TOP STORIES
Iran Preparing Major Retaliatory Strike From Iraq Within Days, Israeli Intel Suggests | Axios
Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the U.S. presidential election, two Israeli sources tell Axios. Why it matters: Israel and Iran have been engaged in an escalating tit-for-tat for weeks. Carrying the attack out through pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and not directly from Iranian territory could be an attempt by Iran to avoid another Israeli attack against strategic targets in Iran. Driving the news: The sources said Israeli intelligence suggests the attack is expected to be carried out from Iraq using a large number of drones and ballistic missiles.
U.S. adversaries have targeted Spanish-language speakers and other minority groups in efforts to influence the presidential election, seeking to fan internal social divisions and elevate their favored candidate through disinformation and propaganda. Both Russia and Iran have attempted in recent months to focus on specific slices of the electorate to influence voters toward their preferred outcome, according to U.S. intelligence officials and disinformation researchers. Aided by artificial intelligence, Iran has created websites that pose as legitimate local news sources to target both Muslim and Black populations in the U.S., including in swing states, experts said, though the sites appear to attract minimal readers.
Germany ordered the closure of all three Iranian Consulates in the country on Thursday in response to the execution of Iranian German prisoner Jamshid Sharmahd , who lived in the United States and was kidnapped in Dubai in 2020 by Iranian security forces. Sharmahd, 69, was put to death in Iran on Monday on terrorism charges, the Iranian judiciary said. That followed a 2023 trial that Germany, the U.S. and international rights groups dismissed as a sham. The decision to close the Iranian Consulates in Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich, announced by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, leaves the Islamic Republic with only its embassy in Berlin.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Mullahs Want To Incite Violence In The USA On Election Day | Bild
Hacker attacks, influence operations, paid thugs – the Iranian regime is trying by all means to manipulate the elections in the USA. Just last week, software giant Microsoft reported that it had noticed attempts by Iranian hackers to test various websites in the particularly important swing states for vulnerabilities. The aim of the hacker attacks: to influence the presidential elections. […] Iranian agents of influence are also trying to further fuel anti-Israel protests in the US in the run-up to the elections , Iran expert Jason Brodsky told BILD. The regime in Tehran is using a division of labor to manipulate the mood in the elections , said Brodsky. "The State Department is promoting individuals and media to spread the regime's messages and create rifts between the United States and Israel."
IRGC-Linked Daily Calls For Building Nuclear Deterrence | Iran International
A hardline Iranian newspaper affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards has called for building nuclear weapons as a form of deterrence following Israeli air strikes on October 26. In an editorial penned by the editor-in-chief of the Javan newspaper, Gholamreza Sadeghian, the IRGC-aligned outlet categorized four types of deterrence and said that the Islamic Republic has achieved the first three: political, economic, and military. […] According to Jack Roush, a research associate at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations -- a little-known but influential body handpicked by Khamenei-- may provide the spur the Supreme Leader needs to ditch his avowed refusal of nuclear weapons and reach for the ultimate deterrent.
DONALD Trump would "unleash the wrath of God" on Iran if reelected, but Tehran doesn't fear Kamala Harris, a senior expert on the regime has claimed. Jason Brodsky, policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran, told The U.S. Sun that a Trump victory in the election on November 5 would pose a "very significant challenge" to the Islamic Republic. Next week's election comes at a critical time in US-Iranian relations, with tensions between Washington and Tehran as high as they've ever been. On November 4, Iran will mark the 45th anniversary of the 1979 US Embassy hostage crisis, when armed Iranian college students who supported that year's Islamist revolution stormed the American embassy in Tehran, taking 53 US diplomats hostage for 444 days.
Exclusive: US Says It Is Looking Into Case Of American Jailed In Iran | Voice Of America
The Biden administration says it is looking into Iran's apparent recent detention of an Iranian American dual national who is the only U.S. citizen publicly reported to have been jailed by the Islamic republic since a rare U.S.-Iran prisoner swap in September 2023. Responding to a VOA inquiry last week the State Department said in a statement that it was "aware of reports that a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen has been arrested in Iran." […] Jason Brodsky, policy director of U.S. advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, told VOA that Valizadeh's arrest should be a warning to Iranians with dual nationalities that Tehran's assurances cannot be trusted. "There have been cases over the years in which Iranians abroad will get authorization from one governmental entity in Iran to enter, and then a competing agency will scoop up this person and take him hostage," Brodsky said.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Oil Climbs More Than $1 On Reports Of Iran Preparing Strike On Israel | Reuters
Oil prices extended gains on Friday, climbing more than $1 a barrel to pare weekly losses, after reports Iran was preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel from Iraq in the coming days. Brent crude futures were up $1.39, or 1.9%, at $74.20 a barrel by 0736 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.44, or 2.1%, to $70.70. U.S. news website Axios reported on Thursday that Israeli intelligence suggests that Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraq within days, citing two unidentified Israeli sources. "Any additional responses from Iran might remain restrained, similar to Israel's limited strike last weekend, hence primarily intended as a demonstration of strength rather than an invitation to open warfare," said SEB Research analyst Ole Hvalbye.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Locked In Conflict And Hammered By Sanctions, iran Wary Over U.S. Election Result | PBS News
America’s presidential election next week comes just after Iran marks the 45th anniversary of the 1979 U.S. Embassy hostage crisis — and for many, tensions between Tehran and Washington feel just as high as they did then. Iran remains locked in the Mideast wars roiling the region, with its allies — militant groups and fighters of its self-described “Axis of Resistance” — battered as Israel presses its war in the Gaza Strip targeting Hamas and its invasion of Lebanon amid devastating attacks against Hezbollah. At the same time, Iran still appears to be assessing damage from Israel’s strikes on the Islamic Republic last Saturday in response to two Iranian ballistic missile attacks.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Iranian Officials Threaten Retaliation For Israeli Strikes | The New York Times
Two top Iranian officials on Thursday said Iran planned to respond to Israel’s recent attacks, according to Iranian media, threatening to continue a cycle of retaliation between the countries. “Iran’s response to the Zionist aggression is definite,” said Gen. Ali Fadavi, the deputy commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, according to Iranian media. “We have never left an aggression unanswered in 40 years. We are capable of destroying all that the Zionists possess with one operation.” General Fadavi’s remarks, made to Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen television station, were the first statement from an Iranian official indicating that Iran intended to retaliate to Israel’s Oct. 26 strikes on its soil.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Russia To Strike 'Comprehensive' Treaty With Iran Including Defence Aspects | The National
Russia and Iran will soon sign a "comprehensive" treaty that will include closer defence ties, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Thursday. Military co-operation between the two countries is a source of deep concern to the West, as Russia wages war in Ukraine and Iran and Israel exchange missile and air strikes in the Middle East. "The treaty on a comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and Iran that is being prepared will become a serious factor in strengthening Russian-Iranian relations," Mr Lavrov told state television. He said the agreement was being prepared for signing "in the near future".
Rocket barrages from Lebanon into northern Israel killed four foreign workers and three Israelis on Thursday, Israeli medics said, the deadliest cross-border strikes in Israel since it invaded Lebanon. Israel kept up airstrikes it says targeted Hezbollah militants across Lebanon, where health authorities on Thursday reported 24 people killed. U.S. diplomats were in the region pushing for cease-fires in both Lebanon and Gaza, hoping to wind down the wars in the Middle East as the Biden administration enters its final months. Pressure has been building ahead of the U.S. election next week.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Saudi Foreign Minister Urges Iran To De-Escalate Regional Tensions | Iran International
Saudi Arabia’s top diplomat on Thursday said the kingdom's relationship with regional arch-rival Iran was on the mend and Riyadh hoped Tehran would take steps to defuse its simmering conflict with Israel. “What I hear from the Iranians is that they are indeed very much keyed into the fact that a continuing cycle of escalation is not in their interest,” Faisal bin Farhan al Saud said at a major investment conference in the Saudi capital.
IRAQ & IRAN
Iraq Trying To Reel In Iran-Backed Groups To Prevent Confrontation With Israel | The Times Of Israel
Nervously watching Israel’s wars with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iraq is working to avoid being drawn into the growing regional conflict as Iran-backed groups launch attacks on Israel from Iraqi soil, sources familiar with the matter say. Two decades after the US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, Iraq is experiencing relative stability with high revenue from oil sales funding a service-based agenda that has turned much of the country into a construction site.
AFGHANISTAN & IRAN
Explosions and gunfire in Iran killed at least two Afghans earlier this month, the Taliban authorities in Afghanistan said on Thursday. Iran has denied any shooting took place near Saravan, a town in the country’s restive southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchistan, which borders Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. A high-ranking Taliban committee has been investigating the incident for the past few weeks.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Germany To Close Iranian Consulates After Execution Of Dual National | Reuters
Germany will shut all three Iranian consulates on its territory in reaction to the execution of a German-Iranian national but will allow Tehran's embassy to remain open, the foreign ministry said on Thursday. "Our diplomatic relations are already more than at a low point," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said in New York. Iran summoned Germany's charge d'affaires in Tehran to protest against Germany's "unjust" decision to shut all Iranian consulates, state media reported on Thursday.