TOP STORIES
As Iran threatens to respond to the suspected Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the regional militias that the Islamic Republic has armed for decades could play a role in any attack... In April following an Israeli attack on the Iranian Embassy compound in Syria, Iran launched 170 bomb-carrying drones, more than 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles toward Israel. Israel, the U.S. and other nations shot down many of the projectiles, some of which came from Yemen. Iran could launch a similar assault, but this time Hezbollah may get involved as the militia seeks revenge for the Israeli strike last week killing senior commander Fouad Shukur. Such an assault could strain Israeli air defenses, meaning more missile strikes raising the risk of casualties — and of a further escalation experts fear could lead to a wider regional war.
US Passes Message To Iran Not To Escalate At 'Critical Moment' For Middle East | Reuters
The United States has been urging other countries through diplomatic channels to tell Iran that escalation in the Middle East is not in their interest, a State Department spokesperson said on Monday, at what Secretary of State Antony Blinken called a "critical moment" for the region. Blinken said Washington was "engaged in intense diplomacy, pretty much around the clock" to help calm tensions amid fears Iran is preparing a retaliatory strike against Israel. "All parties must refrain from escalation," Blinken said during a signing ceremony with his Australian counterpart in Washington. "All parties must take steps to ease tensions. Escalation is not in anyone's interests. It will only lead to more conflict, more violence, more insecurity."
Houthi Drone Expert Among Those Killed In U.S. Strike In Iraq | The Washington Post
A Yemeni drone specialist who had traveled to Iraq to train other Iranian-backed fighters was among those killed in a U.S. airstrike near Baghdad last week, American and Iraqi defense officials said, illustrating the extensive cooperation among militant groups supported by Tehran. The July 30 airstrike in Musayib, a town south of Iraq’s capital, targeted militants preparing to launch an attack on U.S. forces, officials have said. The strike killed Hussein Abdullah Mastoor al-Shabal, a Houthi commander, though the Pentagon was unaware of who he was until after an assessment of the operation’s results, said the U.S. official, who like others in this story spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the airstrike.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Iran’s outgoing intelligence minster, Esmail Khatib, must be eating his words. In late July, he boasted that “dismantling Mossad’s infiltration network” in Iran was the greatest achievement of his three-year tenure. Six days later in the heart of Tehran, Israel assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was under the protection of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). What makes the assassination especially noteworthy is that the Iranian regime regards the IRGC’s own intelligence and counterintelligence capabilities as far more sophisticated than those of Khatib’s ministry. In fact, within the IRGC’s internal structures, the security-intelligence axis embedded within the all-powerful IRGC Intelligence Organization is the most powerful and influential force not only within the IRGC, but also more broadly in Iran—the crème de la crème of the regime’s security apparatus.
Israel is gearing up to finally defeat arch enemy Iran which is expected to unleash an attack in mere hours, a Middle East expert has said. Tel Aviv is preparing to "cut the head off the snake" of Tehran and its sprawling proxy network as they plan an imminent coordinated strike that could spark all-out war...Kasra Arabi, Director of IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), also told The Sun he fears an imminent attack from Iran and its proxy network. He said: "I think we're very, very close to full scale confrontation or direct confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. "We have [already] been seeing this regional war that everyone's talking about. We're in the regional war. "We have been in the regional war since October 7."
Jeb Bush Takes Helm Of Group Countering Iran | The Editors
The former governor of Florida, Jeb Bush, is taking over as the chairman of United Against Nuclear Iran, an education and advocacy group that had been led by Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, who died in March. In Bush’s first day on the job, he issued a public message in Farsi, promising the people of Iran, “we will expand all our activities more firmly and with more motivation, with the aim of fighting against Khamenei, the terrorist Revolutionary Guard Corps, and supporting your vision for a free Iran. We are with you and do not doubt that victory is near.” In English, Bush offered a similar message of solidarity with the Iranian people against the regime. “The Islamic Republic is a threat not only to the United States but also to the brave Iranian people,” Bush said in a statement. “They deserve better than repressive rulers and U.S. leadership that has been adrift. Getting U.S. Iran policy right requires a bipartisan approach—bridging divides between Democrats and Republicans.”
Daily Kickoff | Jewish Insider
In today’s Daily Kickoff, we preview the top primaries to watch today in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington, look at how Iran and U.S. allies in the region are separately preparing for a potential strike against Israel and report on Nevada Senate candidate Sam Brown’s effort to outflank Sen. Jacky Rosen on Israel. Also in today’s Daily Kickoff: Penny Pritzker, Alan Garber and Jeb Bush. […] Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was named the chairman of United Against Nuclear Iran, succeeding former Sen. Joe Lieberman, who died in March…
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Israel Slaps First-Ever Shipping Sanctions On Iran’s Dark Tankers As Tensions Soar | TradeWinds
Israel opened a new front against Tehran on Tuesday with the country’s first-ever shipping sanctions by ordering the seizure of 18 tankers allegedly involved in selling Iranian oil to finance militant operations. The measures are aimed at vessels involved in “dark” ship-to-ship oil transfers with a US-sanctioned tanker off the coast of Syria, according to Israeli officials. The operation, reportedly overseen by senior Hezbollah official Muhammad Qasir, involved the export of Iranian crude for refining in Syria.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Biden Briefed That Iran Attack Timing And Details Still Unclear, U.S. Officials Say | Axios
President Biden and Vice President Harris were told by their national security team on Monday that it is still unclear when Iran and Hezbollah are likely to launch an attack against Israel and what specifically the attack might entail, three U.S. officials told Axios. Why it matters: Biden administration officials say they are working to prepare for countering the possible attacks and mobilizing diplomatic pressure on Iran and Hezbollah to try to minimize their retaliation for the assassinations by Israel of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah's top military commander in Beirut. Driving the news: Secretary of State Antony Blinken told his G7 counterpart on Sunday that Iran and Hezbollah could attack Israel as soon as the next 24-48 hours, Axios reported.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah said it launched a drone attack early Monday on northern Israel that the Israeli military said wounded two Israeli troops. The violence came amid fears of an all-out regional war following the killings last week of a senior Hezbollah commander in Lebanon and Hamas’ top political leader in Iran. The Iranian-backed Hezbollah said it targeted a military base in northern Israel in response to “attacks and assassinations” by Israel in several villages in southern Lebanon. The attack did not appear to be the more intense retaliation that’s expected from Iran and its allied militias. Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged near-daily strikes for the past 10 months during the war in Gaza. But last week’s assassinations of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran’s capital and Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukur in Beirut sent regional tensions soaring.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Russia’s Shoigu In Iran To Signal Support, Urge Restraint Against Israel | Al-Monitor
A top Russian security official and close ally of President Vladimir Putin arrived in Tehran on Monday for talks with the Iranian president and other top officials, as the world awaits with bated breath Iran’s response to the killing of Palestinian Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital last week. Sergei Shoigu, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, met with Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, as well as with the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Al-Akbar Ahmadian, and with the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Maj. Gen. Mohamed Bagheri, Iran's state news agency IRNA reported on Monday. Russia has been among the countries that have supported Iran in difficult times, Pezeshkian told Shoigu, adding that "expansion of ties with this strategic partner is among foreign policy priorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran," IRNA said.
IRAQ & IRAN
US Personnel Wounded In Attack Against Base In Iraq, Officials Say | Reuters
At least five U.S. personnel were injured in an attack against a military base in Iraq on Monday, U.S. officials told Reuters, as the Middle East braced for a possible new wave of attacks by Iran and its allies following last week's killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah. Two Katyusha rockets were fired at al Asad airbase in western Iraq, two Iraqi security sources said. One Iraqi security source said the rockets fell inside the base. It was unclear whether the attack was linked to threats by Iran to retaliate over the killings.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Jordan Asks Airlines To Carry Extra Fuel Amid Iran-Israel Tension | Voice of America
Jordan has asked all airlines landing at its airports to carry 45 minutes of reserve fuel, in what experts see as a precautionary measure in case of an attack by Iran against Israel. Some airlines are already avoiding Iranian and Lebanese airspace and canceling flights to Israel and Lebanon, as concerns grow over a possible conflict in the region after the killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah last week. The NOTAM, a safety notice provided to pilots, was issued Sunday by Jordanian authorities, asking all airlines to carry the reserve fuel for "operational reasons." It is effective until 2200 GMT on Tuesday.