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Ten Houthi drones being prepared to launch towards ships in the Red Sea were hit overnight by US air strikes, an operation later confirmed by Centcom, the US headquarters in the Middle East. The Iran-backed group claimed on Thursday to have struck another commercial ship with a missile. UK maritime security company Ambrey said a vessel reported an explosion south of Aden, but offered no further details, while a Houthi spokesman said "a number of appropriate missiles", had been fired at the KOI, which had been struck. The Houthis said the KOI was an American vessel en route to ports in "occupied Palestine", although shipping data on the vessel, analysed by energy analyst Noam Raydan, said the ship followed a set path between several ports in South Asia, the Middle East and Europe, but not Israel. The US meanwhile continued what it called "defensive" raids against Houthi missile positions.
The United States on Wednesday attributed the drone attack that killed three U.S. service members in Jordan to the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-backed militias, as President Joe Biden weighs his options to respond to the strike. Iran threatened to “decisively respond” to any U.S. attack on the Islamic Republic after the U.S. said it held Tehran responsible. The U.S. has signaled it is preparing for retaliatory strikes in the Mideast in the wake of the Sunday drone attack that also wounded more than 40 troops at Tower 22, a secretive base in northeastern Jordan that’s been crucial to the American presence in neighboring Syria. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Wednesday the U.S. believes the attack was planned, resourced and facilitated by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group that includes the militant group Kataib Hezbollah. He said Biden “believes that it is important to respond in an appropriate way.”
A bipartisan group of 62 House members wrote to President Joe Biden on Tuesday calling for the administration to crack down on enforcing oil sanctions on Iran in the wake of the Oct. 7 terror attack on Israel and the increase in Iranian proxy activity throughout the Middle East in the ensuing four months. “In the wake of the October 7th terror attacks and subsequent attacks by Iran-backed proxies on U.S. forces in the Middle East, the administration must adopt a zero-tolerance policy regarding Iran’s lucrative oil exports,” the letter reads. “These exports provide a crucial lifeline to sustain and expand Tehran’s sponsorship of terrorist groups that seek the destruction of Israel. They must be stopped.”
UANI IN THE NEWS
... Brodsky explained that while each of the individual terror proxies had their own “local agenda” and did not necessarily receive “orders” from Tehran, yet Iran’s “continuing flow of funds, material, and training are effectively a green light for its Axis of Resistance to continue destabilizing various regional battlefields.” “Iran’s military doctrine focuses on asymmetric warfare to protect its leadership and to compensate for its lack of conventional military capabilities after years of sanctions,” he said. “The U.S. and its allies must pierce that veil of deniability to deter the Iranian leadership,” Brodsky added. “That requires a direct response to Iranian provocations on targets in Iran.”
Recognizing Challenge Presented By Houthis, EU Moves To Protect Red Sea Ships | New York Sun
… The purpose is “protection of the ships,” Mr. Borrell told reporters Wednesday. “Intercepting of the attacks against the ships. Not participating in any kinds of actions against the Houthis. Only blocking the attacks of the Houthis.” In limiting itself, the EU will fail to deter the Yemeni Houthis who have been attacking ships in the Red Sea, where 1 percent of world commerce travels, the policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, Jason Brodsky, tells the Sun. Further, “it will do nothing to influence the Islamic Republic’s strategy.” Yet, by deciding to beef up the Western presence in the Red Sea, the EU is recognizing the challenge presented by the Houthis, including to commerce involving Israel, a rising economic power and the EU’s 25th largest trading partner.
Analysis: Iran Doesn’t Want War With The US Despite Chest-Beating, Rhetoric | Al-Arabiya News
“… I do not believe President Biden will directly attack Iran,” said Saeid Golkar, an associate professor of Political Science at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga and senior advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran. Golkar told Al Arabiya English that Biden was more likely to order attacks on Iran-linked targets inside Syria and Iraq instead. “Based on Biden’s initial reactions and the portfolios of his national security team, I am skeptical that an attack inside Iran will occur,” he said. Ali Fathollah-Nejad, director of the Center for Middle East and Global Order, agreed that a direct strike by the US on Iranian soil is improbable. He said the US could target Iran-linked sites elsewhere in the region.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
America Is Subsidizing Iran’s Fight Against America | Bloomberg
President Joe Biden has promised to “hold all those responsible to account” after a series of weekend attacks against American troops in the Middle East, blaming Iranian-backed militias. The response, he said, would come “at a time and in a manner [of] our choosing.” Undoubtedly, the Pentagon will present the White House with military options. But there’s another manner in which to respond: Close the petrodollar spigot. Over the last year or so, Iran has been able to boost its oil production to a five-year high of about 3.2 million barrels a day, earnings billions of dollars in the process. And that’s despite draconian US sanctions precisely targeting, at least on paper, Iran’s oil industry. The extra money is bankrolling the country and, by extension, its proxies in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon.
MISSILE PROGRAM
US Alleges Chinese Fugitives Smuggled Missile Parts To Iran | Bloomberg Law
The Justice Department charged four Chinese nationals with smuggling American electronics to supply Iranian weapons production, the latest use of export controls enforcement to target foreign adversaries. A federal indictment in Washington alleges the defendants schemed since at least 2007 to export the dual-use parts used in the missile and aerospace industries through front companies in China and Hong Kong. They allegedly concealed that the technology was eventually sent to sanctioned Iranian companies with ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran’s defense ministry. The indictment flowed from the “disruptive technology strike force.”
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
Hostage Families Demand $1 Billion Over Iran’s Support For Hamas | Bloomberg
More than 60 US citizens and their family members who were killed, injured or taken hostage in the Hamas attack on Israel sued Iran, demanding upwards of $1 billion from the Islamic Republic for aiding the terrorist organization. The lawsuit filed Wednesday night in federal court in Washington DC includes vivid details and photographs of the violence that unfolded on Oct. 7, when Hamas attacked southern Israel from the Gaza strip, igniting a war in the Middle East.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Trump, Biden Camps Trade Blame Over Who Led To The Iranian Problem | Politico
Advisers to Donald Trump and Joe Biden are trading jabs this week over which president is more to blame for Iran’s latest deadly actions, as both men head toward a rematch in November to be the next commander in chief. The accusations come as the White House weighs its response to the drone attack that killed three soldiers in Jordan this weekend, bringing with it the risk that any retaliation could further inflame an already volatile situation in the Middle East. The military and policy decisions leading up to last weekend’s violence are many. Trump’s ordered assassination of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani. Biden’s lifting of sanctions on Tehran. Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal. Biden’s response to Iran-backed attacks on U.S. troops. Each of these actions emboldened Iran or staved off war — depending on who you ask. When it comes to Iran policy, both sides are right in some respects and wrong in others, but they have one thing in common: Both are spinning.
Ex-Presidential Advisor Urges Iran To Negotiate With US | Iran International
Hesamoddin Ashena, a former presidential advisor under Hassan Rouhani, has advocated for talks with the United States amid brewing regional conflict. Suggesting this is the opportune moment for dialogue, Ashena wrote on X, "If one believes negotiations must occur from a position of strength, then is now the time?" It comes in the wake of an Iran-backed proxy attack on US troops in Jordan, which left three US personnel died on Sunday, leaving questions for the Biden administration as to what comes next in the face of an emboldened Iran. Tensions between Iran and the US have reached a new level since the Gaza war, when over 160 Iran-backed proxy attacks have targeted US facilities and personnel in Iraq and Syria, as well as the Red Sea shipping routes. They claim to be acting in allegiance with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
An Execution Binge In Iran | Time
The Islamic Republic authorities in Iran are going on an execution binge, using the spiraling instability and conflicts in the Middle East — in which they are complicit — as a smokescreen for their crimes against the Iranian people. On January 22, the mother of Mohammad Ghobadlou, a 23-year-old street protester in the “Woman Life Freedom” uprising in Iran, made an emotional videotape pleading for her son’s life to be spared. Ghobadlou was bipolar and his death sentence had been quashed by the Supreme Court. A retrial involving an adequate mental health assessment had been ordered in July 2023. Despite this, his execution took place a day after his mother’s appeal, with only a 12-hour notice to his lawyer because Iran’s Chief Justice vetoed the retrial and made sure Ghobadlou was secretly sentenced to death.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Israel-Hamas War: U.S. Readies Weeks Of Retaliatory Strikes Against Iran-Linked Targets | NBC News
U.S. retaliatory attacks against Iran-backed militants will be a “campaign” that could last “weeks,” officials told NBC News. The targets are expected to include Iranian targets outside Iran, and the campaign will involve both strikes and cyber operations. Tehran has warned it would respond decisively to any attack on its territory or interests after President Joe Biden said he had decided how to retaliate for the drone strike on a base in Jordan that killed three American service members.
US Sees Signs Iran Is Worried About Escalating Proxy Attacks Amid Heightened Tensions | CNN Politics
US officials believe there are signs that Iranian leadership is nervous about some of the actions of its proxy groups in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, according to multiple people familiar with US intelligence, as attacks from militia groups threaten to disrupt the global economy and significantly up the risk of direct confrontation with the United States. The drone attack that killed three American soldiers at a US outpost in Jordan, which the US has attributed to the Iran-backed umbrella group Islamic Resistance in Iraq, caught Tehran by surprise and worried political leadership there, officials told CNN, citing US intelligence. Iran-backed militants have launched over 160 attacks on US forces since October. And while Iran has long funded, equipped, and trained its proxy militias in the region with the goal of attacking Americans, the strike from this past weekend was the first to kill US service members since the near daily assaults began four months ago.
While Small In Number, Tajik Fighters An Asset For Islamic State-Khorasan | Voice Of America
The Iranian government has traced this month's twin suicide bombings in Kerman city to ethnic-Tajik fighters of the Islamic State Khorasan Province who, experts say, are "fairly small" in number but play "an important part" in the group's military activities. The Afghanistan-based branch of the Islamic State (IS-K) claimed responsibility for the January 3 blasts that killed at least 95 people attending the commemoration of the death of Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force, who was killed in a January 2020 U.S. drone attack in Iraq. A day after the Kerman city attack, top Iranian officials, including President Ebrahim Raisi and IRGC Commander Hossein Salami, claimed that Israel and the U.S. were behind the attack, without offering any evidence.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Lighting fires that brightened the night sky, followers of Iran’s minority Zoroastrian religion marked the Sadeh festival in several cities, celebrating the end of the coldest winter days. Every year on Jan. 30, Zoroastrians gather after sunset to celebrate the 50 days and 50 nights remaining to Spring. Sadah, which means “the one hundred,” is an ancient feast from when the religion was the dominant faith in the powerful Persian empire, which collapsed after the Arab invasion in the 7th century. On the southwestern outskirts of Tehran Tuesday evening, several Zoroastrian priests and priestesses, dressed in white from head-to-toe to symbolize purity, led young followers to light a giant bonfire in a joyful ceremony. Around the fire, people listened to bands playing music, theological lectures as they milled about eating and celebrating. In a rare move, the Islamic Republic’s air force band played the national anthem among other tunes to the excitement of the attendees.
Iran’s Upcoming Elections Turn Into Farce In Some Districts | Iran International
Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi faces an unusual challenge as he needs just one vote to secure reelection on March 1 to the Assembly of Experts in a small district. When selecting his constituency last year, he could have announced his candidacy from Tehran, where he works and resides, or from Qom, the home of the Shiite seminary where he claims to be a 'ostad,' loosely translated as a professor. However, he was aware that candidates from Tehran require between 200,000 to half a million votes to secure a seat in the Assembly of Experts, while in small rural district, a mere 200 votes would suffice. With the Guardian Council disqualifying all four clerics who competed against Raisi, it has essentially become a one-man show, and according to Iranian election laws, he could even cast that one ballot himself.
CONGRESS & IRAN
Rubio, Colleagues To Biden: Strengthen Enforcement Of Iran Sanctions | US Senator Marco Rubio
Since the start of Hamas’s brutal assault against Israel on October 7, 2024, there have been more than 140 attacks against U.S. troops. U.S. Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Maggie Hassan (D-NH) led a group of bipartisan colleagues in sending a letter to President Joe Biden calling on him to enforce current law and act against Iran’s illicit oil trade through sanctions. The Senators also encouraged support for proposed legislation pending in the U.S. Senate. Joining Rubio and Hassan were Senators Jim Risch (R-ID), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Mike Crapo (R-ID), Bob Casey (D-PA), Bill Hagerty (R-TN), John Fetterman (D-PA), Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), Rick Scott (R-FL), Katie Boyd Britt (R-AL), Deb Fischer (R-NE), Ted Budd (R-NC), John Cornyn (R-TX), and Pete Ricketts (R-NE).