was a diplomatic compound that was therefore protected by the Vienna Convention.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Cameron Warns Diplomatic Break With Iran Would Weaken Diplomacy With Tehran | The National
Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Cameron has said that Britain must not label Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as terrorists as this would end diplomatic relations and would result in him sending messages to Tehran “via France”. Lord Cameron also stated that indirect messages sent to Iran from countries which did not have diplomatic relations, including America, led to him frequently being requested by the Iranians to explain what they meant. Asked by the House of Lords international relations committee if the IRGC should be proscribed as a terrorist group, Lord Cameron said this would immediately end diplomatic relations. He argued that in times of crisis, especially with the Israel-Gaza war, it was vital that he could pick up the phone and speak to Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian.