TOP STORIES
US and Iran Inch Towards Short-Term Deal to End Fighting | Reuters
“The United States and Iran are edging toward a limited, temporary agreement to halt their war, sources and officials said on Thursday, with a draft framework that would stop the fighting but leave the most contentious issues unresolved. The emerging plan centres on a short-term memorandum rather than a comprehensive peace deal, underscoring deep divisions between the two sides and signalling that any agreement at this stage would be an interim step. . . . The proposed framework would unfold in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement, according to the sources and officials.”
Iran’s Oil Sector and Economy are Under Pressure as US Blockade Bites | New York Times
“An Iranian oil ministry official said Iran had started production cuts at some of its oil wells to mitigate the storage crisis. The official, who asked not to be named because he was discussing sensitive issues, estimated a timeline of about 40 to 45 days before onshore and offshore storage run out. Iran could be forced to shut down some oil wells, which can be slow and prohibitively expensive to restart. The oil ministry official said the shutdown could be permanent for some older wells, because restarting them would not be cost-effective.”
US Fires on Iranian Oil Tanker as Trump Pressures Tehran for Deal to End War | Associated Press
“The US military fired on an Iranian oil tanker Wednesday as President Donald Trump sought to pressure Tehran into reaching a deal to end the war. . . . A fighter jet shot out the rudder of the tanker in the Gulf of Oman as it tried to breach the American blockade of Iran’s ports, US Central Command said in a social media post.”
UANI IN THE NEWS
War Handed Public Space Back to Iran’s Regime | UANI Senior Advisor Saeid Golkar in Foreign Policy
“Iran has entered a critical moment in its postrevolutionary history. Many analyses since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war have focused on the growing dominance of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This is correct, but it misses another important transformation, which is happening in Iran’s public spaces. Since the beginning of the war, the Islamic Republic has actively mobilized its supporters, including the Basij and networks close to the Guards, into the streets of Tehran and other major cities. . . . Together with Israeli and U.S. messaging that urges civilians to avoid the outdoors, the result is a clear shift in public behavior. As Iranians have withdrawn from the streets, pro-regime groups have moved in and filled the space. This is a reversal of a long-term social trend before the war in which Iranians were reclaiming public space they had lost since the revolution.”
Iran’s Aging Tankers Used for Oil Reserves as Blockade Strains Storage Capacity | Jerusalem Post
“A nearly 30-year-old oil tanker, Nasha, is being used by Iran to store approximately two million barrels of oil off the coast of Kharg Island as the US naval blockade entered its fourth week, according to a report from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI).”
Iranian Oil: Will a Choice Have to Be Made Between China and the United States? | France 24
“‘The teapot refineries help keep the Tehran regime afloat,’ Daniel Roth, director of research at United Against Nuclear Iran, an American lobbying group, told the Wall Street Journal.”
China’s Role in Enabling Iran’s Shahed Drone Supply Lines | Nikkei Asia
[Photo caption] “Poland's Deputy Prime Minister Radoslaw Sikorski speaks beside a Shahed-136 drone during an event organized by United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) in the Houses of Parliament in London on Oct. 14, 2025.”
MILITARY MATTERS
US Fires on Iranian Oil Tanker as Trump Pressures Tehran for Deal to End War | Associated Press
“The U.S. military said Wednesday that it fired on an Iranian oil tanker as President Donald Trump sought to pressure Tehran into reaching a deal to end the war. An American fighter jet shot out the rudder of the tanker in the Gulf of Oman as it tried to breach the U.S. military’s blockade of Iran’s ports, U.S. Central Command said in a social media post.”
Iran Has Hit Far More US Military Assets than Reported, Satellite Images Show | Washington Post
“Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at US military sites across the Middle East since the war began, hitting hangars, barracks, fuel depots, aircraft and key radar, communications and air defense equipment, according to a Washington Post analysis of satellite imagery. In all, the Post found 217 structures and 11 pieces of equipment that were damaged or destroyed at 15 US military sites in the region.”
“France’s aircraft carrier strike group is moving south of the Suez Canal and into the Red Sea in preparation for a potential French-British mission in the Strait of Hormuz, French President Emmanuel Macron said Wednesday.”
DIPLOMACY & STRAIT OF HORMUZ CRISIS
Iran Says It Is Reviewing New US Proposal After Sources Say Sides Closing in on Deal | Reuters
“Iran said on Wednesday it was reviewing a new U.S. proposal, after sources said Washington and Tehran were closing in on a one-page memorandum to end the war in the Gulf while leaving tricky issues such as Iran’s nuclear programme for later. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, cited by Iran’s ISNA news agency, said Tehran would convey its response soon via Pakistan . . .”
Uranium Removal from Iran ‘Impossible’—Iran Military-Linked Outlet | Iran International
“An Iranian news outlet linked to the country’s armed forces denied reports that Tehran had agreed to remove enriched uranium from the country as part of talks with the United States. Defa Press, which is affiliated with the Iranian military, said on Wednesday that removing uranium from Iran had been ‘completely and irreversibly’ ruled out in diplomacy, citing what it described as information from senior Iranian diplomatic officials. The outlet also dismissed reports that Iran and the US had agreed on a 14-point memorandum aimed at ending the conflict between the two countries, describing them as part of a media campaign by ‘enemy security-linked outlets.’”
Trump Tells PBS News That Iran War Has a ‘Very Good Chance of Ending’ | PBS
“President Donald Trump expressed optimism about striking a deal with Iran, which could include Iran exporting its highly enriched uranium to the United States, in a phone call Wednesday morning with PBS News. Trump said he feels the US is closing in on a deal, “but I felt that way before with them, so we’ll see what happens.” . . . The president said it’s possible a deal could be struck to end the war before his trip to China next week. “I think it’s got a very good chance of ending, and if it doesn't end, we have to go back to bombing the hell out of them,” Trump [said] . . .”
China is Stepping Up Its Iran War Diplomacy Ahead of Trump’s Summit with Xi | Associated Press
“China’s diplomatic role in the Iran war has come into sharper focus following talks between Chinese and Iranian foreign ministers on Wednesday, days before US President Donald Trump is expected to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Beijing is not an official mediator in the Iran war, but all parties — including Washington and Tehran—say it has played an important role in efforts to de-escalate the conflict. The Trump administration is pressing China to use its influence with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.”
Macron Wants U.S. and Iran to Open Strait While They Negotiate | New York Times
“Seeking to break a deadlock over the Strait of Hormuz, President Emmanuel Macron of France on Wednesday called for the United States and Iran to reopen the contested waterway even before they agree on a truce to end the two-month war. . . . Mr. Macron hopes to persuade the two sides to remove the status of the strait from broader negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles and support for militia groups in the region, two senior French officials said.”
The Deal With the Iranian Regime | Wall Street Journal Editorial
“From our discussions with senior officials, here’s where U.S. red lines stand in the talks: The U.S. says it needs Iran’s attestation that it doesn’t seek nuclear weapons; the dismantlement of the Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan facilities; a ban on underground nuclear work; and on-demand inspections with penalties for violations. The U.S. seeks a 20-year moratorium on Iranian nuclear enrichment and demands the handover of all enriched nuclear material. Iran would have to reopen Hormuz—gradually, as the U.S. relaxes its blockade, and then fully with the final deal. Most U.S. sanctions relief would be tied to Iran’s performance of the deal, not merely its signing, though some assets could be unfrozen to begin. . . . On Wednesday Iran’s state media criticized the U.S. offer, and a senior U.S. official told us the regime is still likely to resist U.S. red lines. It will be essential for Mr. Trump to hold firm, knowing that Iran has no need for domestic enrichment other than for a bomb, and that he can’t count on a change in regime behavior over time, a mistake Mr. Obama made. He also can’t trust a future President to reimpose strict limits later. Mr. Trump has been unique in his willingness to confront Iran. The task in any deal is to secure full nuclear dismantlement while Mr. Trump is still in office. If Iran won’t do it, the President will have to make good on his threats.”
IRANIAN PROXIES
Proxies Carrying Out Antisemitic Attacks in UK Could Face 14 Years in Prison | Guardian
“Offenders who commit antisemitic attacks backed by foreign powers such as Iran will face 14 years in prison under legislation to be included in the king’s speech next week. Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, will be given the power under the National Security Act to designate proxy groups, such as those thought to be behind the recent attacks on the Jewish community, as a foreign intelligence service. . . . The legislation will introduce proscription-like powers for the home secretary to ban state groups such as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), delivering on a pledge made by Labour three years ago. . . . The law will enable the home secretary to designate Islamist groups such as the Iranian-linked Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia, which has claimed responsibility for at least half a dozen antisemitic attacks against Jewish communities.”
TERRORISM & INTEL
German Leaders Clash With Spy Chiefs over Domestic Threat from Iran | New York Times
“Germany’s national leaders and its state intelligence agencies have privately clashed since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran over how bluntly to warn the public about the rising risk of Iran-sponsored attacks on German soil. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt have publicly acknowledged Iranian threats linked to the war against Iran. But they have played down their severity, casting them as largely hypothetical. Intelligence chiefs, particularly regional officials inside state governments, say that the threats are more concrete and urgent than those leaders let on, according to five senior German officials familiar with the discussions.”
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran Steps Up Political Executions | Financial Times
“Tehran has stepped up hangings of people accused over anti-government unrest earlier this year or of working with foreign forces, deploying a new legal framework in the wave of politically linked executions. At least 28 men have been executed since March 18, at the height of the recent US-Israeli war on Iran, according to official accounts in state media. . . . Amir Raesian, a human rights lawyer, said proceedings had sped up under the new law approved last October, which significantly lowered the threshold for sentencing to death people found guilty on espionage or treason charges. ‘Terms in the [new] law, such as ‘any operational acts’, give judges an almost unlimited scope for interpretation, allowing them to issue death sentences without restriction,’ he told the FT. ‘As a result, verdicts have become much harsher and proceedings much faster, making executions swift and straightforward.’”
Iran’s Wartime Unity Push Collides with Hijab Hardliners | Iran International
“A hardline cleric’s attack on unveiled women, even as Iranian state media showcased them at pro-government rallies to signal broad wartime support, has exposed tensions within the establishment over hijab enforcement. . . . Speaking to supporters, he accused unveiled women of standing against ‘the system and the Quran,’ calling them ‘immoral and immodest.’ He also attacked male relatives of such women, describing their fathers, husbands and brothers as ‘dishonorable.’ Addressing women seen without hijab at the events and elsewhere, [he] warned: ‘Do not think these people will put up with you.’ He escalated his rhetoric further by saying that if the public decided to confront them, “they would do something that would make you no longer dare to leave your homes.”
How to Beat Iran’s Internet Kill Switch | Len Khodorkovsky for Iran International
“Washington and the tech industry have the means to help Iranians: expand the tools that bypass censorship and raise the price Tehran pays for shutting the internet down.”
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
China Asks Banks to Pause New Loans to US-Sanctioned Refiner | Bloomberg
“China’s financial regulator advised the country’s largest banks to temporarily suspend new loans to five refiners recently sanctioned by the US over their ties to Iranian oil, according to people familiar with the matter. . . . The verbal directive, which came before China entered a long holiday weekend on May 1, contrasts with a May 2 notice from China’s Ministry of Commerce, which instructed companies to disregard US sanctions.”
“On March 5, as the U.S. and Israeli militaries hammered Iranian targets and Tehran launched attacks at Tel Aviv and Gulf countries that host American bases, an email blast emanated from a server located in China. ‘We are deeply shocked and outraged by the aggression against Iran, and our hearts are with you,’ read the message from Xiamen Victory Technology. The company offered to sell German-designed engines used to power one-way attack drones. The U.S. has prohibited the sale of those engines, known as the Limbach L550, to Iran and Russia. It has been an important component in Iran’s Shahed-136 exploding drone, a version of which Russia has also been using extensively in Ukraine. . . . The open wartime marketing by a small, obscure Chinese company points to a growing source of frustration for Washington: its struggle to staunch the flow of so-called dual-use goods—items with both civilian and military uses—to adversaries.”
CYBERSECURITY
Iran Sponsored Threat Group Behind False Flag Social Engineering Campaign | CyberSecurity Dive
“A threat group linked to Iranian intelligence has been running a months-long false-flag operation to hack organizations in the U.S. and other countries under the guise of a criminal ransomware group, according to a report released Wednesday by researchers at Rapid7. The state-sponsored threat group, tracked as MuddyWater, operated a social engineering campaign beginning in early 2026 that abused Microsoft Teams to harvest credentials and bypass multifactor authentication. The attacks were made to look as if they were the work of Chaos, a ransomware-as-a-service group that has been active since 2025. Researchers said the false flag creates ambiguity that could affect how security teams investigate an intrusion.”
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iran’s President Says He Recently Met with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei | Reuters
“Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said he met recently with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, state media reported on Thursday, offering a first public account of him meeting Khamenei after the latter suffered severe wounds at the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran. The meeting was marked by a ‘humble and deeply cordial’ atmosphere, Pezeshkian was reported as saying.”