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The US’ response to the drone attack in Jordan that killed and wounded US service members on Sunday is likely to be more powerful than previous American retaliatory strikes in Iraq and Syria, officials told CNN, though the Pentagon and White House are being careful not to telegraph the administration’s plans. President Joe Biden is under increasing pressure to respond in a way that stops these attacks for good. Iran-backed militants have targeted US military facilities in Iraq and Syria over 160 times since October, and several Republican lawmakers have called for the US to hit inside Iran directly to send a clear message. But the biggest challenge now for the Biden administration is how to respond to the drone strike – the deadliest attack on US forces in the region since the bombing at Abbey Gate killed 13 US service members in the closing days of the Afghanistan withdrawal – without sparking a regional war.
Biden Faces Pressure To Strike Iran After US Troops Killed | Reuters
The killing of three U.S. troops and wounding of dozens more on Sunday by Iran-backed militants is piling political pressure on President Joe Biden to deal a blow directly against Iran, a move he's been reluctant to do out of fear of igniting a broader war. Biden's response options could range anywhere from targeting Iranian forces outside to even inside Iran, or opting for a more cautious retaliatory attack solely against the Iran-backed militants responsible, experts say. American forces in the Middle East have been attacked more than 150 times by Iran-backed forces in Iraq, Syria, Jordan and off the coast of Yemen since the Israel-Hamas war erupted in October. But until Sunday's attack on a remote outpost known as Tower 22 near Jordan's northeastern border with Syria, the strikes had not killed U.S. troops nor wounded so man.
Iran Urges Diplomacy As US Weighs Response To Deadly Attack | Bloomberg
Iran urged the US to use diplomacy to ease tensions in the Middle East, as Tehran braces for a military response to a deadly attack on an American base over the weekend. The foreign minister of the Islamic Republic said “active” diplomacy is underway to find a political solution to the war in Gaza and the regional fallout, without elaborating. “The White House knows very well” that the way to end the war “and the current crisis in the region is political,” Hossein Amirabdollahian said in a post on X. The comments came as the US weighs how to retaliate against a deadly attack on a base in Jordan that killed three American soldiers and injured dozens.
UANI IN THE NEWS
The World At One | UANI IRGC Research Director Kasra Aarabi Interview With BBC Radio 4
I joined @BBCWorldatOne to clear some of the confusion over the nature of the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq”, which killed 3 US troops yesterday, and its ties to Iran’s regime. Key takeaway: This is an umbrella group made up of proxies created and controlled by Iran’s IRGC @UANI @BBCRadio4.
… Director of IRGC Research at United Against Nuclear Iran, Kasra Aarabi, said there was no doubt Iran was responsible for the attack. He told The Sun: "Of course Tehran will claim that it had nothing to do with this attack, but that goes to the heart of its strategy, which is plausible deniability. "The regime in Iran uses its network of terrorist militias to conduct attacks on the West, the United States, the United Kingdom, and doing so with enough plausible deniability to avoid any consequences, any direct consequences, being imposed. "So this is classic IRGC modus operandi, and there is no doubt that the IRGC is responsible for this attack." Mr Aarabi continued: "The IRGC believes that the US has zero appetite to impose direct consequences on it, and that's what's pushing this drive for escalation since October 7th.
… The Sunday attack “isn’t merely state sponsorship of terrorism — it is an act of war,” the chairman of United Against Nuclear Iran, Joseph Lieberman, and CEO, Mark Wallace, said in a statement Sunday, adding that “dozens of attacks against U.S. military personnel have gone unanswered” by Mr. Biden. Administration officials have fingered an Iran-backed force in Iraq, Kataib Hezbollah, as the most likely suspect behind the attack. If so, one target for Western retaliation could be “Abdul Reza Mesgarian, the commander IRGC Quds Force Ramadan HQ, which oversees Quds Force operations in Iraq,” UANI’s policy director, Jason Brodsky, writes on X.
After more than 170 attempts since October, the proxies of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have succeeded in killing three US soldiers and injuring 25 in on the Jordan-Syria border. The US must respond now, and it must hold the IRGC directly accountable. Washington should conduct targeted strikes against senior IRGC commanders – a course of action that would send a clear message to the regime in Iran and make it think twice about escalating further. For decades, the mainstream view among so-called policy “experts” in the Washington and Westminster bubble has been that targeted strikes against the IRGC increases the chance of all-out war with Tehran. This popular narrative that such action will lead to “World War 3” has shaped the Biden administration’s reluctance to respond to Tehran’s consistent acts of aggression since October 7, including sponsored attacks on US forces. But is the fear of what the IRGC would do in such a scenario worse than the reality? Past experiences seem to suggest so.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
US, UK Impose Sanctions On Network That Targeted Iran Dissidents For Assassination | Reuters
The United States and Britain on Monday imposed sanctions on a network of people who targeted Iranian dissidents and opposition activists for assassination at Iran's direction, the U.S. Treasury Department said on Monday. The U.S. Treasury in a statement accused the network of being directed by Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and Security and put sanctions on 11 people connected to it, including Iranian narcotics trafficker Naji Ibrahim Sharifi-Zindashti, who it said is the leader.
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
U.S. Charges 3 For Alleged Murder-For-Hire Plot To Kill Iranian Defector In Maryland | NPR
The U.S. Justice Department announced charges Monday against an Iranian national and two Canadians, including a member of the Hells Angels motorcycle gang, for allegedly plotting to assassinate an Iranian defector living in Maryland. The indictment unsealed in federal court in Minnesota is at least the third Iran-based murder-for-hire plot prosecuted by the Justice Department since 2022. The targets in the previous cases were former U.S. national security adviser John Bolton and a New York-based Iranian-American journalist. Prosecutors say the latest alleged plot was orchestrated by an Iranian national, Naji Sharifi Zindashti, but the indictment does not accuse the Iranian government of directing the scheme. However, the U.S. Treasury Department on Monday announced sanctions against Zindashti, and described him as a drug trafficker who leads a network that targets Iranian dissidents for assassination and kidnapping at the behest of the Iranian government.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Pentagon Says It Is Not Seeking War With Iran After Jordan Attack | Reuters
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Monday vowed the U.S. would take "all necessary actions" to defend its troops after a deadly drone attack in Jordan by Iran-backed militants, even as President Joe Biden's administration stressed it was not seeking a war with Iran. The attack on Sunday killed three U.S. soldiers and wounded more than 40 troops. It was the first deadly strike against U.S. troops since the Israel-Hamas war erupted in October and marks a major escalation in tensions that have engulfed the Middle East. "Let me start with my outrage and sorrow (for) the deaths of three brave U.S. troops in Jordan and for the other troops who were wounded," Austin said at the Pentagon. "The president and I will not tolerate attacks on U.S. forces and we will take all necessary actions to defend the U.S. and our troops," Austin added at the start of meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the Pentagon.
Haley Calls For US To ‘Take Out’ Iranian Leaders Responsible For Deadly Strikes | The Hill
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley called for the United States to conduct targeted strikes to “take out” Iranian leaders responsible for attacks against U.S. service members in the Middle East. Haley in an interview Monday on Fox News outlined how she thinks President Biden should respond to the latest attack, which killed three U.S. troops, saying, “This is not about hitting Iran hard. This is about hitting Iran smart.” “He needs to go after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, he needs to go after the leadership there, those that are making the decisions. That’s what leaves them flat-footed,” the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations said on Fox News’ “America Reports.”
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
How The Enemy Drone That Killed 3 US Soldiers In Jordan Evaded Detection | Politico
An enemy drone launched by Iranian proxies that killed three U.S. soldiers was able to evade detection by approaching the base in Jordan as a U.S. drone was returning to the facility, according to a Defense Department official. The attackers, members of an Iran-backed militia, saw an “opportunity” and “exploited” it, said the official, who was granted anonymity to discuss a developing security situation. The assault, which dramatically escalated the situation in the Middle East, has put renewed pressure on the Biden administration to respond more forcefully to the more than 160 attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq, Syria and now Jordan. And former senior military officials are now calling on Biden to respond forcefully, including to strike back at Iran itself.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iran's Guardian Council Bars Candidates To Secure Succession Plans | Iran International
Critics argue that barring certain candidates from the Assembly of Experts elections, is an attempt to safeguard leadership plans in the event of Ali Khamenei’s death. The Guardian Council, with powers to vet candidates, announced the results for the upcoming elections on March 1. The Assembly of Experts is the constitutionally designated body to select the future Supreme Leader, as it once did in 1989, when Ali Khamenei was chosen after the death of Ruhollah Khomeini. The Guardian Council announced its results, disqualifying former President Hassan Rouhani, a member since 2000, and Ayatollah Ahmad Parvaei, a member since 2016. Parvaei expressed his intention to comply fully with the law and hopes the Council will reconsider its decision. Meanwhile, Rouhani demands the Council publicly state the reasons for his disqualification.
CONGRESS & IRAN
Biden Faces Political Pressure To Respond 'Hard' To Iran | Iran International
… Many other Republicans also attacked Biden and his team for “appeasing” the regime in Iran and allowing it to undermine American interests in the Middle East undeterred. “The only answer to these attacks must be devastating military retaliation against Iran’s terrorist forces,” Senator Tom Cotton said in a statement. “Anything less will confirm Joe Biden as a coward.”. Many other GOP heavyweights joined in on the attack on the President , including minority leader Senator Mitch McConnell, the Armed Service Committee member Senator Rick Scott, and the committee’s Ranking Member Senator Roger Wicker. “We must respond to these repeated attacks by Iran and its proxies by striking directly against Iranian targets and its leadership,” Wicker posted on X. “The Biden administration's responses thus far have only invited more attacks. It is time to act swiftly and decisively for the whole world to see.” Some Democrats also called for action, in a clear sign of the hardening of moods on the Capitol. “Every single malignant actor responsible must be held accountable,” the House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries wrote on X.
Republicans Call To Strike Iran; Biden Pressed On Israel Weapons | The Economist
Republican lawmakers piled pressure on Joe Biden to target Iran directly after an attack on an American base in Jordan by Iranian-backed militias killed three American soldiers on Sunday. Lindsey Graham, a Republican senator, called for America to “hit Iran now”. Lloyd Austin, the defence secretary, promised to take “all necessary actions” to defend American troops in the Middle East. The deaths reportedly came after America’s army confused an enemy bomb for a surveillance drone returning to base.
House Intel Chair: Iran Must Pay - Live Updates | Politico
House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio) said Monday that Iran itself needs "to feel consequences" following a drone strike in Jordan by proxies that killed three U.S. service members. Turner told Fox News the conflict in the Middle East is now "regional" and that "this is a time where I think we actually look at, what we do to have Iran pay a price — not just their proxies."
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
An Israeli airstrike on a Damascus suburb on Monday killed and wounded several people, the Syrian military said in a statement carried by state media. Opposition activists said the area hit was a stronghold of Iran-backed groups. There was no immediate comment from Israel. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, said the strike hit a farm housing members of Lebanon’s Iran-backed militant Hezbollah group and other Iran-backed factions.
Kremlin, Asked About Potential US Strikes On Iran, Calls For All Sides To De-Escalate | Reuters
The Kremlin, asked on Tuesday about potential U.S. strikes on Iranian interests, said tensions in the Middle East were high and that steps were needed to de-escalate rather than destabilise the wider region. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Monday vowed the U.S. would take "all necessary actions" to defend its troops after a deadly drone attack in Jordan by Iran-backed militants, even as President Joe Biden's administration stressed it was not seeking a war with Iran. "We do not welcome any actions that lead to destabilisation in the region and increase tensions, especially against the backdrop of the excessive potential for conflict," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "We will not welcome the continuation of such actions, regardless of who they come from. The level of tension is high now and we need to take steps to de-escalate. This is what will prevent the conflict from spreading."
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Iran's Top Diplomat Seeks To Deescalate Tensions On Visit To Pakistan | ABC News
Pakistan and Iran on Monday agreed to work together to improve security cooperation in the wake of deadly airstrikes by Tehran and Islamabad earlier this month that killed at least 11 people, marking a significant escalation in fraught relations between the neighbors. The development came after the top Iranian diplomat, Hossein Amirabdollahian, held talks in Islamabad with his Pakistani counterpart, Jalil Abbas Jilani. The Iranian foreign minister also met with Pakistan’s caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul-Haq-Kakar. Iran-Pakistan ties were dramatically imperiled on Jan. 17, when Iran launched airstrikes in Pakistan’s restive southwestern Baluchistan province, targeting what Tehran said were hideouts of the anti-Iran Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl, or the Army of Justice. Pakistan said two children were killed and three others were wounded.