Tanker Tracking

A flurry of developments at the back-end of May suggests that the Biden team is finally starting to accept that it must confront the issue of Iranian oil exports – in word and deed.

Four years of UANI Tanker Tracker data are punctuated by three key dates, all leading to significant sustained changes in total Iranian oil exports when looking at all destinations: 1) May 8, 2018 (the announcement that the U.S. would withdraw from the JCPOA); 2) May 2, 2019 (the end of U.S. oil waivers on all countries), and; 3) January 21, 2021 (the start of the Biden Presidency).

II. Chinese Imports of Iranian Oil – Total

April marks the fourth anniversary of UANI’s Tanker Tracker. It draws on deep wells of HUMINT, satellite imagery, Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, cargo datasets, port documentation analysis, vessel identification, and other data triangulation.  Now regularly cited in specialist maritime and mainstream outlets, UANI provides the most accurate accounting of Iran’s oil exports.

As Europe increasingly shuns Russian oil in response to its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has tried to get its Chinese ally to take up the slack.  The world’s third biggest oil supplier is already China’s top provider, supplying 15% of total imports at 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd).

As part of the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, the White House reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil and tankers to slash regime exports to zero. In response, Tehran farmed out the work to a parallel fleet of foreign vessels. This fleet, 177 strong and all foreign-flagged and foreign-owned, delivers Iranian oil thereby keeping the Islamic Republic in business.

Back in September 2019, the U.S. State Department announced sanctions on five Chinese companies for purchasing Iranian oil, including two entities owned by China Oil Shipping Company (“COSCO”), a Chinese state-owned shipping company headquartered in Shanghai.

On February 2, the International Group of P&I Clubs (IGP&I) – whose members provide maritime liability cover for approximately 90% of the global ocean-going tonnage – issued a joint circular describing recent deceptive shipping practices.

UANI’s shipping campaign has been widely successful in compelling the world’s leading maritime classification societies to strip rogue ships of their certifications. Absent such accreditations guaranteeing a vessel’s seaworthiness, a tanker is barred from entry to foreign ports and may not secure insurance cover.

On January 20, 2022, China officially acknowledged for the first time in more than two years that it had imported Iranian oil – an openly declared violation of U.S. sanctions. In reality, Beijing has been importing millions of barrels of Iranian oil every single month since May 2, 2019, when the U.S. banned all Iranian oil exports to all countries. Since that date, China has imported a total of 542 million barrels from Iran.