TOP STORIES
White House 'Very Concerned' About Prospect Of Israel-Iran War | Newsweek
White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby on Thursday said that Washington is "very concerned" over escalating tensions between Israel and Iran after a deadly airstrike on the Islamic Republic's embassy in Syria. Tehran has warned that it "reserves its legitimate and inherent right" to defend itself after the attack on Iran's consulate building in Damascus on Monday killed several military officials, including two senior commanders. Iranian officials have blamed Israel for the attack, and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has declined requests from Newsweek to confirm or deny its role in the bombing. Speaking with CNN's Wolf Blitzer, Kirby said the White House was "concerned" over the possibility of tensions between Iran and Israel heightening into a full-scale war in light of the attack, adding: "We're all taking this very, very seriously. Nobody wants to see this conflict escalate."
US Issues Fresh Iran-Related Sanctions Targeting Vessel Owner | Reuters
The United States on Thursday imposed new Iran-related counterterrorism sanctions against Oceanlink Maritime DMCC and its vessels, citing its role in shipping commodities on behalf of the Iranian military. The United States is using financial sanctions to isolate Iran and disrupt its ability to fund its proxy groups and support Russia's war in Ukraine, the Treasury Department said. The United Arab Emirates-based Oceanlink operates a fleet of more than a dozen vessels deeply involved in shipping Iranian commodities, Treasury said.
Israel On High Alert After Iran’s Missile Retaliation Threat | The Guardian
Israel has suspended leave for combat units and heightened its air defence command to deal with possible missile or drone attack from Iran following the killing this week in an airstrike of senior Revolutionary Guard commanders in Syria. The Israeli military is also considering reopening shelters in Tel Aviv as a precaution against a possible attack, according to Mehr News Agency. “In accordance with the situational assessment, it has been decided that leave will be temporarily paused for all IDF (Israel Defense Forces) combat units. The IDF is at war and the deployment of forces is under continuous assessment according to requirements,” the military said in a statement. Iran has vowed revenge after an airstrike destroyed the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing at least 11 people, including a senior commander in the al-Quds force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
UANI IN THE NEWS
Three Accused Of TV Presenter Attack Flee UK | BBC News
Kasra Aarabi, UANI’s director for IRGC research spoke to BBC News on the attack on his friend, UK-based Iranian journalist Pouria Zeraati and the Iranian regime’s goal to silence Iranians at home and abroad.
Tehran started the year strongly, shipping over 1.5m bpd during the first quarter, preliminary figures from United Against Nuclear Iran show. Preliminary figures from UANI showing that Tehran shipped more oil in the first quarter than in any equivalent period since the reimposition of sanctions took full effect in April 2019. Meanwhile, UANI says 41 tankers have switched flag from Panama following pressure from US lawmakers and diplomats.
…Analysts with expertise in Iran and its elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, say the chances of a direct Iranian strike on Israel are slim, particularly because Tehran doesn’t have the capabilities to defeat Israel militarily and is struggling to contain public unrest at home. “Instead, if the IRGC is to directly respond, we can expect Tehran to fabricate false claims about ‘Mossad operation centers’ in third-party nations—such as Iraqi Kurdistan or even Azerbaijan—to provide the IRGC with space to conduct symbolic strikes for propaganda purposes, but without fear of any direct Israeli retaliation,” said Kasra Aarabi, director of IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran, a U.S.-based advocacy organization. An adviser to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard also said to expect a form of retaliation on Thursday or Friday, saying Iran would choose an action proportional to the Israeli attack in Damascus.
…Jason Brodsky, policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran, which tracks the “ghost fleet” of tankers that Iran uses to evade U.S. sanctions, said that the newly-designated ships are just one component of Iran’s larger smuggling operation. “It’s a very sophisticated game. They use ship-to-ship transfers, spoofing locations and they try to mask the origin of the product that they’re trying to evade U.S. sanctions on,” Brodsky told JNS. “We have around 377 vessels on our list right now, and that includes the ones that were sanctioned today.” “There are still a lot of ships to crack down on,” he said. “This is only a small portion of what’s been going on with these illicit trades.”
…United Against Nuclear Iran, a pressure group that identifies ships operating in trades that fall under sanctions against Tehran, has all 13 ships on its ghost fleet list. “By stopping these vessels in their tracks, we can significantly cut the revenue stream to the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] terrorists, a crucial step in weakening their destabilizing activities,” chief of staff Clare Jungman wrote on X.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Designating Financial Supporters Of Iran’s Ministry Of Defense | US Department Of Defense
The United States is today designating one entity and identifying 13 associated vessels as blocked property, as well as updating one vessel name on the SDN List, for facilitating illicit trade in support of Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) and Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL). The United States will continue to take action against entities that transport cargoes or facilitate transactions in support of MODAFL and the AFGS, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or Iran’s foreign proxy and partner groups. We remain committed to disrupting illicit funding streams financing Iran’s production of weapons that support Russia’s war against Ukraine and the attacks by Iranian proxy groups throughout the Middle East.
Bolster Sanctions To Stop Iran’s Growing Military Space Capabilities | Defense News
In mid-February, the chair of the House Intelligence Committee alleged the existence of a “serious national security threat” — a Russian effort to deploy a nuclear anti-satellite weapon in space. The episode drew attention to an often overlooked, but crucial domain of U.S. national security — space. As a top Pentagon official noted recently, “our competitors know ... how much the American way of life and the American ways of war depend on space power.” And it is not just Russia; Iran, too, is increasing its space-based capabilities to threaten the United States. Iran has claimed a string of achievements in space in recent months. In February, Russia reportedly assisted Iran with launching a satellite into space from a Russian site. Iran claimed in September that it successfully used a space launch vehicle, or SLV, to place a military satellite in space. Iranian officials then asserted in January that it put multiple satellites into orbit in a single launch for the first time.
An Iran-Israel War Would Drive Oil Prices Higher | Barron’s
A full-blown war between Iran and Israel would cause global oil prices to spike and disrupt regional economies, warned James Swanston, Middle East economist at Capital Economics. Several top Iranian military officials were killed in an airstrike in Damascus on Monday, threatening to bring simmering tensions with Israel to a head and representing, Swanston noted, the tensest moment for Iran since 2019, when conflict with the U.S. looked possible. As an important supplier of crude oil, Iran becoming involved in outright war would push oil prices higher, and all the more so if nearby Gulf states were dragged in, Swanston said. Iran's economy, as well as those of its neighbors, would also risk serious contraction, he says.
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
Israeli Embassies Around The World Put On High Alert Amid Iranian Threats | Jerusalem Post
Israeli embassies across the globe were placed on high alert following increasing threats of an Iranian attack on Israeli diplomats, sources confirmed to The Jerusalem Post on Thursday. Additionally, some ambassadors have been requested not to arrive at public events over fears for their security. These reports come following an alleged Israeli strike on Syria, which killed senior Iranian Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) member Mohammad Reza Zahedi. According to Israeli media, diplomats serving abroad have expressed their concern that their embassies will be the target of Iranian retaliation. Earlier, Israel denied reports that claimed it withdrew its ambassadors and evacuated its embassies in multiple locations around the world. According to initial reports, this decision denied by Israel was made in agreement between the Foreign Ministry and Israel's Shin Bet.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran executed 853 people in 2023 – the highest number on record since 2015, according to a new report in Amnesty International. The surge in executions comes as Iran continues what Amnesty calls Iran’s “war on drugs.” In 2023, more than half – 481 – of the total executions were for drug-related offenses. The mass deployment of the death penalty comes after Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s election in 2021, when Gholamhossein Eje’i was also appointed head of the judiciary. Amnesty points to the “lethal shift” in their anti-narcotics policy as a key driver of the spike in death sentences. In 2023, total executions increased by 48 percent from 2022 and by 172 percent from 2021. Drug-related offenses – which made up 56 percent of total executions in 2023 – saw that spike very acutely. In 2023, drug-related executions increased by 89 percent from 2022 and by 264 percent from 2021.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Israel Warns Of Consequences To Any Attack From Iran | Axios
Israel told the U.S. if Iran launches an attack from its soil against Israel in retaliation for its deadly strike in Syria earlier this week, it would draw a strong response from Israel and take the current conflict to another level, Israeli officials tell Axios. Why it matters: Iranian officials have publicly threatened to retaliate against Israel for the attack that killed a top Iranian official. The Biden administration and the Israeli government are highly concerned Iran is preparing for an imminent attack, U.S. and Israeli officials said. Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Gaza have attacked Israel but there hasn't been an attack from Iranian soil A direct Iranian strike on Israel would be unprecedented and could lead to a regional war in the Middle East. The latest: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the top of an Israeli security cabinet meeting on Thursday that Iran has been operating against Israel for years "both directly and via its proxies, and therefore Israel is operating against Iran and its proxies, both defensively and offensively."
Houthis Say 37 Killed In Hundreds Of US, UK Air Strikes | Iran International
Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen said on Thursday that just 37 people were killed and 30 wounded in 424 US and British airstrikes on their military sites involved in attacking ships in the Red Sea. The Houthis, who control Yemen's capital and most populous areas, have attacked international shipping in the Red Sea since November in solidarity with the Palestinians in the war between Israel and Hamas militants, drawing US and British retaliatory strikes since February. The attacks began after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urged Muslims to blockade Israel. Abdul Malik Al-Houthi, the leader of the pro-Iran rebels, in a televised speech said 90 ships had been targeted in the Red Sea and drone attacks had increased and expanded to additional regions. He said 34 attacks had been launched in a month, using 125 ballistic missiles and drones. The Houthi attacks have disrupted global shipping, forcing firms to take longer and more expensive journeys around the southern tip of Africa.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iranians Brand Government As Toothless Following Militant Attack | Iran International
In the wake of a spate of deadly militant attacks in southeastern Iran, criticism of the government's intelligence and security failures has intensified, labeling it a "paper tiger." Iran International has been flooded with messages from viewers critical of the Iranian government. These messages highlight a perceived discrepancy between the government's harsh treatment of its own citizens and its apparent inefficacy in dealing with external threats. In a late-night attack on Wednesday, the Sunni militant group Jaish ul-Adl targeted at least five military posts and Revolutionary Guard bases in the cities of Chabahar and Rask. Clashes continued throughout the night, with the government announcing the neutralization of all attackers by Friday noon. At least 28 individuals were killed in the clashes, including 18 militants and 10 Iranian military personnel. Full casualty figures for the injured are unavailable, but reports indicate at least 15 Guards were wounded from a single unit. Jaish ul-Adl has a well-documented history of targeting Iranian forces, particularly the Revolutionary Guards, in areas bordering Pakistan. Designated a foreign terrorist organization by the US in 2010, the group has also been implicated in civilian casualties from past bombings.
Iran’s Grasp Is Loosening On Its Eastern Borders | FDD Long War Journal
On April 4, Iranian media reported a series of attacks by the Baluch separatist group Jaish al-Adl in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan Province. The militants claimed they targeted six regime outposts in the port city of Chabahar and the border town Rask, which are more than 100 miles apart. Gunmen targeted four government buildings in Chabahar, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Force’s (IRGC) Chabahar Headquarters, the Maritime Division of the local Border Guard Command, the local law enforcement’s Criminal Investigation Department, and a local police station. Rask, situated on Iran’s border with Pakistan, saw similar-style offenses on the IRGC regional base and the local IRGC outpost. According to state media, 18 militants and 11 regime security personnel, including 7 IRGC members, were killed in the clashes. Jaish al-Adl, preceded by Jundallah, is a Sunni Blouch separatist group designated by both the United States and Iran as a terrorist entity. Despite the group characterizing itself as the defender of Baluch rights, the Islamic Republic labels them as “Zionist conspirators.”
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
How Pragmatism Drives Azerbaijan-Iran Shift On Regional Transit | Amwaj Media
After rising confrontation and a war of words in recent years, Azerbaijan and Iran have returned to the diplomatic track—emphasizing regional connectivity and infrastructure projects based on pragmatism. Having pursued coercive diplomacy to contain the rising influence of Israel and Turkey in Azerbaijan since 2020, Tehran has opted for reversive diplomacy towards Baku to de-escalate tensions. The shift is part of a broader Iranian strategy of seeking rapprochement with neighboring states, including Saudi Arabia. Regional infrastructure projects lie at the heart of the current pragmatism in the Azerbaijan-Iran relationship, putting political disputes on the back burner. In Oct. 2023, Baku and Tehran laid the foundation for a new route connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through Iranian territory. The ceremony gathered Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev and Iran’s Minister of Roads and Urban Development Mehrdad Bazrpash.