TOP STORIES
Netanyahu Says Israel And US Are Determined To Thwart Iran | Reuters
Israel and the United States are determined to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions and its influence in the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday after meeting U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Speaking after meeting Rubio in Jerusalem, Netanyahu said they discussed a number of issues, "none more important than Iran". "Israel and America stand shoulder to shoulder in countering the threat of Iran," he said. "We agreed that the ayatollahs must not have nuclear weapons and also agreed that Iran's aggression in the region must be rolled back." Rubio said: "Behind every terrorist group, behind every act of violence, behind every destabilising activity, behind everything that threatens peace and stability for the millions of people that call this region home is Iran."
IAEA Chief Sees Time Running Out To Revive Iran Nuclear Deal | Reuters
Time is running out to get an accord to rein in Iran's nuclear programme as Tehran continues to accelerate its enrichment of uranium to near weapons grade, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said on Friday. Speaking to Reuters, Grossi said he had still not been able to have political consultations with the new U.S. administration on the Iran issue, but that he would likely delay issuing a comprehensive report beyond on its nuclear activities beyond March because it would add little value to what had already been reported. "I think we are running out of time, but it doesn't mean that we can't do it fast. The IAEA is there and has all the information and elements, but when it comes to the policy it's up to the countries," Grossi said in an interview on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.
Iran Bars Lebanese Planes From Taking Stranded Citizens Home After Israeli 'Threat' | Reuters
Iran barred Lebanese planes from repatriating dozens of Lebanese nationals stranded in Iran on Friday, in a standoff after Lebanon blocked an Iranian civilian flight following what Tehran described as an Israeli threat to attack it. Lebanon halted an Iranian flight to Beirut this week after the Israeli military accused Tehran of using civilian aircraft to smuggle cash to Beirut to arm Hezbollah. Iran said it would not allow Lebanese flights to land until its own flights were cleared to land in Beirut. The standoff has left dozens of Lebanese citizens stranded in Iran for three days after attending a religious pilgrimage. They had been due to return to Beirut on Iran's Mahan Air before Lebanon barred the plane from landing.
UANI IN THE NEWS
[…] “After Khamenei’s remarks where he cast doubt on negotiations with the U.S., the American government is sending a message to Iran’s regime tonight with two articles in major newspapers disclosing how Israel is readying for a strike on [Iran’s] nuclear program in 2025,” said Jason Brodsky, policy director for the nonprofit organization, United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). U.S. intelligence believes a potential Israeli pre-emptive strike would target Iran’s main nuclear sites in Fordow and Natanz. Israel reportedly seeks to take advantage of Iran’s current weakness and its damaged aerial defense systems, which were largely destroyed in a large Israeli aerial strike on Iran in late October of last year.
Belarus and Iran have developed a growing strategic partnership since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. What began as a pragmatic association rooted in mutual economic and political isolation from the United States and its European allies has evolved into a more intimate relationship based on shared security concerns as well as rhetorical and material support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Recent developments in joint defense production stand to enhance this bilateral relationship, while demonstrating how Russia integrates like-minded states into non-Western structures of partnership and allegiance. […] Jack Roush is a doctoral candidate affiliated with the Iranian History Initiative at the London School of Economics, and a research associate at United Against Nuclear Iran. Find him on X @RoushJackW.
US Targets Iranian Oil Transshipment To Further Disrupt Cargo Flows To China | S&P Global
The US has started to target tankers responsible for transshipments of Iranian oil with sanctions, which could further disrupt Iran's cargo logistics at a time when its top customers in China take a cautious stance on sanctioned trades, according to industry data and observers. With President Donald Trump promising "maximum pressure" on Iran's oil exports as his second term started, the US Treasury Feb. 6 identified nine crude tankers totaling 2.2 million dwt in the new administration first sanctions enforcement against Iran, targeting companies facilitating the country's oil shipments to China and their assets… The recent enforcement "underscores the role that transshipment hubs play in Iran's illicit oil trade" and "reflects an important shift in enforcement strategy," whereby ships loaded Iranian oil from non-Iranian locations were targeted, said Claire Jungman, chief of staff at nonprofit United Against Nuclear Iran.
Rubio: Iran Greatest Force Of Instability In The Region | i24 News
Marco Rubio calls Iran the greatest source of instability in the Middle East. 'We're not going to just talk, we're going to do something about it – maximum pressure is part of it, but Israel must be defended,' UANI Advisor Norman Roule tells Nicole Zedeck of i24 News.
Saudis Said Open To Mediating Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks | i24 News
“‘We're in for a confrontation, not a deal' with Iran if US continues demanding Tehran completely abandon its entire nuclear program,” UANI Policy Director Jason Brodsky tells Bianca Zanini of i24 News.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Saudi Arabia Seeks To Mediate Between Trump And Iran On New Nuclear Deal | CNN
Saudi Arabia is open to mediating between the Trump administration and Iran in pursuit of a new deal to limit Tehran’s nuclear program, CNN has learned. The kingdom is concerned that Iran may be more inclined to pursue a nuclear weapon now that its regional proxies – long viewed as a deterrent against Israeli attacks – have been significantly weakened. Saudi Arabia hopes to leverage its close ties with President Donald Trump to provide Iran with a diplomatic bridge to the White House. It is unclear whether Saudi Arabia has made a formal offer, but the move underscores Riyadh’s desire to build on its improved relations with its former foe and secure a seat at the negotiating table for a potential new deal.
Iran on Monday vowed to defend its nuclear program and condemned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statement that Jerusalem “can and will finish the job” against Tehran’s “axis of terror,” saying that Israel and the US “cannot do a damn thing.” Netanyahu made the comment at a joint press conference in Jerusalem on Sunday with visiting US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said Iran was “behind every terrorist group” in the region and that a nuclear Iran could “never happen.” Responding to Netanyahu, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said that “threatening others is both a gross violation of international law and the United Nations charter.”
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
China’s Private Berths Emerge As Hotspots For Russia, Iran Oil | Bloomberg
Privately-run terminals in China have taken deliveries from US-sanctioned oil tankers, suggesting that a region that is home to the country’s largest buyers of Iranian and Russian crude is finding ways to circumvent the reluctance of larger port operators. Dongying, in the eastern Shandong province, became a key receiving port after state-run Shandong Port Group sold at least one terminal to a private entity, according to traders familiar with the matter. They asked not to be named as the information is not public. The Si He, a tanker sanctioned on Jan. 10, discharged more than 744,000 barrels of Russian ESPO crude at Dongying last week, according to the traders and commodities-tracking platform Kpler.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran Officials Probe Killing Of Student Which Sparked Protests | Reuters
Iranian authorities have ordered an investigation into the fatal stabbing of a university student during a robbery, state media reported on Saturday, as the incident sparked protests at Tehran University. Facing public anger over high inflation and a tumbling currency, and fearing renewed U.S. "maximum pressure", opens new tab under Donald Trump, Iranian authorities are wary of a repeat of protests sparked in 2022 by the death in police custody of a young woman that snowballed into the boldest challenge to the country's clerical leadership since the 1979 revolution. Nineteen-year-old business student Amir Mohammad Khaleqi was stabbed to death by robbers on a motorcycle who stole his backpack late on Wednesday near a dormitory, according to media reports.
Tear Gas Fired At Hezbollah Supporters Protesting Lebanon Blocking Iranian Flight | Reuters
The Lebanese army fired tear gas on Saturday at Hezbollah supporters protesting around Beirut airport against Lebanon blocking an Iranian flight to Beirut this week after the Israeli military accused Tehran of using civilian aircraft to smuggle cash to Beirut to arm the Lebanese group. Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah called on the army to hold those who fired at the protesters to account. The Lebanese army and government "should have held immediate meetings to prevent the Israeli enemy from imposing its dictates on the airport and from continuing its occupation of Lebanese territory ... instead of using force against a peaceful sit-in on the airport road," Fadlallah added in a statement.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
US Aims To Cut Iranian Oil Flows By More Than 90%, Bessent Says | Bloomberg
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US aims to squeeze Iran’s oil exports to less than 10% of current levels as President Donald Trump renews a campaign of “maximum pressure” on Tehran’s nuclear program. “We are committed to bringing the Iranians to going back to the 100,000 barrels-a-day of oil exports” shipped during Trump’s first term, Bessent said in a Friday interview with Fox Business. The country is exporting 1.5 million-1.6 million barrels per day now, he said. Bessent also said he would escalate sanctions on Russian energy if asked to do so by the president. Oil futures jumped after his remarks, with Brent crude trading as much as 1.1% higher at $75.85 a barrel. Last week, Trump signed a directive intended to ramp up economic pressure on Iran, renewing the tough stance taken during his first term, in an effort to prevent the Islamic Republic from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
President Trump Urged To Confront Iranian Regime Over Repression Of Christians | Fox News
Iran is reported to have launched a new crackdown against Iranian Christians this month following the re-arrest of two men. According to a Feb. 10 report on the website of the U.K.-based NGO Article18, which seeks to protect religious freedom in Iran, "Two Christians in their 60s who were released after a combined six years in prison on charges related to their leadership of house-churches have been re-arrested." Iranian regime intelligence agents re-arrested the two Christians, Nasser Navard Gol-Tapeh and Joseph Shahbazian, and incarcerated both men in Tehran’s brutal Evin Prison. Gol-Tapeh is reportedly on a hunger strike over "unlawful re-arrest," noted Article 18, which advocates on behalf of persecuted Iranian Christians.
Threats Will Not Push Iran To Negotiating Table, Top Diplomat Says | Iran International
Washington's so-called maximum pressure campaign of sanctions and mooting of military force will not force Iran to negotiate about its nuclear program, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Monday. "Iran’s position is clear and explicit: We will not negotiate under pressure and threats," Araghchi told reporters in Tehran after a meeting with his Sudanese counterpart. "The presidential order for maximum pressure speaks for itself." The remarks appear to represent a hardening line by Tehran to the suggestion by US President Donald Trump that Iran come to a deal with Washington about its disputed nuclear program or potentially face military strikes. "Maximum pressure and resolutions have never been effective against Iran … We will not negotiate under threat," Araghchi added.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
‘All Options On The Table’ Against Iran, Says Waltz | JNS
“All options are on the table” to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, U.S. National Security Advisor Michael Waltz said on Sunday. U.S. President Donald Trump is “deadly serious when he says Iran can never have a nuke, and certainly not on President Trump’s watch,” Waltz told Fox News Sunday when asked about a potential U.S. military action against Tehran’s nuclear project. He declined to provide details on what actions the United States would take, but stated that the Islamic Republic is “an irrational actor that we cannot allow to have [its] finger on the button.” Washington can talk to the Iranians, if “they want to give up their entire program and not play games as we’ve seen Iran do in the past in prior negotiations,” Waltz continued.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iran Mulls Moving Capital To 'lost Paradise' On Southern Coast | France 24
Though the idea of moving the capital has cropped up on various occasions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the proposals were repeatedly shelved as unrealistic due to the massive financial and logistical hurdles. But reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, who took office in July, has recently revived the idea, citing Tehran's growing challenges. These include traffic snarls, water shortages, resource mismanagement, extreme air pollution, as well as subsidence -- the gradual sinking of land mass due to either natural processes or human activity. In January, government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said the authorities were studying the possible relocation. "The Makran region is being seriously considered," she said, without specifying a timeline.
CONGRESS & IRAN
On First Mideast Tour, Rubio Warns Iran, Praises Trump’s Gaza Plan | The Washington Post
Marco Rubio kicked off his first Middle East tour as secretary of state Sunday with strong support for Israel and stern warnings to Iran as the region bristles from President Donald Trump’s proposal to “own” Gaza and evict its Palestinian population. Rubio, who has been a vocal supporter of Israel in its war in Gaza, was warmly welcomed in Jerusalem by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other officials. Iran, Rubio said, is “the single greatest source of instability in the region, behind every terrorist group, behind every act of violence.” The Trump administration’s top diplomat said Tehran is the “common theme” of regional instability and “must be addressed.” Rubio and Netanyahu spoke to reporters after closed-door meetings. They discussed several subjects in those meetings, Netanyahu said, but “none more important than Iran.”
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Iran's Abandoned Bases In Syria: Years Of Military Expansion Lie In Ruins | BBC
Mouldy half-finished food on bunk beds, discarded military uniforms and abandoned weapons - these are the remnants of an abrupt retreat from this base that once belonged to Iran and its affiliated groups in Syria. The scene tells a story of panic. The forces stationed here fled with little warning, leaving behind a decade-long presence that unravelled in mere weeks. Iran was Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's most critical ally for more than 10 years. It deployed military advisers, mobilised foreign militias, and invested heavily in Syria's war. Its elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) built deep networks of underground bases, supplying arms and training to thousands of fighters. For Iran, this was also part of its "security belt" against Israel.
Iran’s foreign ministry accuses Israel of disrupting flights between Tehran and the Lebanese capital, Beirut, after Lebanese aviation authorities refused to permit an Iranian passenger flight to land on Thursday. The refusal came after Israel said Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had been smuggling cash to Hezbollah on civilian flights. “The threat by the Zionist Regime to a passenger plane carrying Lebanese citizens has disrupted normal flights to Beirut Airport,” foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei says in a statement. Lebanese media reported that dozens of Lebanese nationals were stranded in Tehran after the Maher Air airline was informed that its flight to Beirut would not be able to land.
Iran Confirms Receiving ‘Messages’ From New Syrian Government | Al Arabiya News
Iran said Saturday that it had received messages from the new government in Damascus following the ouster of its longtime Syrian ally, former president Bashar al-Assad. “The Islamic Republic of Iran is indirectly in contact with Damascus,” Tehran’s special envoy for Syrian affairs Mohammad Reza Raouf Sheibani was quoted as saying by the state-run IRNA news agency. The diplomat said Iran had “also received messages” from Syria, but did not specify the intermediary country facilitating the communication. Sheibani was responding to a question about recent comments by Syria’s foreign minister, Asaad al-Shaibani, regarding communications with Iran, according to IRNA. “Our view of the developments in Syria and the restoration of relations with Damascus is forward-looking,” Sheibani said, emphasizing that Iran was “thoughtfully” monitoring the situation there.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Family Of British Couple Detained In Iran Seek Their Return | The Washington Post
The family of a British couple held in Iran while traveling the world on motorcycles are seeking their safe return, describing their detention as a “distressing situation.” The couple, identified as Lindsay and Craig Foreman, are detained in southeastern Iran, according to a family statement shared by the British Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. “This unexpected turn of events has caused significant concern for our entire family, and we are deeply focused on ensuring their safety and well-being during this trying time,” the family said in the statement Saturday, adding that they are working with the British government and “relevant authorities” on the matter.
South Africa Open To Nuclear Project Bids From Russia Or Iran, Minister Says | Reuters
South Africa could turn to Russia or Iran to expand its civilian nuclear power capacity, a senior government minister said, a stance analysts say could deepen a rift with the United States and further delay the renewal of a strategic energy pact. South Africa, which operates Africa's only nuclear power plant, Koeberg, plans to add 2,500 megawatts of new capacity to tackle electricity outages that have plagued the economy and to reduce emissions. "We can't have a contract that says Iran or Russia must not bid, we can't have that condition," Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe, one of the government's leading proponents of expanding nuclear capacity, said.
CYBERWARFARE
[…] During the 2024 U.S. election, Microsoft joined Google, OpenAI and other high-tech firms in collaborating with U.S. authorities to counter foreign influence operations. "Everyone's meddling," the Microsoft Security CTO says about interference in the U.S. political discourse. But this time it wasn't just the Russians and Chinese: Iran emerged as a key online disrupter in last year's elections. Asked when disinformation first appeared on her security teams' radar. Braverman-Blumenstyk notes that "these things don't happen overnight. The Microsoft Threat Intelligence Center has been tracking [fake news and fake social media accounts] and monitoring them for years. In 2020, the U.S. government began talking about Iran in this context." Then, too, it was during the presidential elections.