TOP STORIES
Trump Weighs Military Action Against Iran with Ceasefire “On Life Support” | Axios
“President Trump is meeting with his national security team Monday to discuss the way forward in the Iran war, including possibly resuming military action, after negotiations with the country deadlocked Sunday, three U.S. officials said. . . . One option Trump is considering is resuming ‘Project Freedom,’ the U.S. operation to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which was suspended last week. Another option is to resume the bombing campaign and strike the 25% of targets the U.S. military identified but hasn’t hit yet. The Israeli government wants Trump to order a Special Forces operation to secure Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. Israeli officials say Trump is hesitant to order such an operation because it is highly risky.”
“As Pakistan positioned itself as a diplomatic conduit between Tehran and Washington, it quietly allowed Iranian military aircraft to park on its airfields, potentially shielding them from American airstrikes, according to U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter. Iran also sent civilian aircraft to park in neighboring Afghanistan. It was not clear if military aircraft were among those flights, two of the officials told CBS News.”
The U.A.E. Has Been Secretly Carrying Out Attacks on Iran | Wall Street Journal
“The United Arab Emirates has carried out military strikes on Iran, people familiar with the matter said, casting the Gulf monarchy as an active combatant in a war in which it has been Iran’s biggest target. Its military is well-equipped with Western-made jet fighters and surveillance networks. And the attacks suggest the country is now more willing to use them to protect its economic power and growing influence across the Middle East.”
UANI IN THE NEWS
Iran Regime Power Players May Eye Russia in Assad-Style Escape as Us Talks Falter: Expert | Fox News
“‘If the situation deteriorates further, some senior [Iranian regime] figures could potentially follow a path like Bashar al-Assad’s inner circle and seek refuge in Russia,’ Middle East expert Saeid Golkar told Fox News Digital. Golkar, a senior adviser at United Against Nuclear Iran, noted that flight destinations would likely depend on rank. While top commanders like Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf might head to Moscow, lower-ranking figures would more likely seek shelter in Iraq or Afghanistan, where the IRGC maintains operational connections, he clarified.”
Interview of UANI Policy Director Jason Brodsky | Al Arabiya English
“Iran’s regime wants to try to lure the United States into a JCPOA-like deal, and President Trump is having none of it. Also, the Iranian regime wants to deprive the United States of leverage by trying to get it into a deal that solves the Strait of Hormuz issue before the nuclear issue. That sequencing is going to deprive the United States of some of its most powerful leverage, namely the blockade over Iran’s ports that are preventing it from exporting oil. I think that President Trump is standing firm in his demands, and he’s showing the world despite many speculation and media commentary to the contrary, that he is not desperate for any deal of any terms as long as he can put his name on it. He has long standing positions on Iran and he is not going to stop the pressure campaign until he achieves an end that is acceptable to him.”
Interview of UANI Research Director Daniel Roth | Fox 5 DC
“Clearly China is not coming to rescue Iran . . . China is not an Iranian ally but it throws a wrench in what the U.S. is trying to do, but clearly China wants to be on board with the U.S. more than it wants to be on board with Iran at this point, and I think President Trump will use that to America’s advantage.”
How the U.S. Is Using the Iran War to Squeeze China Ahead of Trump–Xi Summit | RodMartin.org
“The Shadow Fleet is a network of aging tankers that transport oil by obscuring their origin and destination. United Against Nuclear Iran, a U.S.-based advocacy group, has tracked more than 500 vessels serving Iranian oil in recent years.”
MILITARY MATTERS & STRAIT OF HORMUZ CRISIS
“Kuwait accused Iran on Tuesday of sending an armed paramilitary Revolutionary Guard team to launch a failed attack earlier this month on an island in the Middle East nation home to a China-funded port project. . . . Kuwait said that a team of six armed members of the Guard tried to infiltrate Bubiyan Island in the northwest corner of the Persian Gulf near Iraq and Iran on May 1. It accused the team of planning to carry out ‘hostile acts,’ without elaborating. Kuwait said that it detained four of the men, while two escaped when its forces disrupted their infiltration of the island. Kuwait that said one of its security officials had been wounded in the attack, which initially was announced on May 3 without any details.”
“The movement of the U.S. Navy’s Ohio-class nuclear submarine near Gibraltar, a British overseas territory at the southern tip of the Iberian Peninsula, has raised speculations regarding the escalation of the U.S.-Iran war. This development comes at a time when Trump rejected Iran’s response to a U.S ceasefire proposal aimed at reducing regional hostilities.”
Iran Now Defines Strait of Hormuz as Far Larger Zone, IRGC Officer Says | Reuters
“Iran has expanded its definition of the Strait of Hormuz into a ‘vast operational area’ far wider than before the Iran war, according to a senior officer in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy. . . . Fars and Tasnim, another Iranian news agency, reported on Tuesday that the strait’s width, which they said was previously estimated at 20 to 30 miles, had now increased to between 200 and 300 miles.”
DIPLOMACY
Qalibaf Says US ‘Has No Alternative’ but to Accept Iran’s Terms | Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
“Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, says the United States ‘has no alternative’ but to accept Tehran's latest counterproposal to end the war. ‘There is no alternative but to accept the rights of the Iranian people as laid out in the 14-point proposal,’ Baqer, who is also speaker for the Iranian parliament, wrote on X on May 12. ‘Any other approach will be completely inconclusive; nothing but one failure after another.’”
“India is set to host Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi from Wednesday, ahead of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit later this month. This will be Araghchi’s first visit to India since war broke out in West Asia between the US, Israel and Iran at the end of February. During his visit, Araghchi will lead Iran’s delegation for the foreign ministers’ meeting of BRICS to be hosted on 14 and 15 May.”
Iran’s ‘Garbage’ Peace Offering Is Proof It Thinks It Has Won the War | CNN
“The United States waited 10 days for Iran’s response to its framework for ending the war. When Tehran’s demands arrived Sunday, they signaled that the Islamic Republic remains intent on extracting victory despite President Donald Trump’s push for regime surrender.”
NUCLEAR PROGRAM
“An Iranian lawmaker says that Tehran could enrich uranium to 90 percent purity—a level associated with nuclear weapons capability—if the country comes under attack again.”
HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran Executes Another Prisoner, Says Judiciary | Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
“Iran's judiciary announced the execution of another prisoner, Abdul Jalil Shahbakhsh, on the morning of May 12. Mizan, official news outlet for the judiciary, identified Shahbakhsh as a ‘trained terrorist’ from the Ansar al-Furqan group.”
Islamic Republic Denies Visits to Eight Female Political Prisoners | Iran International
“Eight women political prisoners held in Tehran’s Evin Prison have been barred from meeting family members and lawyers following tighter security measures and pressure linked to collective protest activities inside the ward, according to information obtained by Iran International. Shiva Esmaili, Golrokh Iraee, Sakineh Parvaneh, Forough Taghipour, Zahra Safaei, Marzieh Farsi, Elaheh Fouladi and Varisheh Moradi were denied visitation rights in recent weeks after participating in memorial gatherings and protest-related events inside the women’s ward, sources familiar with the situation said.”
SHIPPING, SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
US Issues New Sanctions over Iran’s Oil Shipments to China | Reuters
“The U.S. government on Monday announced sanctions against three people and nine companies, including four based in Hong Kong and four in the United Arab Emirates, for aiding Iran’s shipment of oil to China.”
UK Sanctions 9 People for Alleged Iran-Linked ‘Hostile Activity’ | Associated Press
“The British government sanctioned nine people and three organizations on Monday that it accused of engaging in ‘hostile activity’ on behalf of Iran that threatens U.K. and global security. The Foreign Office said it froze assets and banned travel to counter the Islamic Republic’s use of gangs to carry out threats overseas and use illicit financing that helps it to wage war and block the Strait of Hormuz. . . . The Zindashti Network was sanctioned for allegedly being involved with an armed group backed by Iran that threatened, planned or attacked people in the U.K. The U.S. government sanctioned the network two years ago, saying it was run by a narcotics trafficker who operated on the orders of Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security to assassinate and kidnap critics of Iran. The sanctions also targeted five members of the Zarringhalam family accused of using funds to try to destabilize the U.K. and Middle East.”
The Shadowy Network of Chinese Oil Refineries Funding Iran | CNN
“A few hundred miles from where Chinese leader Xi Jinping will roll out the red carpet for President Donald Trump this week, a shadowy ecosystem has long been at work pumping billions of dollars into Iran’s economy—now helping keep Tehran afloat in defiance of the US. These are the ports, pipelines, and oil refineries of Shandong province and its borderlands, where the hulking architecture of oil storage tanks and spindly profiles of smokestacks jut up from barren, coastal flatlands. Here, so-called ‘teapot refineries’—small, independent oil companies that operate with the permission of Beijing—quietly process US-sanctioned Iranian crude into gas, diesel and petrochemicals for the world’s second largest economy. Now, as Washington looks to cut Tehran’s financial lifelines and force it to capitulate to end a months-long war, these activities are being yanked out of the margins and onto the negotiating table between Trump and Xi.”
Oil Tanker That Exited Hormuz Comes to a Halt in Gulf of Oman | Bloomberg
“An oil supertanker that exited the Persian Gulf on Sunday hauling a cargo of Iraqi crude has come to a halt as it was about to exit the Gulf of Oman for the Arabian Sea.”
As Iran’s Economy Sinks, Hardliners Turn to Conspiracy | Iran International
“As prices continue to soar across Iran, hardline clerics and pro-government figures are increasingly attempting to shift blame away from the state even as economic pressure deepens for ordinary citizens. In Mashhad, firebrand Friday prayer leader Ahmad Alamolhoda claimed that ‘US Army infantry is responsible for rising prices.’ He later said the remark was metaphorical, arguing that the war had triggered hyperinflation and that ‘profiteers and the main culprits behind rising prices are the US army’s infantry.’ Earlier in the week, Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the hardline daily Kayhan, wrote that ‘rising prices and hoarding are the products of the enemy’s infiltration in the government.’”