TOP STORIES
Iran Pulls Most Forces From Syria, In Blow To Tehran’s Regional Ambitions | The Wall Street Journal
Iranian forces have largely withdrawn from Syria following the Assad regime’s December collapse, according to U.S., European and Arab officials, in a significant blow to Tehran’s strategy for projecting power in the Middle East. The Iranian withdrawal marks the demise of a yearslong effort in which Tehran used Syria as a hub in its broader regional strategy of partnering with regimes and allied militias to spread influence and wage proxy war against the U.S. and Israel. Iranian-backed armed groups in Syria have launched attacks on U.S. forces and aided in attacks on Israel. Members of Iran’s elite Quds Force have now fled to Iran and the militia groups have disbanded, a senior U.S. official said. The Islamic Republic spent billions of dollars and sent thousands of military personnel and allied fighters to Syria after the Arab Spring uprising in 2011, to prop up the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
Iran's Nuclear Programme Nearing Point Of No Return, France's Macron Says | Reuters
Iran's disputed uranium enrichment drive is nearing a point of no return and European partners to a moribund 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran should consider reimposing sanctions if there is no progress with Tehran, France's president said on Monday. Addressing an annual conference with French ambassadors to outline foreign policy objectives in 2025, President Emmanuel Macron described Iran as the main "strategic and security challenge" for France and Europe. "The acceleration of the nuclear programme leads us nearly to the point of no return," Macron said. Iran says it is enriching uranium for peaceful purposes and has stepped up the programme since U.S. President-elect Donald Trump pulled Washington out of the 2015 deal during his first term of office and restored tough U.S. sanctions on Tehran.
How Iran Moves Sanctioned Oil Around The World | Reuters
“Despite some of the West’s toughest sanctions, Iran has built a roaring global trade for its oil. It relies on a shadow fleet of tankers that conceal their activities to skirt sanctions, and willing buyers in Asia to keep its economy afloat and to finance anti-Western militias in the Middle East. Tehran's oil exports brought in $53 billion in 2023 and $54 billion a year earlier, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates, and output during 2024 was running at its highest since 2018, based on OPEC data. It was former U.S. President Donald Trump who ditched the West's nuclear deal with Iran and reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil in 2018. Set to return to the White House in January, Trump is expected to once again target Iran's oil industry with "maximum pressure", say Iranian, Arab and Western officials.”
UANI IN THE NEWS
Iran’s Oil Exports Soar To 587M Barrels, Led By China’s Thirst | G Captain
Despite tightening Western sanctions, Iran’s oil exports reached 587 million barrels in 2024, marking a significant 10.75% increase from the previous year, with China emerging as the dominant buyer, according to United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), a non-profit organization tracking Iranian oil movements. The surge in exports highlights the regime’s growing ability to circumvent international restrictions to continue illicitly exporting oil. China’s role in Iran’s oil trade has become nearly absolute, with Chinese imports accounting for 91% of Iran’s total oil exports in 2024. The nation imported 533 million barrels, representing a substantial 24% increase from 2023, primarily driven by demand from Shandong province’s “teapot” refineries. “This year’s data trends reveal a regime that adapts quickly to enforcement measures, requiring equally dynamic responses in 2025,” notes UANI.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer reportedly left a November meeting with Donald Trump believing the US president-elect will either support an Israeli military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities or direct a US strike on those sites himself. The revelation was reported Monday in the Axios news site, which cited two sources who spoke to Dermer — a close confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — after the meeting at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. The report said that Israel is seriously considering a strike of its own and that outgoing US President Joe Biden’s aides have also urged him to carry out a US strike before Trump takes office. No active conversations about such a strike are still being held at the White House, Axios clarified.
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
France Says Conditions Of Citizens Held In Iran Akin To Torture | Reuters
The situation of three French citizens held in Iran is worsening with some being detained in conditions similar to torture, France's foreign minister said on Tuesday, adding that future ties and any lifting of sanctions would depend on their fate. French officials have toughened their language towards Iran in recent weeks, notably over the advancement of its nuclear programme and regional activities, but also the detention of European citizens in the country. President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday that Iran was "the main strategic and security challenge" for France and Europe, with Iran nearing the point of no-return on its nuclear programme. "The situation of our compatriots held hostage in Iran is simply unacceptable; they have been unjustly detained for several years, in undignified conditions that, for some, fall within the definition of torture under international law," Jean-Noel Barrot told a conference of French ambassadors.
UN Says Iran Executed Over 900 People In 2024, Including Dozens Of Women | Reuters
The number of people executed in Iran rose to 901 last year, including 31 women, some of whom were convicted of murdering their husbands to fend off rape or after being forced into marriage, the U.N. human rights office said on Tuesday. Most of the executions were for drug-related offences, but political dissidents and people connected with mass protests in 2022 over the death in police custody of a 22-year-old woman were also among the victims, the U.N. statement said. "It is deeply disturbing that yet again we see an increase in the number of people subjected to the death penalty in Iran year-on-year," United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said in a statement sent to journalists. "It is high time Iran stemmed this ever-swelling tide of executions."
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Executions Of Women In Iran Hit Highest Level In 17 Years: Report | Jurist News
Iran Human Rights (IHRNGO) reported Monday that at least 31 women were executed under Islamic law in the country 2024, which marks the highest annual toll in 17 years. The report also highlighted a troubling surge in executions disproportionately affecting female prisoners. The report stated that approximately 70 percent of them were accused of killing their male partners, often in the context of an abusive marriage, including child brides. However, Iran’s judiciary does not recognize mitigating circumstances such as spousal abuse or marital rape under Sharia law. Furthermore, Iran’s qisas (retributive justice) allows the victim’s family to demand either execution, forgiveness or diyya (blood money). The law contributed to the surge in the execution of women.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Iran Doubles Number Of Military Drills As It Prepares For Donald Trump | Financial Times
Iran’s armed forces have nearly doubled the number of annual winter exercises this year as the Islamic republic seeks to project strength following a series of regional military blows by Israel and the election of Donald Trump in the US. The spokesperson for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini, announced on Monday that about 30 land, air and maritime drills had commenced across six western and southern provinces and would continue until mid-March. These exercises — in joint operations between the ideologically motivated guards and the conventional army — were reportedly designed to counter “new threats”, he said, without providing specifics. “The number of drills has almost doubled this year compared to last year, in response to the evolving threat landscape,” Naeini told the Financial Times on the sidelines of a press briefing in Tehran.
IRANIAN REGIONAL AGGRESSION
Israeli Military On High Alert As Regional Tensions, Iranian Rhetoric Escalate | The Media Line
Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi has placed the Israeli military on high alert, warning that Iran may take extreme measures against Israel in the coming days. According to a report from Walla News, this heightened caution stems from escalating tensions in Iran in the country’s economic, political, and military spheres. Unnamed defense sources cited in the report indicate that these factors, combined with uncertainty surrounding the return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House later this month, could push Tehran toward aggressive actions. Given the complex and unpredictable nature of Iran’s current situation, Israeli military leadership is preparing for a range of possible scenarios, though specific details were not disclosed. This attack would be the third direct Iranian attack on Israel since the war began, following major strikes in April 2024 and October 2024.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Iran Denies Link Between Arrest Of Italian In Tehran And Iranian In Italy | Barron’s
Iran denied on Monday any link between the recent arrest of an Italian journalist in Tehran and that of an Iranian national by Italy, amid a diplomatic standoff between the two countries. In December, Iranian national Mohammad Abedini, 38, was arrested in Italy at the behest of the United States over export violations linked to a deadly attack on US servicemen. Shortly after, Iranian authorities arrested Italian journalist Cecilia Sala for "violating the law of the Islamic republic" while on a reporting trip in Tehran. "The (two cases) are not linked," said foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei during a weekly news conference. On Friday, Iran's foreign ministry summoned the Italian ambassador to Tehran to protest against what it called the illegal detention of Abedini. The day before, the Italian foreign ministry summoned Iran's ambassador in Rome, Mohammad Reza Sabouri, to discuss Sala's case and demand her "immediate release."
MISCELLANEOUS
France Says Fate Of Citizens Held In Iran Worsening | Al Arabiya News
The situation of three French citizens held in Iran is worsening with some being detained in conditions similar to torture, France’s foreign minister said on Tuesday, adding that future ties and sanctions lifting would depend on their fate. “The situation of our compatriots held hostage in Iran is simply unacceptable; they have been unjustly detained for several years, in undignified conditions that, for some, fall within the definition of torture under international law,” Jean-Noel Barrot told a conference of French ambassadors. “I say to the Iranian authorities: our hostages must be released. Our bilateral relations and the future of sanctions depend on it.”