TOP STORIES
Iran Suffers Blow Of ‘Historic Proportions’ With Assad’s Fall | The Wall Street Journal
Iran spent decades and billions of dollars building a network of militias and governments that allowed it to exercise political and military influence across the Middle East, and deter foreign attacks on its soil. In a matter of weeks, the pillars of that alliance came crashing down. The departure of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad is the latest strategic catastrophe that will force Iran to rethink decades-old security policies, just as it is also confronting the election of President-elect Donald Trump and his promises of new pressure on Tehran.
Assad’s Fall Jolts Iran’s Increasingly Vulnerable Leadership | Bloomberg
The tanker carrying oil from Iran had been sailing to Syria with critical supplies when it was forced into a U-turn just before entering the Suez Canal. Word of President Bashar al-Assad’s downfall had reached the vessel, with the cargo’s sender reduced from a powerful, longtime sponsor of his regime to a mere spectator of its demise. In a matter of days, the Islamic Republic had lost one the last men standing in its so-called Axis of Resistance, leaving its foreign policy effectively in tatters. Officials in Tehran this week sought to play down the significance, saying they had seen it coming and blaming Assad for intransigence. But as the world weighs the consequences of Assad’s ouster and its impact on Middle East dynamics, Iran is left scrambling to figure out how to respond with questions over the vulnerability of its leadership.
The Israeli Jews Who Spied For Iran In Biggest Infiltration In Decades | Reuters
Israel's arrest of almost 30 mostly Jewish citizens who allegedly spied for Iran in nine covert cells has caused alarm in the country and points to Tehran's biggest effort in decades to infiltrate its arch foe, four Israeli security sources said. Among the unfulfilled goals of the alleged cells was the assassination of an Israeli nuclear scientist and former military officials, while one group gathered information on military bases and air defences, security service Shin Bet has said. Last week, the agency and Israel's police said a father and son team had passed on details of Israeli force movements including in the Golan Heights where they lived. The arrests follow repeated efforts by Iranian intelligence operatives over the past two years to recruit ordinary Israelis to gather intelligence and carry out attacks in exchange for money, the four serving and former military and security officials said.
UANI IN THE NEWS
The collapse of the Syrian Assad regime, once a main pillar of support for Iran’s regional policy, has given rise to mutual recriminations that threaten the internal stability of the regime just as it struggles to cope with one the most challenging periods of its existence, according to recent reports... The internal fault lines within the IRGC center on a conflict between the older, veteran commanders and young radicals, according to Kasra Aarabi, director of IRGC Research at the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) think tank.
Israel Admits Destroying Assad’s Navy As It Creates ‘Sterile Defence Zone’ | The Telegraph
Israel said it had destroyed Syria’s naval fleet on Tuesday as troops launched the first raids into the country’s territory. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) initially denied reports its tanks had advanced six miles into Syrian territory after a widespread bombing campaign that officials say wiped out the Assad regime’s military arsenal… Dror Doron, senior advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran and former senior analyst in the office of the prime minister of Israel, told The Telegraph that Israel would not gain anything from sending troops to the Syrian capital. “There is no way Israel would advance to Damascus. It would be counterproductive. There is an active effort by Hezbollah to portray what’s happening in Syria as an Israeli conspiracy,” Mr Doron said.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Mounting Concern In Europe Over Iran’s Nuclear Program | Iran Focus
The European members of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) issued a joint statement condemning Iran’s recent actions to accelerate the production of high-enriched uranium, as reflected in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report... According to the statement published on Tuesday, December 10, on the websites of the foreign ministries of Britain, France, and Germany, these three countries expressed concern over the increase in the number of centrifuges and Iran’s preparations to install new ones. The IAEA’s recent report highlighted a significant acceleration in the enrichment of uranium to 60% purity at Iran’s Fordow facility.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Iran's Currency Plumbs New Lows After Assad's Downfall | Iran International
The Iranian rial has hit new lows in the wake of Bashar al-Assad’s fall in Syria, in a sign that the ouster of Tehran's main Arab ally may be hollowing out economic confidence. The dollar was trading at more than 730,000 rials in Tehran’s free exchange market on Tuesday, up from 700,000 just a week ago. The downfall of Assad, whose ruling family has been the one of the Islamic Republic's earliest and strongest allies since 1979, severs Iran's land corridor to Lebanon which supplied weapons to Hezbollah for its periodic confrontations with Israel. The slide adds to Iran’s vulnerabilities and could indicate its relative weakness in the region.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iranian Women Could Face Death Penalty For Defying New Morality Laws | The Guardian
Women in Iran could face the death sentence or up to 15 years in prison if they defy new compulsory morality laws due to come into effect this week. New laws promoting the “culture of chastity and hijab” passed by the Iranian authorities earlier this month impose severe penalties for those caught “promoting nudity, indecency, unveiling or improper dressing”, including fines of up to £12,500, flogging and prison sentences ranging from five to 15 years for repeat offenders. Article 37 of the new law also stipulates that those promoting or propagating indecency, unveiling or “bad dressing” to foreign entities, including international media and civil society organisations, could face a decade in prison and up to £12,500 in fines.
Female Iranian Referee Leaves Country Due To Security Pressures | Iran International
A prominent international football referee has left Iran due to threats and pressure from the country’s security forces, according to information exclusively obtained by Iran International. The revelation that Mahsa Ghorbani departed follows a recent interview with the Shargh Network in which she highlighted challenges faced by female referees in Iran. "I cannot continue my work or life in a country where my safety is constantly under threat," Ghorbani was quoted as saying.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
President Joe Biden has approved a new national security memorandum that is meant to serve as a roadmap for the incoming Trump administration as it looks to counter growing cooperation among China, Iran, North Korea and Russia, the White House said Wednesday. Biden administration officials began developing the guidance this summer. It was shaped to be a document that could help the next administration build its approach from day one on how it will go about dealing with the tightening relationships between the United States’ most prominent adversaries and competitors, according to two senior administration officials. The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the White House, said the classified memorandum would not be made public because of the sensitivity of some of its findings.
The Biden administration quietly extended a sanctions waiver that will grant Iran access to roughly $10 billion from Iraq two days after President-elect Donald Trump’s Election Day victory. The controversial waiver, which has been repeatedly extended by Secretary of State Antony Blinken despite strong opposition from congressional Republicans, allows the Iranian regime access to funds from Iraq in exchange for electricity purchases. “On November 7th, the [State Department] did renew Iraq’s electricity waiver for the 23rd time since 2018,” State Department spokesman Vedant Patel confirmed last week. “It was done so for an additional 120 days,” Patel noted – a time frame that will overlap with the early months of Trump’s second term in office.
USS Harry S. Truman Aircraft Carrier Heads To Middle East Amid Regional Tensions | Al-Arabiya
The USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group is set to arrive in the Middle East later this week, a US official confirmed to Al Arabiya English on Tuesday. The move comes amid escalating tensions in the region, marked by the recent collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime to a Syrian opposition group, Israel’s ongoing conflict in Gaza, and the outbreak of war between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah in September.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
The Israeli military says it carried out strikes against 320 “strategic targets” in Syria since the fall of the Assad regime over the weekend, destroying advanced weaponry Israel fears could fall into the hands of hostile elements, including Hezbollah. The name of the operation to destroy the former Assad regime army’s weapons is dubbed “Bashan Arrow” within the military, after the biblical name for the region in the Golan Heights and southern Syria. The military estimates that it has taken out over 70% of the former Assad regime’s strategic military capabilities. The strikes began late Saturday, first taking out Syrian air defenses to give the Israeli Air Force more freedom.
ECONOMIC WARFARE
Houthi Attacks Turn Back The Clock For Shipping As Costs Pile Up | The New York Times
Before this year, Tobias Kammann, a German container ship captain, had only once sailed around the southern tip of Africa, and the lack of other vessels in the little-trafficked waters made him feel very much alone. But these days, there are so many ships there, he said, that “it’s a bit like the autobahn.” To get from Asia to Europe and back, global shipping companies have for decades sailed through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. But a year ago, the Houthi insurgents in Yemen began targeting vessels in the Red Sea with drones and missiles, forcing shipping companies to divert their cargo around the Cape of Good Hope at Africa’s southern tip, a route that is some 3,500 nautical miles and 10 days longer.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iran To Shut Offices, Colleges And Schools In Tehran Because Of Air Pollution | ABC News
Iran announced Tuesday that all governmental offices, universities, and schools in the province of Tehran will be closed for two days because of poor air quality, state TV reported. The capital city of Tehran — home to over 10 million people — saw the closure of elementary schools and kindergartens on Saturday and Sunday, but authorities said Tuesday that because of increasing pollution, all governmental offices, universities and schools will be closed on Wednesday and Thursday, adding that schooling will continue on online platforms. The TV report also said that banks, essential public services and health centers would remain open on those days.
CONGRESS & IRAN
Members of the U.S. House of Representatives challenged the organizer of a protest in July that devolved into antisemitic vandalism and the burning of an American flag, pointing out relationships with radical groups and the Chinese Communist Party. Rep. Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.), chair of the House Committee on Natural Resources, and Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), chair of the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigation, led a letter on Monday signed by eight other Congress members to Manolo De Los Santos, executive director of The People’s Forum. The left-wing organization describes itself as “a movement incubator for the rocking class and marginalized communities to build unity across historic lines of division at home and abroad.”
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Iran Edges Away From Old Ally Assad After Syria Rebel Victory | Al-Monitor
Since the overthrow of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, Iran has started to distance itself from their longtime alliance, instead stressing the history of friendship between the two countries. Rebels advanced from their stronghold in the northwestern city of Idlib to the capital Damascus in less than two weeks, ousting Assad on Sunday and ending 50 years of rule by his clan.
Iranian officials and state media have since shifted their tone on the rebels, calling them "opposition groups" instead of "terrorists". State television, which mostly reflects the official narrative, called the developments "a new chapter" and even criticised Assad.
Netanyahu Warns Syrian Regime Against Giving Iran Foothold In Country | Jewish News Syndicate
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned during a meeting at the headquarters of the Israel Defense Forces in Tel Aviv on Tuesday that if the new Syrian jihadist regime befriends Iran, Israel will take decisive action against it. “If this regime allows Iran to regain its foothold in Syria—or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons or any other weapons to Hezbollah—or attacks us, we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price from it,” he said. “What happened to the previous regime will happen to this regime as well,” he warned.
What To Know About The Countries Still Dropping Bombs In Syria | The New York Times
Great powers have fought for centuries for influence in the territory known today as Syria, each seeing a prize in its strategic position, stretching from the Mediterranean Sea to the Euphrates River and beyond. That struggle continues today. In Syria’s 13-year civil war, Iran, Russia and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah backed the brutal regime of President Bashar al-Assad, while the United States, Turkey and other countries backed various rebel groups. Now, after a lightning advance by rebels and the rapid-fire collapse of Mr. al-Assad’s government, great powers — albeit with different ones in ascendence — are jockeying for advantage within Syria’s borders. For the first time in years, the skies are empty of Syrian and Russian bombers — but airstrikes by Israel, Turkey and the United States continue.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
US Military Says It Defeated Houthi Attack On Ships In Gulf Of Aden | Reuters
Two U.S. Navy destroyers escorting three merchant vessels through the Gulf of Aden defeated an attack by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, the U.S. military said on Tuesday. The Houthis launched multiple drones and a cruise missile while the ships were transiting the Gulf on Monday and Tuesday, U.S. Central Command said in a post on X. "The reckless attacks resulted in no injuries and no damage to any vessels, civilians or U.S. Naval," CENTCOM said.
TURKEY & IRAN
After Toppling Assad Regime, HTS & Turkey Attack Towns Of US-backed Kurds In Syria | Firstpost
After toppling Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Syria’s main opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Turkey have found a common enemy in US-backed Kurds. Even before the HTS-led offensive captured Damascus and forced Assad to flee to Russia, Turkey and a militia it supports, the Syrian National Army (SNA), had opened a front against Kurds over the weekend, who run an autonomous administration in northeastern Syria called Autonomous Administration of. North and East Syria (AANES).