Iran Is Sending Regional Fighters To Syria. Can They Save Assad Again?

TOP STORIES 

Iran Is Sending Regional Fighters To Syria. Can They Save Assad Again? | The Washington Post 

Iran is scrambling to mobilize regional fighters to help prop up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and has deployed members of Hezbollah and Iraq’s Shiite militias to Syria, soldiers and commanders told The Washington Post. They are awaiting orders to fight. Assad’s forces are struggling to hold back a sudden advance by Islamist rebels who have taken over the city of Aleppo and nearby towns and villages. The last time Syria’s civil war threatened Assad’s hold on power, Hezbollah ground forces played a pivotal role in turning the tide in his favor. But with the Lebanese militant group significantly degraded by its war with Israel, it’s unclear if it has the will or ability this time to meaningfully change the direction of the conflict. While Iraqi militias could potentially fill some gaps, analysts say those fighters have less training and inferior munitions.  

Exclusive: A Look At Hezbollah's Plan To Terrorize And Invade Northern Israel | Fox News 

The Iran-backed terrorist movement Hezbollah laid the foundation to launch an Oct. 7-Hamas style invasion into Israel’s north, according to shocking new video footage and documents first viewed and obtained by Fox News Digital. "Hezbollah has been planning their own 10/7," an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) intelligence official told Fox News Digital, in a reference to the Hamas massacre of over 1,200 people on Oct. 7, 2023, including more than 40 Americans, in southern Israel. "The plan has been effectively eliminated. We dismantled the high-level command of Radwan," the IDF official said about Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force.  

Iran’s Latest Crackdown On Women’s Rights Sparks Backlash | Bloomberg 

Iran’s president criticized a new law that will increase restrictions on women’s rights and impose tough punishments on those accused of flouting dress codes. The legislation includes hefty financial penalties such as the seizure of assets and bank accounts. Women who refuse to pay fines won’t be allowed to have passports, and businesses such as cafes and taxis will be liable for prosecution if women with “bad hijab” are seen using their services. “While we may want to make something right, with this intervention we’ll also end up ruining a lot of other things,” President Masoud Pezeshkian told state TV on Monday after parliament approved the “Chastity and Hijab” law. He cited a need to avoid “damaging national harmony.”  

UANI IN THE NEWS 

Iranian Oil Keeps Flowing Ahead Of Expected Return To ‘Maximum Pressure’ | Lloyd’s List 

Despite a substantial tightening of sanctions this year, Iran’s oil exports are headed to their highest levels since prohibitions were reimposed by the Trump administration in 2019… According to preliminary figures from New York-based advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, Tehran exported almost 1.6m barrels per day in November, about its average pace for the year to date... Keeping Iran’s oil flowing around the restrictions is the fleet servicing sanctioned trades, which has swelled to about 470 tankers and liquefied petroleum gas carriers, according to UANI’s latest tally. “As we’ve said in the past, the ghost fleet is huge,” UANI chief of staff Claire Jungman told Lloyd’s List. “These sanctions are having an impact but not enough yet because Iran can easily replace these vessels with others.” Also critical to keeping Iran in business is Chinese thirst for the sanctioned barrels. According to UANI, almost 92% of Iran’s exports in November were destined to China.  

West Remains Blind to Iranian Regime’s War On Jews | UANI Director Of IRGC Research Kasra Aarabi And UANI Senior Advisor Saeid Golkar For The Middle East Forum 

With the murder of Rabbi Zvi Kogan, an Israeli rabbi who helped provide kosher food in the United Arab Emirates, now confirmed as terrorism, the Iranian regime’s involvement is likely. The murder followed the killing of Arvin Ghahremani in Kermanshah prison on November 4, 2024, the first Iranian Jew executed by the Islamic Republic regime in 30 years. Even though many Western officials remain in denial, both deaths reflect the reality that the Islamic Republic of Iran has ramped up its war on Jews. In the wake of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, many Western leaders and academics have attempted to rationalize and even justify Tehran’s growing attacks on Israel, whether by proxy or, in April and October 2024, directly. Much of the legacy media embrace their view that two factors drive Iranian leaders: first, support for Palestinians and, second, as an act of deterrence against Israeli aggression.   

The West Cannot Miss This Opportunity To Topple Assad | UANI Director Of IRGC Research Kasra Aarabi and UANI Senior Advisor Saeid Golkar For The Telegraph 

“If Syria falls, Hezbollah will be besieged… and all of its achievements will be lost.” Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s terror chief – recently killed in an Israeli airstrike – made this assertion in 2015. Nasrallah’s words are perhaps more important in today’s post-October 7 world, than they were almost a decade ago, not least as Syrian opposition forces retake territory from President Bashar al-Assad. Against this backdrop, a unique opportunity is emerging for Israel and the West to land a decisive blow to Assad, the Iranian regime and their terrorist proxy network. Retrospectively, it’s hard to know if the fall of Assad in 2015 would have prevented the October 7 terrorist attacks against Israel – after all, back then, Hezbollah was intact. Today, however, the most lethal Iranian regime proxy in Lebanon has had its capabilities decimated by Israel – and, crucially, Tehran’s primary supply line to rebuild Hezbollah runs through Assad’s Syria.  

NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM 

World Entering A New Nuclear Age, Head Of Armed Forces Warns | Sky News 

The world is entering a new nuclear age with a proliferation of weapons and the near collapse of a set of rules to control their use, the head of the UK armed forces has warned. In his starkest ever public remarks, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin accused Russia of making "wild threats of tactical nuclear use" as well as conducting "large-scale nuclear exercises and simulated attacks against NATO countries". The chief of the defence staff also highlighted China's nuclear build-up, Iran's nuclear ambitions and North Korea's ballistic missile programme and "erratic behaviour". He said Pyongyang presents "a regional and, increasingly, a global threat".  

SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS 

Iran’s Rial Plummets To Record Lows Amid More Setbacks | Iran International 

The Iranian currency hit an all-time low of 719,500 rials to the US dollar on Wednesday, marking the fourth record drop since September, when Tehran began losing influence in the region to Israel and other players. Compared to the same date last year, when the dollar was valued at 504,000 rials, the current rate represents a staggering 43% rise. The rial began trading at 716,000 to the dollar on Wednesday morning but surged to nearly 720,000 rials by noon. Tether, which is an equivalent of US dollar in crypto markets, was being traded at 726,000 rials on the same day.  

PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS 

Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Narges Mohammadi Gets 3-Week Reprieve From Prison In Iran After Surgery | Associated Press 

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi was released temporarily from prison Wednesday after undergoing a complex surgery in Iran that saw part of a bone in her right leg removed over cancer fears, her supporters said. Video footage from Iran’s capital, Tehran, showed Mohammadi taken out of the back of an ambulance, her black hair fanned out without the required hijab, or headscarf, covering it as she called out into the street. Her right leg was covered in a fabric cast. “Hello freedom!” she shouted. “Women, life, freedom! Freedom is our right! Long live freedom!”  

Iran Dissident Group Says Six Members Sentenced To Death | Reuters 

Six Iranian dissidents have been sentenced to death for charges ranging from belonging to an opposition group, collusion against the state and armed rebellion, according to a ruling seen by Reuters on Wednesday and a statement from the group. The sentences from Nov. 25 come amid a rise in what Human Rights Watch, opens new tab said in November was a "flurry of new death sentences" in recent weeks. The six men, part of the People’s Mojahedin Organisation of Iran (PMOI/MEK), are aged between 32-65 and have a history of opposing Iranian authorities.  

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS 

Trump Names New Point Person For Negotiating The Release Of Hostages, Detainees Abroad | Associated Press 

President-elect Donald Trump on Wednesday named a health care executive to serve as his administration’s lead hostage negotiator at a time when the U.S. is trying to secure the release of prisoners in Gaza and other regions around the world. Adam Boehler will serve as the special presidential envoy for hostage affairs. That role has been held since 2020 by Roger Carstens, who was appointed by Trump and remained in the job for the duration of the Biden administration. During that period, the U.S. has brought home several dozen Americans held hostage or wrongfully detained in countries including Russia — among them, WNBA star Brittney Griner and Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich — Iran, China, Venezuela and Afghanistan.  

Maximum Pressure On Iran Will Return, Trump's Mideast Adviser Says | Iran International 

US president-elect Donald Trump will revive his maximum pressure strategy in dealing with Iran, his freshly appointed senior adviser on the Middle East Massad Boulos said, in the clearest indication yet the incoming administration would enforce Iran's isolation. “Of course, he will once again pursue his maximum pressure [campaign] against Iran,” Boulos told the French outlet Le Point, adding that Trump will be open to diplomacy alongside his firm approach. “[He] is very clear that he absolutely does not want Iran to have a nuclear program,” he said, and would be “ready to run serious negotiations” with Tehran to achieve that goal.  

US Told Assad It Would Pull Troops From Northeast Syria If He Closed Iran's Supply Lines: Report | Middle East Eye 

The US told Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that it was willing to withdraw American soldiers from northeast Syria and reduce sanctions in return for him shutting down Iranian arms supply lines.  The US was working with Israel and the United Arab Emirates to make the offer to Assad, according to a report published by The New York Times on Wednesday.  The report provides few details, such as who delivered the messages to Assad and how the US and Israel envisioned the Syrian leader would remove Iran from his country.  Assad relies heavily on Russian air support and Iranian ground troops, mainly in the form of Shia militias and Hezbollah, to remain in power.  Russia and Iran helped Assad wrest back control of much of Syria from opposition rebels, including those backed by Gulf states, roughly a decade ago.  

MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS 

Iranian Fighter Jet Crashes In The Country’s South, Killing 2 Pilots | Associated Press 

An Iranian fighter jet crashed in the south of the country Wednesday, killing the two pilots, state media reported. State television identified the pilots as Col. Hamid Reza Ranjbar and Col. Manouchehr Pirzadeh, saying they were on a test flight after the plane was overhauled. The crash took place near the town of Firouzabad, some 770 kilometers (480 miles) south of the capital Tehran. The report did not elaborate on the type of plane or provide a cause for the crash. Video on the semiofficial Fars news agency, which is close to the military, showed columns of white smoke billowing from the remains of the aircraft.  

Isolated Hamas Faces Collapsing Negotiating Stance After Drastic Trump Threat | The Times Of Israel 

Earlier this week, two days after Hamas released a propaganda video showing American-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander pleading with Donald Trump to secure his release, the American president-elect typed out a message that was sure to make the terror group and its backers in Iran take notice. “Everybody is talking about the hostages who are being held so violently, inhumanely, and against the will of the entire world, in the Middle East – but it’s all talk and no action!” Trump wrote Monday on his Truth Social platform, without mentioning Israel or the Palestinian terror group by name. “Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that if the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity,” he continued.  

RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN 

Lebanon's Hezbollah Aims To Rebuild Longer Term Despite Israeli Blows, US Intel Says | Reuters 

Lebanon's Hezbollah has been significantly degraded militarily by Israel, but the Iran-backed group will likely try to rebuild its stockpiles and forces and pose a longterm threat to the U.S. and its regional allies, four sources briefed on updated U.S. intelligence told Reuters. U.S. intelligence agencies assessed in recent weeks that Hezbollah, even amid Israel's military campaign, had begun to recruit new fighters and was trying to find ways to rearm through domestic production and by smuggling materials through Syria, said a senior U.S. official, an Israeli official and two U.S. lawmakers briefed on the intelligence, speaking on condition of anonymity. It's unclear to what extent those efforts have slowed since last week when Hezbollah and Israel reached a shaky ceasefire, two of the sources said. The deal specifically prohibits Hezbollah from procuring weapons or weapons parts.  

A Look At Hezbollah's Plan To Terrorize And Invade Northern Israel | Fox News 

The Iran-backed terrorist movement Hezbollah laid the foundation to launch an Oct. 7-Hamas style invasion into Israel’s north, according to shocking new video footage and documents first viewed and obtained by Fox News Digital. "Hezbollah has been planning their own 10/7," an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) intelligence official told Fox News Digital, in a reference to the Hamas massacre of over 1,200 people on Oct. 7, 2023, including more than 40 Americans, in southern Israel. "The plan has been effectively eliminated. We dismantled the high-level command of Radwan," the IDF official said about Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force.  

Syrian Rebels Enter Hama, Pushing Army From Key City | Reuters 

Syrian rebels ousted pro-government forces from Hama on Thursday, bringing the insurgents a major new victory after a lightning advance across northern Syria and dealing a new blow to President Bashar al-Assad and his Russian and Iranian allies. The Syrian army said it was redeploying outside the city "to preserve civilians lives and prevent urban combat" after what it called intense clashes. Rebels said they had taken districts in the city's northeast and had seized the central prison, freeing detainees. Al Jazeera television broadcast what it said were images of rebels inside Hama, some of them meeting civilians near a roundabout while others drove in military vehicles and on mopeds.  

CHINA & IRAN 

Iran Says Determined To Boost Ties With Russia, China To Counter US | Iran International 

Iran's president says the country seeks greater cooperation with Beijing and Moscow to confront what he called Washington's unilateralism, just a few weeks before Donald Trump restores his so-called maximum pressure policy aimed at isolating Iran. "The United States pursues authoritarianism and unilateralism on the international stage," Pezeshkian said in a meeting on Wednesday with China's vice premier Zhang Guoqing in Tehran. "We are determined to expand our cooperation with China and Russia to counter unilateralism," the Iranian president said.  

GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN 

Iran, Saudi Arabia Discuss Expanding Agricultural And Environmental Ties | Iran International 

After years of fraught relations, Iran and Saudi Arabia are considering joint projects in agriculture and natural resources, an Iranian minister said. At the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (COP16) in Riyadh, Iran’s Minister of Agriculture, Gholamreza Nouri, outlined progress made during bilateral talks. "We laid the groundwork for developing infrastructure in natural resources, the environment, and agriculture between Iran and Saudi Arabia," Nouri said. His remarks mark a significant development in the rapprochement fostered by the 2023 China-brokered agreement between the two nations.  

IRAQ & IRAN 

Iraq’s Imports From Iran Reach $8 Billion In 8 Months | Iraqi News 

Recent figures of Iran’s international trade revealed that Iraq has become Iran’s second-largest export destination, receiving commodities worth nearly $8 billion over the last eight months. During this entire period, Iran exported 103.558 million tons total, worth $38.152 billion. Compared to the same period last year, there has been a 14.66 percent increase in weight and an 18 percent increase in value, Shafaq News reported. Iran’s top export markets included China, Iraq, the UAE, Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. Iranian media outlets revealed last month that Iran’s top export destination between September 22 and October 21 was Iraq, with $2.78 billion worth of imports.  

AFGHANISTAN & IRAN 

Iran To Transfer 500 Afghan Prisoners In Initial Phase, Justice Ministry Says | Amu TV
Iran’s Deputy Minister of Justice for Human Rights and International Affairs, Askar Jalalian, on Wednesday announced plans to transfer 500 Afghan prisoners to Afghanistan as part of the first phase of a broader prisoner transfer initiative. According to Iranian media reports, Jalalian revealed that approximately 8,000 foreign nationals are incarcerated in Iran, with Afghan citizens constituting the majority. “We have prepared a list of 500 prisoners and submitted it to the Afghan side [the Taliban] for identity verification. Once their review is complete, the transfer process will begin,” Jalalian said. He noted that most Afghan prisoners in Iran are serving sentences for drug trafficking, smuggling of prohibited goods, theft, and homicide. Jalalian emphasized that drug-related offenses represent the majority of crimes and that Iran’s criminal law is “particularly stringent” in addressing such cases.