TOP STORIES
Tehran Says 4,000 Iranians Returned From Syria Since Assad's Fall | Barron’s
Tehran said Tuesday it had brought home 4,000 Iranian citizens from Syria following the ouster of its ally Bashar al-Assad as rebels took over Damascus. "Over the past three days, 4,000 Iranian citizens were returned to Iran," Fatemeh Mohajerani, the spokeswoman for Iran's government, said at a press conference in the capital. She added that Iran would keep up its efforts "until the departure of the last Iranian" in Syria. Around 10,000 Iranian citizens had been living in Syria in recent years, according to official figures. Iran's Revolutionary Guards sent "military advisers" to Syria to help Assad during the civil war that broke out in 2011. But Ahmad Naderi, a member of the Islamic parliament presidium, said on Tuesday that "there are no Iranian forces in Syria", citing a briefing by Guards' chief Hossein Salami.
Iran’s Armed Forces ‘At War With Themselves’ Over Fall Of Assad | The Telegraph
A furious blame game is unfolding among Iran’s armed forces over the fall of Bashar al-Assad, The Telegraph has learned. Officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said commanders of the elite military force were blaming each other “in angry terms” for the collapse of Assad’s regime and the loss of Iranian influence in the region. “The atmosphere is like something between almost punching each other, punching the walls, yelling at each other and kicking rubbish bins. They are blaming each other, and no one is taking responsibility,” one official from Tehran told The Telegraph. “No one ever imagined seeing Assad fleeing, as the focus for 10 years had been only on keeping him in power. And it was not because we were in love with him, it was because we wanted to maintain proximity to Israel and Hezbollah.”
Statement by the governments of France, Germany and the United Kingdom: “We, the governments of France, Germany and the United Kingdom, condemn Iran’s latest steps, as reported by the IAEA, to expand its nuclear programme to significantly increase the rate of production of uranium enriched up to 60% at the underground Fordow facility. We are also extremely concerned to learn that Iran has increased the number of centrifuges in use and started preparations to install additional enrichment infrastructure, further increasing Iran’s enrichment capacity.”
UANI IN THE NEWS
Assad Regime's Collapse Is A Devastating Defeat For Iran | NBC News
The swift collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime represents a devastating defeat for Iran, the latest in a string of setbacks that have punctured long held assumptions in the West about Tehran’s military prowess... Those incorrect assumptions about Iran “shaped and indeed constrained regional and U.S. policy on Iran,” said Norman Roule, former senior U.S. intelligence official and senior adviser to United Against Nuclear Iran, a nonprofit that focuses on combating threats posed by Iran.
Syria’s Suddenly Permissive Airspace Prompts Flurry Of Foreign Airstrikes | The War Zone
The United States and Israel are capitalizing on the power vacuum left by the demise of the Assad regime in Syria... “Fault lines are emerging in Iran’s [Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp] IRGC over the handling of Syria,” Kasra Aarabi, Director of IRGC Research at the United Against Nuclear Iran (UNI) think tank, argued on Twitter. “Younger radicals are enraged at the ‘abandonment. This will cause [Iran’s supreme leader Ali Hosseini] Khamenei major problems.”
… Iranian oil keeps flowing ahead of expected return to ‘maximum pressure.’ According to preliminary figures from New York-based advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, Tehran exported almost 1.6m barrels per day in November, about its average pace for the year to date, wrote senior maritime reporter Tomer Raanan. Should Iran maintain that pace in December, it would finish the year at about 10% above the 1.45m bpd it averaged in 2023. Keeping Iran’s oil flowing around the restrictions is the fleet servicing sanctioned trades, which has swelled to about 470 tankers and liquefied petroleum gas carriers, according to UANI’s latest tally.
Iran Says Assad ‘Never Asked’ For Help Against Rebels | i24 News
Fall of Assad reveals massive intelligence failure by Iran, but Tehran's influence in Syria may not be over. “There is a real risk of Iran trying to cultivate relations with HTS or other groups, Sunni variety, in Syria to protect its interests,” UANI Policy Director Jason Brodsky says.
U.S.’ Dueling Stance On Syria Crisis | WION
Joe Biden calls for Assad to be ‘held accountable.’ Trump’s spy pick faces scrutiny for remarks on Assad in 2017. Susan Tehrani joined by Jack Roush, Research Associate, UANI, for perspective.
Hope And Fear After The Fall Of Al-Assad | Kvartal IDAG
Kvartal Idag is the daily news podcast for you who think for yourself. The most important from Sweden and the world, Monday-Thursday every week. The presenters are Magnus Thorén, Jörgen Huitfeldt and Staffan Dopping.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Germany, UK And France Say They Are Extremely Concerned About Iran Enrichment Increase | Reuters
Germany, Britain and France said on Monday they were "extremely concerned" about Iran's acceleration in its capacity for enrichment of uranium, urging Iran to halt and reverse these steps. Rafael Grossi, head of the UN nuclear watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told Reuters on Friday that Iran was accelerating its enrichment of uranium to up to 60% purity, approaching the level of about 90% that is weapons-grade. Enrichment refines the raw material so it can be used as fuel in civil nuclear power generation or, potentially, nuclear weapons. Iran has long denied seeking nuclear weapons.
Iran's Nuclear Leap Is Close To Bomb-Grade: Report | Newsweek
Iran's recent acceleration in its enrichment of uranium is close to bomb-grade, according to Reuters. Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told the outlet that Iran was increasing its enrichment of uranium to 60 percent, getting closer to the 90 percent level needed for weapons grade. Iran's ability to arm itself with nuclear weapons is significant as tensions in the region continue to increase with the war in Gaza. Newsweek reached out to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran for comment via email outside of business hours. Newsweek also reached out to the IAEA for comment via a form on their website.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Syria-Bound Tanker With Iran Crude U-Turns After Assad Downfall | Bloomberg
An oil tanker laden with Iranian crude and heading toward Syria made a U-turn after the regime of Bashar al-Assad was toppled, according to Vortexa Ltd. and ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Suezmax Lotus — a sanctioned Iranian vessel — had been sailing toward Syria’s Baniyas oil refinery as recently as Sunday, Vortexa data show. Just before the tanker was to transit through the Suez Canal, it turned and is now heading south, according to ship-tracking data.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Amputations In Iran Hit Record High, Stoking International Criticism | Iran International
Iran has carried out an unprecedented number of amputations for theft over the past three years, a punishment based on Islamic law that breaks international human rights laws. "If theft is proven under the conditions set by Islam, the thief's fingers must be amputated," said Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, the judiciary chief, during a speech at Tehran’s Islamic Azad University on Saturday. "This is a ruling from God that has been implemented and continues to be implemented, despite the pressure we face from various organizations. The majority of hadd punishments [fixed punishments prescribed under Islamic law] for theft carried out in the past three years have been this ruling."
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
White House Vows Support For Syria As The Assad Regime Ends | Scripps News
The U.S. State Department says it has “taken steps to secure the U.S. embassy” in Syria following the collapse of the Assad government. This comes after the toppling of more than 50 years of a dictatorship there, showing an uncertain way forward for any new government. "The fall of the regime is a fundamental act of justice," President Joe Biden said Sunday, but warned that the significant change will also mark a period of uncertainty for Syria and the region. "As we all turn to the question of what comes next, the United States will work with our partners and the stakeholders in Syria to help them seize an opportunity to manage the risks," President Biden said.
The Pentagon unveiled a new counter-drone strategy after a spate of incursions near U.S. bases prompted concerns over a lack of an action plan for the increasing threat of unmanned aerial vehicles. Though much of the strategy remains classified, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will implement a new counter-drone office within the Pentagon – Joint Counter-Small UAS Office – and a new Warfighter Senior Integration Group, according to a new memo. The Pentagon will also begin work on a second Replicator initiative, but it will be up to the incoming Trump administration to decide whether to fund this plan. The first Replicator initiative worked to field inexpensive, dispensable drones to thwart drone attacks by adversarial groups across the Middle East and elsewhere.
CONGRESS & IRAN
Syria Chaos Could Complicate Lawmakers’ Holiday Endgame | Roll Call
The fall of Bashar Assad’s government in Syria could complicate Congress’ dash toward an end-of-year break and a Dec. 20 government funding deadline. While the House is expected to vote this week on the must-pass defense policy bill, lawmakers are not expected to begin floor votes on an emerging stopgap spending and disaster relief measure until next week, leaving them plenty of time to weigh in on other hot-button issues. The stunning scenes over the weekend of Syrians celebrating rebel forces’ ouster of the Assad government were hailed by President Joe Biden and others as a win for democracy. But it raises a slew of questions about the Israel-Hezbollah war and whether a post-Assad power vacuum could escalate the Middle East conflict. Lawmakers and the Biden administration must decide how involved U.S. forces should be in the fast-moving situation after Biden ordered a round of air strikes inside Syria on Sunday aimed at preventing the Islamic State militant group from filling the power vacuum.
Last Thursday, U.S. Sen. Katie Britt, R-Alabama, signed onto a letter to U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen pushing for immediate implementation of sanctions on Iran “due to its significant role in financing destabilizing regional terrorism and nuclear development.” Britt joined other members of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, including Ranking Member Sen. Tim Scott, R-South Carolina, and six other Senate Republicans in writing the letter to Yellen. Earlier this year, Congress passed a security package including the Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum (SHIP) Act introduced by Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida. The SHIP Act imposed sanctions on foreign ports, vessels and refineries connected to the shipping of sanctioned Iranian petroleum products.
Republicans Pick Mast To Lead House Foreign Affairs Panel | The Hill
House Republicans selected Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.) to chair the House Foreign Affairs Committee and Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) to lead the Energy and Commerce Committee in the 119th Congress, as the conference works to organize its panels for the next two years of Republican-controlled Washington. Republicans also selected Rep. Brian Babin (R-Texas) to lead the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, sources said. The chair picks were made by the House GOP Steering Committee, a panel of roughly 30 lawmakers that includes leadership and elected regional representatives. Their recommendations must be ratified by the whole House, which will likely take place early next year.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Israeli Ground Forces Cross Into Syria, Officials Say | The New York Times
Israeli ground forces advanced beyond the demilitarized zone on the Israel-Syria border over the weekend, marking their first overt entry into Syrian territory since the 1973 October War, according to two Israeli officials speaking anonymously to discuss sensitive developments. The Israeli deployment came amid a successful push by rebel groups in Syria to drive President Bashar al-Assad out of power and out of the country, prompting neighboring states to brace for more regional instability created by his sudden fall and flight. Israeli forces took control of the mountain summit of Mount Hermon on the Syrian side of the border, as well as several other locations deemed essential for stabilizing control of the area.
Israel Denies Its Forces Have Gone Past Syria Buffer Zone | Reuters
Israel denied on Tuesday that its forces had penetrated into Syrian territory beyond the buffer zone with the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, after Syrian sources said the incursion had extended to within 25 km (15 miles) of the capital Damascus. Since Assad's flight on Sunday ended, opens new tab over five decades of his family's rule, Israeli troops moved into a demilitarised zone inside Syria established following a 1973 war. Israel calls the incursion a temporary measure to ensure border security. Three security sources said on Tuesday the Israelis had advanced beyond the demilitarised zone. One Syrian source said they had reached the town of Qatana, several km (miles) to the east of the zone and just a short drive from Damascus airport. But an Israeli military spokesperson said troops had not left the demilitarised zone.
Reports in Syria claim that the Israeli Air Force bombed the Latakia port a short while ago. According to the reports, the strikes targeted Syrian naval assets belonging to the ousted Assad regime. Following the fall of the Assad regime, the IDF has carried out dozens of strikes in Syria, taking out weaponry Israel fears could fall into the hands of hostile forces. The strikes have hit advanced missile storage sites, air defense systems, weapon production facilities, and chemical weapons sites. The strikes have also taken out planes, helicopters and tanks that belonged to the Assad regime army.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Israel Says Iran Struck Back Against Central City With Yemen Drone | Newsweek
The Israeli military reported on Monday that a drone, likely originating from Yemen, struck a central Israeli city. Video shared by Israeli news outlets showed a large plume of smoke rising from a high-rise apartment building following the impact. According to the Israeli Defense Forces, the drone attack that struck the city of Yavne was not preceded by warning sirens, a departure from standard protocol. There were no immediate reports of casualties or injuries from the incident. The attack underscores a growing threat from Iran-backed militant groups in Yemen, which have targeted Israel following Hamas' Oct. 7 assault on southern Israeli communities.
MISCELLANEOUS
Iran’s Very Bad Year | New York Times
Most questions about Syria’s future don’t have clear answers. Will the Islamist rebels who have taken over the country create a harsh Taliban-style government? Or do the rebels’ recent hints of moderation point toward something gentler? The situation remains uncertain. But one implication of President Bashar al-Assad’s downfall seems clear: It caps a remarkably bad year for Iran. The alliance Iran leads — the “axis of resistance” — has unraveled, as my colleague Alissa Rubin writes. One of Iran’s Middle Eastern rivals, Saudi Arabia, is now in a stronger position as a result. So is Israel, which Iran has long sought to destroy. The United States, for its part, just elected a president whom Iran so despises that its agents considered a plot to assassinate him.