TOP STORIES
Iran has further increased its total stockpile of uranium, according to a report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog seen by The Associated Press on Monday, and it continues to bar the agency’s most seasoned inspectors from monitoring its nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency also said in a second confidential report, distributed to member states, that Tehran made no progress in explaining the presence of manmade uranium particles found at two locations. The IAEA estimated in its quarterly report that as of Feb. 10, Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile was at 5,525.5 kilograms (about 12,182 pounds), an increase of 1,038.7 kilograms (2,289 pounds) since the last quarterly report in November 2023.
After U.S. Strikes, Iran’s Proxies Scale Back Attacks On American Bases | New York Times
Iran has made a concerted effort to rein in militias in Iraq and Syria after the United States retaliated with a series of airstrikes for the killing of three U.S. Army reservists this month. Initially, there were regional concerns that the tit-for-tat violence would lead to an escalation of the Middle East conflict. But since the Feb. 2 U.S. strikes, American officials say, there have been no attacks by Iran-backed militias on American bases in Iraq and only two minor ones in Syria. Before then, the U.S. military logged at least 170 attacks against American troops in four months, Pentagon officials said. The relative quiet reflects decisions by both sides and suggests that Iran does have some level of control over the militias. The Biden administration has made clear that Tehran would be held accountable for miscalculations and operations by proxy forces, but it has avoided any direct attack on Iran. The U.S. response “may be having some effect,” Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., a retired head of the Pentagon’s Central Command, said in an interview. “The question is are the militias attacking or not,” he added, “and at least for now, they are not.”
Israeli Airstrikes In Lebanon's Bekaa Valley Kills Hezbollah Militants | Iran International
Israeli airstrikes struck Lebanon's Bekaa Valley on Monday; the deepest point targeted since hostilities began in mid-October resulting in the deaths of two members of Iran-backed Hezbollah. The strikes mark a significant escalation, representing attack on targets that are almost 100 kilometers from the traditional front. Iran provides significant support to Hezbollah, as well as several other groups in the region designated as terrorist organizations, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen. The Israeli military confirmed that the airstrikes targeted Hezbollah's air defenses in the Bekaa Valley in response to the downing of an Israeli drone by Hezbollah using a surface-to-air missile. In retaliation to the air strikes, Hezbollah launched 60 Katyusha rockets at an Israeli military headquarters heightening tensions in the region amidst the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Hezbollah politician Hassan Fadlallah said in televised remarks delivered at the funeral of a Hezbollah fighter killed in recent days that "Its [Israel’s] aggression on Baalbek or any other areas will not remain without response."
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
IAEA Increasingly Concerned Over Iran’s Nuclear Weapon Capability | AFP
The UN nuclear watchdog has voiced growing concern over Iran’s ability to build nuclear weapons, fuelled by public statements in the country, a confidential report seen by AFP said. Tensions between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have repeatedly flared up since a 2015 deal curbing Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanction relief fell apart. In the report, IAEA head Rafael Grossi says that “public statements made in Iran regarding its technical capabilities to produce nuclear weapons only increase the director general’s concerns about the correctness and completeness of Iran’s safeguards declarations.”
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Iran-Backed Houthis Cause 300% Surge To UK Business Costs Via Blockade | Iran International
Recent attacks on cargo ships by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have affected British retailers and exporters, with more than half feeling the impact. According to a survey by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), the shipping costs from Asia to Europe have surged by up to 300% for certain businesses, while logistical delays have extended delivery times by three to four weeks. Such delays are causing cashflow challenges and shortages of components on production lines, impacting the economy at large. The Houthi rebels, backed by Iran and controlling significant parts of north-western Yemen, have been targeting merchant vessels in the region since November. They claim the actions are in solidarity with Palestinians amid the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. In response to the disruptions, the US and the UK have conducted airstrikes against 18 Houthitargets in Yemen over the weekend, including weapons storage facilities. However, despite the efforts, the disruption persists with no sign of abating.
Economic Pain Casts Dark Shadow As Iranians Go To Vote | France 24
In the minds of many voters, economic hardship is indeed the most burning issue as the Islamic republic suffers under punishing international sanctions and rapid inflation. At Tehran's storied Grand Bazaar, many shoppers are simply wandering the warren of aisles without buying anything, as prices have skyrocketed in recent years. Many doubt that a quick solution is in sight -- among them 62-year-old retiree Aliasghari, who said he wished the politicians would "stop the empty slogans". "The economic situation is extremely troubling," said the pensioner walking through the labyrinthine market, who asked not to be fully named as he discussed the sensitive issue. Citizens "are hearing a lot of fabrications and they have lost their trust in voting," he said, adding that "none of my family members are willing to take part in the elections."
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
Iran Media Exploits Death Of US Airman Who Set Himself On Fire | Jerusalem Post
Iranian state media has sought to exploit the death of Aaron Bushnell, a 25-year-old member of the US Air Force who set himself on fire outside the Israeli Embassy on Sunday. Bushnell died as a result of his actions. He claimed he did it because of the war in Gaza and created a short video that showed him walking up and dousing himself in liquid before setting himself on fire. First responders attempted to help and put out the fire but were unsuccessful in saving him. Iran’s Press TV put out an image of Bushnell on X and has sought to exploit the tragedy, which is clear from the fact that Iranian media in Farsi does not appear to have the same level of adoration for the act - likely because burning oneself alive is not considered acceptable in Iran, but Iranian regime media in English wants to use this to create more of a crisis around the war in Gaza.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran Court Changes Jail Time To Home Confinement For Pop Singer | Voice Of America
An Iranian court has changed the sentence against a pop singer who criticized the mandatory headscarf for women to home confinement instead of jail time, due to health issues, his lawyer said. Mehdi Yarrahi, 42, was arrested in August for releasing an "illegal song" that challenged "the morals and customs of Islamic society." He was released on bail in October. In January, the court sentenced Yarrahi to "a total of two years and eight months in prison" on multiple charges. Under Iranian law jail sentences run concurrently, meaning he would only have to have served one year behind bars, which will now be changed to home confinement. "Due to my client's illness and his need for medical care, the one-year imprisonment was changed to electronic tagging [bound with a movement radius of 1,000 meters]," lawyer Zahra Minouei said on X, formerly Twitter, late Sunday.
270 Prominent Civil, Political Activists Boycott Elections In Iran | Asharq Al Awsat
More than 270 Iranian civil and political activists issued a statement confirming their boycott of the legislative elections, scheduled for Friday, accusing the authorities of "engineering" and "staging" the polls. Iran’s upcoming elections are the first since the outbreak of the protests that shook the country at the end of 2022, following the death of the young woman, Mahsa Amini, days after the morality police arrested her. Experts expect the voter turnout to be low, reaching its lowest level since the establishment of Iran in 1979. The activists' statement, including former officials and representatives, stated that the elections "reached a more deplorable situation, even compared to the previous elections.” Calls to boycott the elections increased after the Guardian Council rejected the requests of prominent reformist candidates.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
IAF Establishes New Department To Combat The Growing Threat Of Iran | Jerusalem Post
The Israel Air Force under commander Maj.-Gen. Tomer Bar has officially established an Iran department in response to Tehran's growing threat against Israel. This department will handle all military preparations for potential future attacks by Iran, and is mainly set to combat the Iranian nuclear program. The decision to establish an Iran department has been in the works for a long time, but it only recently received official recognition in an IDF announcement. Official sources within the security establishment stated that this move intends to signal a warning not only to Iran, but also to the United States, which has been criticized by some for its poorer handling of the Iranian nuclear program, as well as the funding of Iran's terrorist influence in the Middle East. While the United States is preoccupied with potential escalation in Iran, terrorism, and nuclear weapons, the IDF is signaling the extent of its intentions to put a reliable military option on the table.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
'Become Stronger': Iranians Urged To Vote As Mideast Tensions Soar | Al-Monitor
In the Iranian shrine city of Qom, huge street banners remind voters to head to the polls in Friday's parliamentary elections, held as the Gaza war stokes Middle East tensions. Voters in the Islamic republic will pick a new parliament for another four years, as well as members of the Assembly of Experts in charge of electing Iran's supreme leader. The vote comes amid a biting economic crisis and will be the first since Iran was rocked by nationwide protests over the death of Iranian Kurd Mahsa Amini, 22, after her arrest for allegedly violating the strict dress code for women. Large posters around Qom -- around 120 kilometres (75 miles) south of the capital Tehran -- show Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in front of a ballot box, with a message urging people to vote in order for Iran "to become stronger". Islamic theology student Mohammad Jafari said he will heed the call, voicing hope that the election will strengthen Iran at a time its arch enemy Israel is fighting a devastating war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
No Longer Afraid Of Sparking War, Israel Takes Gloves Off Against IRGC In Syria | Times Of Israel
Israel’s years-long air campaign against Iran-linked groups and weapons in Syria appears to have shifted into high gear in recent months, with strikes on high-value targets at a pace that is “changing the rules of the game,” according to experts. Although Israeli attacks on Iran-sponsored weapons transfers and Tehran-backed militias, including Hezbollah, go back to at least 2013, the air force is now unleashing more frequent operations that include assassinations of Iranian officials. Those on the ground have taken notice. In just the last few days, Israeli jets hit two members of the Hezbollah terror group traveling in a truck near the Syrian-Lebanon border Sunday morning, and bombed a residential building in an upscale neighborhood of the Syrian capital Damascus frequented by leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, killing two people, according to local news sources. Tehran’s media sources claimed that no citizens of the Islamic Republic were killed.
AFGHANISTAN & IRAN
Taliban Trade Delegation Announces $35m Investment In Iran | Iran International
An Afghan trade delegation has announced construction and investment deals worth $35m in Iran's southern port of Chabahar. Hassan Kazemi Qomi, Iran's ambassador in Afghanistan, said that the delegation has commenced work on “various projects including commercial, residential, and administrative ventures, backed by a $35 million investment.” The move comes against the backdrop of Iran's recent measures towards Afghan refugees, including reported widespread expulsions with speculation that the latest move will see many of the illegal workers put through a formal system. Amid ongoing border tensions, Afghans were in December, banned from living in 16 Iranian provinces. The influx of Afghan workers, particularly in the construction sector, has faced criticism within Iran, facing allegations of taking jobs away from Iranians amid a deep economic crisis.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Obstacles Hinder Progress Of Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline | Iran International
Iran and Pakistan once again are aiming to revive a gas pipeline project that has been languishing for more than a decade, amid sanctions and bilateral issues between the two neighbors. The Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, commonly known as the Peace pipeline or IP Gas, is a complex initiative influenced by geopolitical tensions, economic factors, and international sanctions. Initially designed to transport natural gas from Iran to Pakistan, the project has encountered numerous challenges since its inception. In March 2013, Presidents Zardari and Ahmadinejad inaugurated the project near Iran's Chabahar port, signaling the start of the USD 7.5 billion venture. However, progress stalled due to US sanctions on Iran, despite Iran completing its portion of the pipeline. Negotiations must conclude by March 2024 to avoid legal complications, with Islamabad having until September 2024 to fulfill its obligations. Both nations are exploring strategies to complete the pipeline outside the scope of US sanctions, emphasizing the project's importance for their national interests.
MISCELLANEOUS
Iran’s FM In Geneva For UN, ICRC Meetings | Jerusalem Post
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian arrived in Geneva on Monday for meetings with UN officials and the International Committee of the Red Cross. Iranian Mehr news media reported that he is visiting to “attend [and speak at] the 55th session of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC).” His speech attacked Israel and urged the council to hold it to account for its crimes. Iran’s attempt to deflect attention from its own human rights crimes is ironic. According to Iran’s Tasnim News, Amir-Abdollahian met with ICRC head Mirjana Spoljaric Egger, thanking the ICRC for its efforts “regarding Palestine and Gaza.” The premier aid organization has not yet met with any of the Israeli hostages held captive in Gaza by Hamas since October 7.