TOP STORIES
Israel Likely To Strike Iran In Coming Months, Warns U.S. Intelligence | The Washington Post
Israel is likely to attempt a strike on Iran’s nuclear program in the coming months in a preemptive attack that would set back Tehran’s program by weeks or perhaps months but escalate tensions across the Middle East and renew the prospect of a wider regional conflagration, according to U.S. intelligence. The warnings about a potential Israeli strike are included in multiple intelligence reports spanning the end of the Biden administration and the beginning of the Trump administration, none more comprehensive than an early January report produced by the intelligence directorate of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Defense Intelligence Agency.
Iran Says It Can Build New Nuclear Facilities If Enemies Strike | Reuters
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Thursday that Tehran's enemies may be able to strike the country's nuclear centres but they cannot deprive it of its ability to build new ones. He made his comments after the Washington Post reported that U.S. intelligence believes Israel is likely to launch a pre-emptive attack on Iran's nuclear programme by the middle of the year. "They threaten us that they will hit nuclear facilities... If you (the enemy) strike a hundred of those we will build a thousand other ones... You can hit the buildings and the places but you cannot hit those who build it," Pezeshkian said, according to state media. U.S. President Donald Trump raised on Monday the possibility of Israel hitting Iran in an interview with Fox News saying he would prefer to make a deal with Iran to prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Iran President Says US 'Blocking' Iranians' Access To Essentials | Barron’s
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Thursday that US sanctions were depriving his people of basic necessities, vowing his government would find a way to overcome the country's challenges. "Why are you blocking the people's access to food, water, and medicine?" Pezeshkian said of the sanctions during a visit to the southern Bushehr province. "They cannot block our path, we will find a way," he added in remarks broadcast on state TV. US President Donald Trump, who returned to the White House on January 20, has reinstated his "maximum pressure" policy towards Iran over concerns the country is seeking to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran has consistently denied it is seeking an atomic bomb. His administration announced new sanctions earlier this month targeting a network accused of shipping Iranian oil to China after Trump ordered the government to adopt a campaign "to drive Iran's export of oil to zero" and to "modify or rescind sanctions waivers".
UANI IN THE NEWS
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently criticized UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres for questioning Iran’s nuclear intentions. Guterres urged Iran to clarify its position on nuclear weapons and engage constructively with its neighbors. Araghchi reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and cited a religious decree, known as a fatwa, by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which bans weapons of mass destruction as evidence of Iran’s peaceful nuclear program. However, growing voices within Iran, including some the IRGC commanders, have urged Khamenei to revise his fatwa to permit the pursuit of nuclear weapons.[1] Initially issued in 2003, this fatwa declares nuclear weapons haram (forbidden) in Islam. While the regime touts this as evidence of its peaceful nuclear agenda, skeptics contend that the ruling is disingenuous and could be overturned if it serves the interests of the Islamic Republic. To assess this claim, it is crucial to understand the structure of Shia clerical authority, the nature of fatwas, and their implications within Islamic jurisprudence.
Israel is considering carrying out “significant” strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, possibly even within the coming six months, according to two separate reports by major U.S. newspapers on Wednesday. The new Trump administration had so far signaled its willingness to negotiate over a new nuclear deal before drawing on the military option. However, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei several days ago seemed to reject the notion that negotiations are possible, saying it would be “not smart, wise, or honorable,” to talk about the issue with the U.S. “After Khamenei’s remarks where he cast doubt on negotiations with the U.S., the American government is sending a message to Iran’s regime tonight with two articles in major newspapers disclosing how Israel is readying for a strike on [Iran’s] nuclear program in 2025,” commented Jason Brodsky, policy director for United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI).
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Oil Surplus Shrinks Again On Sanctions And Demand, IEA Says | Bloomberg
The International Energy Agency once again slashed expectations for a global oil surplus this year amid stronger demand growth in Asia and sanctions on OPEC+ nations. The agency now sees an overhang of 450,000 barrels a day in 2025, marking a cut of roughly 50% in just two months. It bolstered forecasts for world oil consumption this year by just under 100,000 barrels a day, to 1.1 million per day, and cut projections for output from OPEC+ nations including Russia and Iran as the US targets their shipments. “Anxiety over the impact of new sanctions on Russia and Iran, with fears of potential supply disruptions, triggered an upswing in prices” last month, the Paris-based adviser to major economies said in its monthly report.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Sporadic Anti-Government Protests Continue In Iran For Fourth Day | Iran International
As Iran faces deteriorating economic conditions, anti-government protests have erupted across the country, protesting ongoing power shortages and food price hikes, videos obtained by Iran International show. In Dehdasht, located in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province, locals gathered for the fourth night in a row on Wednesday amid tight security measures. Over the past three nights, protesters chanted slogans aimed at the Supreme Leader, including "Death to the dictator" and "This year is year of blood, Khamenei falls with a thud." While government-affiliated media attempted to portray the unrest in Dehdasht as tribal conflicts, videos of the protests sent to Iran International reveal a focus on economic issues.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
‘Go Forward’: Iran’s Khamenei Urges Military Growth Amid Trump Threats | Aljazeera
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called for the country to further develop its military capabilities after United States President Donald Trump threatened to use force if Tehran does not negotiate on its nuclear programme. Speaking on Wednesday after visiting an exhibition in the country’s capital showcasing the latest defence sector developments, Khamenei said “progress should not be stopped”. “We cannot be satisfied,” Khamenei said. “Say that we previously set a limit for the accuracy of our missiles, but we now feel this limit is no longer enough. We have to go forward.” “Today, our defensive power is well known, our enemies are afraid of this. This is very important for our country,” he said.
IRGC Intelligence Chief Threatens US Interests Globally After Trump Ultimatum | Iran International
The head of the IRGC Intelligence Protection Organization dismissed negotiations with the United States, calling them a "red line" and warning that any threat to Iran’s national interests would be met with reciprocal action worldwide. “If the US attempts any mischief, as the Supreme Leader has warned, we will respond decisively,” Brigadier General Majid Khademi said in the wake of US President Donald Trump's ultimatum for Iran to come to the negotiating table or risk military action. “Should they threaten us, we will threaten them. If they act on their threats, we are fully prepared to retaliate, putting their national interests at risk across the world," added Khademi. Last week, Trump reinstated his so-called "maximum pressure" policy on Iran, which includes efforts to drive its oil exports down to zero.
Trump Touts Negotiations But Tries To Cripple Iran, Pezeshkian Says | Iran International
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian insisted on Wednesday that the country would not yield to external threats after US President Donald Trump mooted the bombing of its adversary earlier this week. "Trump stands at the podium and says, 'I want to negotiate,' but on the other hand, he is closing all the doors," Pezeshkian said during a speech in Bushehr province on Wednesday. "He takes every decision necessary to cripple us, issues orders, and pressures the world to prevent dealings with Iranians. If you are truly a man of negotiation, then why do you do these things?" On February 4, Trump signed a directive reviving his so-called maximum pressure policy on Iran from his first term aimed at driving the Islamic Republic's oil exports to zero.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Iran’s Shahid Bagheri Drone Carrier Is Aimed At Israel And America | The National Interest
When one thinks of nation-states whose navies include aircraft carriers in their fleets, the United States of America is probably the first example to come to mind for most Westerners. Yet the People’s Republic of China, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, India, and Russia have joined the exclusive naval fraternity (though in the case of the latter two countries, the carriers have been more of a source of embarrassment than national pride lately). If we expand our interpretation of the term “aircraft carrier” from just fixed-wing aircraft to include rotary-wing assets, i.e., helicopter carriers, then we can add Japan, Australia, South Korea, Thailand, Egypt, and Brazil to the list.
Iran To Unveil Domestically Developed Supersonic Cruise Missile | The Defense Post
The Iranian military has announced that the country will unveil a new indigenous supersonic cruise missile next month. The system will have a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,242 miles), enhancing Tehran’s naval defense and deterrence capabilities. Along with other recently unveiled Iranian missiles, the new cruise missile will be artificial intelligence-driven to enhance precision strike capabilities. “We now have missiles that can be launched from the depths of the Iranian territory, eliminating the need for coastal launches,” stated the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy, Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri. Additionally, the country recently relocated crucial military assets to high-altitude zones across the coastal areas, “ensuring that no missile or bomb can inflict damage on our assets,” Tangsiri said.
Iran Just Built A Suicide Drone That Strikes From The Deep | Bulgarian Military
Iran’s recent unveiling of the world’s first underwater-launched suicide drone marks a significant milestone in modern warfare, signaling a new era of naval threats and asymmetric military capabilities. This development, which combines stealth, artificial intelligence, and precision targeting, has the potential to disrupt the strategic balance in the Persian Gulf and beyond. As nations worldwide scramble to advance their own drone programs, Iran’s latest innovation raises critical questions about naval defense, countermeasures, and the future of undersea combat. This newly revealed drone, reportedly capable of being launched from beneath the sea, presents a unique threat to both military and commercial vessels. Unlike conventional sea drones that operate on the water’s surface, this system benefits from the element of surprise, making detection and interception significantly more challenging.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Syria Says It Is Seeking 'Clear Policy' From Russia And Iran | Reuters
Syria's foreign minister said on Wednesday that his country had received positive messages but wanted further reassurance from Russia and Iran, main allies of former leader Bashar al-Assad now seeking to retain influence after his overthrow. "There are positive messages, but we want these positive messages to turn into a clear policy that makes the Syrian people feel reassured," Asaad Hassan al-Shibani said at the World Government Summit 2025 in Dubai. "There are clear messages of respect for the new Syrian administration and respect for the sovereignty of the Syrian people. But as I told you, there are wounds among the Syrian people and there is pain that the Syrian people have suffered at the hands of these two countries," he added.
Hezbollah Reacts To Israeli Claim Iran Smuggles Funds At Airport | Newsweek
Hezbollah has told Newsweek it rejected the Israeli military's recent claims that an elite Iranian unit was illicitly using civilian flights at Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport to transfer funds to the Lebanese group in the midst of a ceasefire. The allegation was made Wednesday by the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) Arabic-language spokesperson, Colonel Avichay Adraee, who alleged that the Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah "have been exploiting Beirut Airport and civilian flights to smuggle funds intended to strengthen the terrorist organization and support terror activities against the State of Israel." "The IDF is in contact with the monitoring mechanism of the ceasefire understandings and routinely communicates relevant information in order to stop this smuggling," Adraee said. "Despite these efforts, our assessment is that some funds have been successfully transferred."
Iran’s IRGC Quds Force has been smuggling cash to the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon via the Beirut international airport in recent weeks, the Israeli military says. In a post on X, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman, Col. Avichay Adraee, says the cash has been smuggled to Hezbollah by the Quds Force using civilian flights. The money is being used by the terror group to rebuild itself, according to the IDF. Adraee says the IDF is in contact with a US-led committee supervising the ceasefire and is regularly updating it with “relevant information in order to foil these transfers.” “Despite the efforts made, we estimate that some of the money transfers were carried out successfully,” he says.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Body Of German-Iranian Dissident Autopsied In Germany | Barron’s
German authorities said Wednesday they had carried out an autopsy on the body of the Iran-born German citizen Jamshid Sharmahd, who died in Iran last year in unclear circumstances. The dissident, whose body was only recently released by Iran, had been held in the country since 2020 and sentenced to death on terror charges. Iranian authorities announced Sharmahd's execution at the end of October but revised their account a week later, saying he had died before his sentence could be carried out. Sharmahd's death caused outrage in Germany and sparked a diplomatic dispute with Iran, during which Berlin closed its three consulates in the country.
Two British Nationals In Custody In Iran On 'Security Charges', State Media Reports | Reuters
Two British nationals, a man and a woman, are in custody in Iran's southeastern city of Kerman on security-related charges, state media reported on Thursday. Iran's official news agency published blurred images of the two meeting with the British ambassador but did not identify them. It was not clear when they were detained. British officials have not yet commented on the matter. Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards have arrested dozens of dual nationals and foreigners in recent years, mostly on espionage and security-related charges. Rights groups and some Western countries have accused the Islamic Republic of trying to win concessions from other countries through arrests on security charges that may have been trumped up. Tehran denies arresting people for political reasons.
Trump, Putin Discuss Iran’s Nuclear Program | Iran International
US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin discussed Iran's nuclear program in a phone call between the two leaders on Wednesday. “The issues of Middle East settlement, Iran's nuclear program, and bilateral economic relations between Russia and the United States were also brought up during the conversation,” said the Kremlin in a statement. The conversation also touched on the Ukraine crisis and a prisoner exchange agreement between the Washington and Moscow. Their call hinted at future in-person meetings, potentially in Saudi Arabia. Trump suggested the summit could address broader issues, including Iran and Ukraine. It is a turnaround after Russia's envoy in Tehran had said a day earlier that Western countries are attempting to sideline Russia and China in discussions about Iran's nuclear program due to their close relations with Tehran.