TOP STORIES
Russia, Iran, China Seek To Shape US Election, Officials Say | Bloomberg
Russia, China and Iran are all recruiting Americans to spread propaganda advancing their interests ahead of the US presidential election, American intelligence officials said Monday. Some US citizens have been knowingly helping foreign governments “seed, promote and add credibility to narratives that serve the foreign actors’ interests,” the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said Monday in its latest update on election security. Others in the US have been duped into aiding the foreign actors, according to the report. Although intelligence officials, who briefed reporters largely on condition of anonymity Monday, didn’t invoke the names of US presidential candidates, their comments made clear that they believe Russia is trying to help Republican nominee Donald Trump while Iran is seeking to undermine his candidacy. Russian operatives, in particular, have undertaken efforts to build and use networks of US and Western “personalities” to create and disseminate Russian-friendly narratives,” according to the report.
IRGC Seizes Oil Tanker Over Alleged Fuel Smuggling | Asharq Al-Awsat
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps announced it has seized a Togo-flagged oil tanker carrying more than 700,000 liters of fuel in the Gulf, the second such seizure in less than a week. In a statement, the IRGC said the Togo-flagged “Pearl G” tanker with its nine crew members, who have Indian nationality, was seized by the forces of its Navy's third region on Friday morning following a judicial order. “Pearl G, which is owned by an Iraqi national residing in the UAE, was offloading smuggled oil from Iranian vessels,” Tasnim reported, adding the vessel had been moved to the port of Bandar Imam Khomeini. Last week, the IRGC seized another Togo-flagged tanker carrying 1,500 tons of marine gas oil. British security firm Ambrey said last Monday the vessel had loaded marine gas oil off the coast of Iraq and was destined for UAE's Sharjah when it was intercepted on Sunday, 61 nautical miles southwest of Iran's port of Bushehr. The Navy confirmed seizure in a statement quoted by Iran's state news agency, saying: “The tanker was systematically engaged in fuel smuggling ... and was seized in the depths of Bushehr's coast by judicial order.”
French President Emmanuel Macron warned his new Iranian counterpart Massoud Pezeshkian in a phone call on Monday against Iran's continuing support for Russia's war in Ukraine, the Elysee palace said in a statement. Macron also told Iranian President Pezeshkian his nation had a role to play to avoid escalation in Lebanon-Israel tensions by halting support for destabilising players. Iran should also stop the worrying escalation of its nuclear program and comply with international organizations, Macron said. Finally, releasing three French hostages would be a must in order to improve Franco-Iranian relations.
UANI IN THE NEWS
EU Lawmakers Slam Move To Attend Inauguration Of Iranian President | Jewish News Syndacite
[…] In his election campaign last month, Pezeshkian promised to improve Iran’s diplomatic ties and even attempt to revive the 2015 nuclear deal from which former U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew in 2018. But, according to Kasra Aarabi, director for IRGC Research at United Against a Nuclear Iran (UANI), “Iran’s new ‘moderate’ leader is part of the game. The presidency is a rubber stamp and the face of the regime to give a mask of reformism abroad.’’ He added, “Pezeshkian’s presidency will not change the regime’s key policies. They are set by the supreme leader, who wields absolute power.” Aarabi noted that Pezeshkian would not have become president without consent from Khamenei and the IRGC. According to him, they choose Pezeshkian “because Khamenei and the IRGC know that if Trump is elected, U.S. policy will revert to ‘maximum pressure’ against the regime. This almost brought the Islamic Republic to its knees during Trump’s first term. But they also know Europe has a high level of disdain for The Donald. Thus, they believe that the best way to undermine ‘maximum pressure’ is to divide the U.S. and Europe on Iran.’’
Several members of the Europeran Parliament have expresse anger at the fact that the EU will be represented at the swearing in ceremony of Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian on Tuesday in Tehran. […] But, according to Kasra Aarabi, director for IRGC Research at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) ‘’Iran’s new ‘moderate’ leader is part of the game. The presidency is a rubber stamp and the face of the regime to give a mask of reformism abroad.’’‘’Pezeshkian’s presidency will not change the regime’s key policies. They are set by the supreme leader, who wields absolute power,’’ he added. Aarabi noted that Pezeshkian would not have become president without consent from Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. According to him, they choose Pezeshkian ‘’because Khamenei and the IRGC know if Trump is elected, US policy will revert to “maximum pressure” against the regime.
Iran reported raking in nearly $16 billion in profits from its illicit oil trade over the past several months, highlighting the Biden-Harris administration’s perennially lax enforcement of sanctions meant to stymie Tehran’s cash flow. "While global supply routes have been seriously affected by the Houthi attacks, Iran’s oil trade, especially to its number one importer, China, has continued unabated," United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) reported in early February, shortly after an Iranian-orchestrated attack killed three American service members. "For January 2024, Iranian exports to China hit 1 million barrels per day. The revenue from these sales is fundamental not only for the regime’s survival but also as a critical source of funds disbursed to its terror proxies, including the Houthi movement in Yemen."
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Inflation And Sanctions In Focus As New Iranian President Takes Office | The National
Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is set to be sworn in before parliament on Tuesday, must aim to reduce inflation and work on easing the impact of western sanctions to support the economy, analysts have said. Mr Pezeshkian, 69, was elected as Iran’s ninth president after he defeated hardline candidate Saeed Jalili in snap elections earlier this month. The election was called after his predecessor Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash in northern Iran. Iran's economy has suffered under extraneous sanctions reimposed by Washington in 2018 after former US president Donald Trump removed the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal that could have provided relief to Tehran in exchange for limiting its nuclear enrichment programme. The sanctions are yet to be lifted, with current President Joe Biden continuing the policy. The country is also on the FATF blacklist. The inflation rate in Iran increased to 44.5 per cent in 2023, from 8 per cent in 2017, amid the sanctions, as well as the impact of disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Realities And Challenges Facing Pezeshkian’s Economic Vision | Arab News
In most countries, the economy often acts as an independent force, guiding policy decisions and shaping political landscapes. However, in Iran, the economic situation is distinctly different. Here, the economy is not an autonomous force but a dependent factor, shaped and controlled by the ruling political system’s strategies. It is a variable closely tied to the decisions of the supreme leader and his inner circle. During the recent presidential election, before Masoud Pezeshkian’s victory, economic issues were at the forefront of the candidates’ platforms, reflecting the centrality of economic and livelihood concerns among the Iranian population. As such, we should explore President Pezeshkian’s economic plans, including his strategies for addressing the current economic challenges, the obstacles he might encounter, his stance on international sanctions and his foreign policy approach, particularly in relation to the nuclear agreement and diplomatic relations with neighboring countries and the broader international community. The policies implemented by the Iranian regime have significantly contributed to the severe economic crises currently faced by the Iranian people. This is reflected in the country’s ongoing isolation and the repeated imposition of sanctions over the past four decades, most notably the reinstatement of US sanctions in 2018
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iranian Officials Deny Controversial Law Caused Increase In Birth Defects | Iran International
Iranian officials are denying claims that a controversial law, which restricts prenatal screenings and limits access to diagnostic test kits for congenital anomalies, has led to an increase in birth defects. The law, enacted three years ago, has been criticized by experts and human rights groups for violating women's rights to sexual and reproductive health and endangering women's health and lives. In an interview with the Tehran daily, Etemad, Amir Hossein Bankipour, a former MP and head of the joint commission responsible for passing the law, denied any increase in birth defects over the past 33 months. He stated, "The numbers remained the same despite the controversy stirred on social media." Etemad further reported that since the law's enactment, "The Ministry of Health has yet to provide any statistics on birth defects, merely asserting that despite a reduction of 200,000 pregnancy screenings during the law's enforcement, no increase in fetal abnormalities has been observed."
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
US Says Iran Has Accelerated Efforts To Influence American Voters | Iran International
Iran has accelerated its use of covert social media networks to influence voters ahead of the November presidential elections in America, Reuters reported on Monday citing a US intelligence official. Influence by “foreign actors” has been a source of apprehension in recent US elections, especially since 2016, when ‘Russian meddling’ became a major theme, with people on both parties accusing the other of having benefited from it. Director of the US National Intelligence Avril Haines warned in a statement on July 9 that "Iran is becoming increasingly aggressive in their foreign influence efforts, seeking to stoke discord and undermine confidence in our democratic institutions." In yet another warning on Monday, an unnamed US intelligence official told Reuters that US foes targeting November's election with influence operations are expected to adapt to presidential contest developments, seemingly alluding to Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race. The official suggested that US intelligence agencies anticipate foreign actors will redirect their influence operations towards Vice President Kamala Harris. "We expect these actors to adjust to these developments and integrate them into their influence narratives, aiming to undermine democratic institutions."
As U.S.-Iran Conflict Builds Across Mideast, Iraq Is Caught In Middle | The New York Times
When Iraq’s prime minister traveled to Washington in the spring, he hoped to negotiate a much-needed economic development package and discuss shared strategic interests with the United States, one of his country’s most important international allies. But the very day he arrived in mid-April, events unfolding at home served as a stark reminder of the competing influences that the Iraqi prime minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, is caught between: Iran was sending drones and missiles to attack Israel and at least one Iraqi militia backed by Tehran participated in the attack. Both the United States and Iran have long held sway in Iraq. But since the war between the U.S. ally Israel and the Iran-backed Hamas broke out in Gaza almost 10 months ago, they are increasingly at odds. With regards to Iraq, one of the most contentious issues is the continued presence of 2,500 American troops on Iraqi soil. Over the past 20 months, Iran has used its considerable influence to try to persuade the Iraqis to push those forces out, and if it succeeds, it would give Tehran even more say over Iraqi policies.
Iran is seeking to harm Donald Trump’s presidential campaign in covert online influence operations, fearing a return to power by the Republican nominee would inflame relations with Washington, U.S. intelligence officials said Monday. U.S. spy agencies have “observed Tehran working to influence the presidential election, probably because Iranian leaders want to avoid” increased tensions with the U.S., an official with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said during a press briefing. The assessment of Iran’s election preferences marked a shift from a view shared by American intelligence agencies just a few weeks ago, when they said that Tehran was chiefly focused on acting as a “chaos agent” in the election.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iran's New President Masoud Pezeshkian Faces Reform Dilemma | The National
Hardly a day goes by in Iran without its incoming President Masoud Pezeshkian updating the country on progress in forming his new cabinet. His overwhelmingly reformist candidates for ministers have already riled conservatives who were defeated in the presidential poll last month. So far, he has appointed Mohammed Reza Aref, an aide to former reformist president Mohammad Khatami, as his First Vice President while Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s former chief nuclear negotiator, is expected to become Foreign Minister. He is “institutionalising a transparent process, outside the control of power and wealth circles”, said former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who has been asked by the new leader to oversee the selection process. Mr Pezeshkian, 70, a heart surgeon, takes the oath of office on Tuesday. He belongs to Iran’s reformist movement whose beginnings can be traced back to Islamists sidelined after the 1979 revolution. However, the concept has been so stretched, even to encompass figures who have allowed violent suppression of civil disobedience, that observers doubt whether the new leader can – or is willing – to pursue significant change.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Iran's New President Warns Israel Against Attacking Lebanon | AFP
Iran's new President Masoud Pezeshkian on Monday warned Israel against attacking Lebanon as tensions soar over a deadly rocket strike in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights blamed on Tehran-backed Hezbollah. "The Zionist regime (Israel) will make a great mistake with heavy consequences if it attacks Lebanon," Pezeshkian said during a call with French President Emmanuel Macron, according to the Iranian president's website. Pezeshkian assumed official responsibilities on Sunday after official endorsement from supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, and is to be sworn in to parliament on Tuesday. Israel vowed to hit back after the strike on a football field in Majdal Shams, a Druze Arab town in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, killed 12 youths on Saturday. Israel accused Lebanon's Hezbollah movement of being responsible for the strike, which the militant group denies. Hezbollah has traded near-daily cross-border fire with Israel in support of Hamas since the Palestinian militant group's October 7 attack on southern Israel triggered war in the Gaza Strip. Pezeshkian, in his phone call with Macron, accused Israel of violating "all the international frameworks and laws" in its "crimes" against Palestinians.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Berlin Calls On Iran And Others To Prevent Middle East Escalation | Reuters
The German government has called on all parties to the Middle East conflict, in particular Iran, to prevent an escalation after a rocket attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights killed 12 children and teenagers last week, a spokesperson said on Monday. Berlin "assumes with certainty" that the deadly attack on a football field in the Golan Heights was conducted by Lebanon-based Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said during a regular press conference. Recent actions by the Yemen-based Houthi militia, also backed by Iran, had also contributed significantly to instability in the region in recent weeks, he added. The strike over the weekend has raised fears of a wider conflict in the region, where tensions have intensified due to Israel's war in Gaza, which began more than nine months ago. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has talked to several people including her Lebanese counterpart in an effort to "mitigate the situation and prevent it from escalating", the spokesperson said. German citizens in Lebanon, of which there are estimated to be about 1,300, are "urgently advised" to leave the country while still possible, the spokesperson said. "We are very concerned about the situation of the Germans on the ground and are preparing what needs to be prepared," he added.