Rubio Aims To Take On The Axis Of Anger: China, Russia, North Korea And Iran

TOP STORIES 

Rubio Aims To Take On The Axis Of Anger: China, Russia, North Korea And Iran | The New York Times 

Marco Rubio embraces the title of Cold Warrior. His adversary, as he sees it, is not the old Soviet Union, which supported the Communist leaders of Cuba, the island his parents left in 1956. Rather, it is an array of nations working together to undermine American power in the 21st century. They are China, Russia, North Korea and Iran — what some policymakers in Washington now call an axis of anger or grievance or anti-Americanism, a loose arrangement of hostile powers that the Biden administration has identified as a threat. […] Iran also poses a potential nuclear threat, though it does not have a weapons program yet. U.S. officials have assessed that it could enrich uranium to weapons-grade material within days, and create a weapon within a few months. Battered by U.S.-led sanctions and recent Israeli military action in the region, Iran has signaled that it might be willing to negotiate over its nuclear program. Mr. Rubio would have a say on whether to engage in those negotiations and, if so, how to conduct the diplomacy.

Iran Eyes China To Avoid Nuclear Sanctions | DW 

The international community is closely monitoring Iran's nuclear ambitions, with the E3 grouping of the United Kingdom, France and Germany voicing their readiness to trigger the powerful "snapback" mechanism of UN sanctions if Tehran continues its pursuit of nuclear weapons. The snapback is a diplomatic tool that is part of a faltering October 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), under which signatories agreed to lift crippling international sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program in exchange for Tehran dismantling it. The JCPOA allows Iran to pursue a peaceful nuclear program for commercial, medical and industrial purposes in line with international non-proliferation standards. However, the deal has mostly fallen through since Donald Trump pulled the United States out and reimposed sanctions during his first term as president in 2018. 

Iranian VP Accuses Israel Of 'Nuclear Terrorism,' Says Site Was Rigged With Explosives | The Jerusalem Post 

Iranian Vice President Mohammad Javad Zarif told online news program Hozour on Tuesday that Israel had rigged a uranium enrichment site with explosives in an act of "nuclear terrorism." The accusation relates to an April 2021 incident at the Natanz uranium enrichment site, in which a power substation located deep underground was damaged, which further damaged "thousands of centrifuges." The Jerusalem Post learned at the time that the attack was carried out through an explosive device that was smuggled into the facility and remotely detonated, although Iranian government sources said that it was not an "external attack" and that a "traitor" had been identified. In the past, Israel has been accused of targeting the same reactor, most famously during the Stuxnet cyber-attacks, which damaged thousands of reactors by exploiting security flaws in Microsoft Windows. 

UANI IN THE NEWS 

The ‘Jihadi Lioness’ Hailed In Iran — Who Runs A British Charity | The Times 

The head of a British charity has glorified a terrorist chief, promoted extremists who celebrated October 7 and personally accepted an award from the Iranian leader known as the “Butcher of Tehran”. Syeda Umme Farwa runs the British-registered charity Labaik Ya Zahra (LYZ) in London, which says it “helps mankind” by advancing the Muslim faith and women’s rights through workshops, conferences and protests. However, a joint investigation by The Times and the advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) can reveal that she has been hailed as a “jihadi lioness” in Iran and has given platforms to alleged extremists with links to terror organisations at her charity’s events. The government’s anti-extremism tsar and MPs from both main parties with backgrounds in security have called for an urgent investigation into the group’s activities. 

How Trump Should Pressure, Punish And Publicly Threaten Iran | UANI CEO Mark Wallace and Policy Director Jason Brodsky For Haaretz 

The incoming Trump administration will inherit an Iran file that presents many challenges, but also opportunities. As United Against Nuclear Iran, a bipartisan organization dedicated to combating the threats from the Iranian regime, calls for in its new recommended action plan for President-elect Donald Trump's first 100 days in office, the president should reimpose his maximum pressure campaign against Iran, in order to bankrupt it of resources which it uses to fuel instability. At the same time, the policy should be intensified diplomatically and militarily to employ all instruments of national power to weaken the Islamic Republic. The geopolitical situation has changed since Trump last assumed office, in 2017. At that time, the U.S. government was still participating in the Iran nuclear deal, alongside its European allies. 

Shadow Fleet VLCC Seized Over Iranian Trading Heads For Scrapyard | TradeWinds 

A tanker involved in trading sanctioned oil is reported to be heading for breakers’ breaches as trading options dwindle for these veteran vessels. Brokers said the 300,000-dwt Artemis III (built 1996) has been sold for scrap, but no price or destination is yet available. […] UANI identified the two vessels and posted a satellite image of the ships side-by-side. The group said the transfer involved an Iranian cargo after it tracked the Artemis III loading around 2m barrels of crude at Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal in August. It added the Artemis III carried out an STS transfer of one-third of those barrels to an aframax tanker in the same area off Malaysia in October before authorities took action. Malaysia was investigating a case of conducting STS operations and anchoring without permission. 

NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM

Israel Supplied Iran With Centrifuge Platforms Containing Explosives, Top Official Acknowledges | Associated Press 

Israel supplied Iran with centrifuge platforms containing explosives for its nuclear enrichment program, a top Iranian official has acknowledged for the first time, underscoring the sophistication of sabotage programs targeting the Islamic Republic. The comments by Mohammad Javad Zarif, a former foreign minister who serves as vice president for strategic affairs for reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, appear aimed at explaining to the country’s disaffected public the challenges Iran’s government faces under crushing Western sanctions over the program. The comments also acknowledged details previously reported in Israel about a 2021 attack on Iran’s underground Natanz nuclear enrichment facility. The revelation, released this week, shows the danger still facing Iran after Israel struck the country twice during the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip — and threatens to directly target its nuclear sites as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to re-enter the White House next week. 

Rubio Breezes Through Confirmation Hearing, Pledges To Confront Iran's Nuclear Program And Combat The CCP | The Washington Free Beacon 

Secretary of state nominee Marco Rubio sailed through his Senate confirmation hearing, drawing bipartisan praise from his former colleagues as he pledged to confront Iran’s accelerating nuclear program and provide Israel with the support it needs to finish decimating Tehran’s terror proxies. Rubio, who until recently served as a veteran member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, returned to Congress on Wednesday to lay out his vision for America’s diplomatic corps ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration next week. The hearing was a largely collegial affair, with Republicans and Democrats focusing their attention on global policy challenges and bipartisan solutions. "I believe you have the skills and are well qualified to serve as secretary of state," Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.), the committee’s ranking Democrat, said at the top of her remarks.

The Iran Nuclear Dilemma: Trump’s Second-Term Challenge | Al Arabiya News 

Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States on Monday, marking a historic return to the White House. His presidency begins amid significant domestic and international challenges, but one issue stands out as particularly pressing: Iran’s nuclear program. Over the past few years, Iran has significantly advanced its nuclear capabilities and is now considered to be at the threshold of developing nuclear weapons. This precarious situation demands immediate attention, as it not only poses a direct threat to the region but also challenges global nonproliferation efforts. How Trump chooses to approach this critical issue will define a major part of his foreign policy agenda. Will he revive his “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran, or will he attempt to negotiate a deal on his own terms? While much remains uncertain, Trump’s past actions and the current geopolitical landscape offer insights into the likely trajectory of his administration’s Iran policy. 

SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS 

IEA Says New US Sanctions Could Significantly Disrupt Russian Supply | Reuters 

The latest round of U.S. sanctions against Russian oil could significantly disrupt the country's oil supply chains, the International Energy Agency said in a monthly report on Wednesday, potentially tightening the global market. Even so, the outlook from the IEA, which advises industrialised countries, still suggests the market will be in surplus this year as supply growth led by countries outside the OPEC+ producer group exceeds subdued expansion in world demand. New U.S. sanctions on Iran and Russia cover entities that handled more than a third of Russian and Iranian crude exports in 2024, the IEA said, but it held off from factoring in the measures into its supply forecasts for now. 

US Sanctions May Impact Russian, Iranian Oil Supplies: IEA | Barron’s 

A colder winter has pushed global oil demand higher while new US sanctions on Russia and Iran could tighten supplies from those countries, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday. The United States announced widespread sanctions against Russia's energy sector last week, targeting more than 180 ships and two major companies, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas. The move came one month after Washington expanded its sanctions against Iran's "shadow fleet" of ships illicitly selling oil to foreign markets. "While it is too early to fully quantify the potential impact from these new measures, some operators have reportedly already started to pull back from Iranian and Russian oil," the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly oil market report. 

The Impact Of U.S. Sanctions On Iran’s Oil Industry | Iran News Update 

Since October 2024, the Biden administration has imposed stringent sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, resulting in significant disruptions to the regime’s crude oil exports. Notably, shipments to China, which purchases nearly all of Iran’s oil, have decreased by 25%, dropping to 1.3 million barrels per day. Simultaneously, the loading of Iranian oil tankers continues, leaving approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil stranded at sea, primarily near the coasts of Malaysia and Singapore, according to The Economist. For most of his presidency, Joe Biden largely overlooked Iran’s expanding oil trade. However, in October 2024, his administration reversed course by blacklisting 55 oil tankers linked to Iran. This constitutes about a third of the so-called “dark fleet,” which clandestinely transports Iranian crude. Data from Kpler suggests that this move marked a significant escalation in efforts to curb Iran’s oil exports. 

PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS 

Activists Report Sexual Abuse Of Incarcerated Women In Iran | DW 

Iranian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi spent years incarcerated for political reasons. She and other human rights activists say torture and sexual violence against women are widespread in Iran's prisons. 

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS 

Iran President Says There Was Never A Plot To Kill Trump | The Hill

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian vehemently denied any plot to kill President-elect Donald Trump following the Justice Department’s November charges against three individuals involved in a murder-for-hire case targeting the Republican. “We have never attempted this to begin with and we never will,” Pezeshkian said in an interview with NBC News on Tuesday evening. The leader speculated Israel or another country promoted the theory to spur “Iranophobia.” The public coverage of Iran’s alleged opposition to the new commander-in-chief has soured an already contentious relationship. Pezeshkian said he’s open to dialogue with Trump during his second administration but noted the United States hasn’t followed through on past commitments. “The problem we have is not in dialogue,” Pezeshkian told Lester Holt. 

Iranian President Warns Trump Against Risking 'War' | The Express Tribune 

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran was not seeking "nuclear weaponry" and warned US President-elect Donald Trump against risking "war" with the Islamic republic, according to a US televised interview broadcast Tuesday. "I do hope that Trump will conduce to peace in the region and the world not, conversely, contribute to bloodshed or war," Pezeshkian said in an interview with NBC News, less than a week before Trump returns to the White House. Washington has not maintained formal diplomatic relations with Tehran for nearly 45 years, and Trump threatened during his recent presidential campaign that US ally Israel could strike Iranian nuclear facilities. "We will react to any action. We do not fear war, but we do not seek it," Pezeshkian said about the prospect of US-endorsed Israeli military strikes on Iran's nuclear sites. 

IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS 

Iran’s Supreme Leader Hails Palestinian ‘Resistance’ After Truce | Al Arabiya News 

Iran supreme leader Ali Khamenei on Thursday hailed Palestinian “resistance” after a Gaza ceasefire deal between Israel and Tehran-backed Hamas was announced. “Today, the world realized that the patience of the people of Gaza and the steadfastness of the Palestinian resistance forced the Zionist regime to retreat,” a post on his account on X said, adding that Israel was “defeated.” 

Iran’s IRGC Hails Gaza Ceasefire As ‘Victory’ For Palestinians | Al Arabiya News 

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Thursday hailed a ceasefire deal in Gaza between Israel and the Hamas militant group as a “victory” for Palestinians and a “defeat” for Israel. “The end of the war and the imposition of a ceasefire... is a clear victory and a great victory for Palestine and a bigger defeat for the monstrous Zionist regime,” the IRGC said in a statement. Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also welcomed the deal which “made the Zionist regime fail in achieving its strategic goal.” He called for “action to punish the criminal regime and heal the wounds of the Palestinian nation.” On Wednesday Qatar and the United States announced a ceasefire and hostage-release deal between Israel and Hamas. 

OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS 

A Ceasefire Deal Is Here. For Gaza, The Middle East And The World, The Future Remains Unknown | The Guardian 

There may be no winners in war, but history suggests combatants are often eager to convince the world otherwise. The ending of the 15-month conflict in Gaza may prove an exception. The sacrifice has been so great, the misery so complete, and the ultimate future for Gaza so uncertain that few can claim with certainty that this was all worthwhile, or likely to benefit Israel’s security in the long term. The damage to Israel’s reputation may last decades. […] Indeed, the weakening of Iran is probably the biggest regional impact of the war in Gaza. Biden had a point this week in claiming that, all told, Iran “is weaker than it has been for decades”. He elaborated: “Iran’s air defences are in shambles. Their main proxy, Hezbollah, is badly wounded, and as we tested Iran’s willingness to revive the nuclear deal, we kept the pressure with sanctions. Now Iran’s economy is in desperate straits.” 

MISCELLANEOUS 

Musk Said To Have Intervened To Help Free Italian Jailed In Iran | The New York Times 

When an Italian journalist was arrested in Iran in December, her boyfriend back home feared she might linger in prison for years. So, amid talk that Iran and Italy were negotiating a prisoner swap that involved the United States, he says, he decided to try to get a message to someone who might be in a position to help. His name was Elon Musk. Not only was Mr. Musk close to President-elect Donald J. Trump, a month before the journalist was detained, the tech billionaire had a secret meeting with the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations. Last week, the journalist, Cecilia Sala, 29, was released from prison in Iran, and days later an Iranian engineer whom Italy had detained on an American extradition request was also freed.