TOP STORIES
Iran is reeling from a cratering economy and stinging military setbacks across its sphere of influence in the Middle East. Its bad times are likely to get worse once President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House with his policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran. Facing difficulties at home and abroad, Iran last week began an unusual two-month-long military drill. It includes testing air defenses near a key nuclear facility and preparing for exercises in waterways vital to the global oil trade. The military flexing seems aimed at projecting strength, but doubts about its power are high after the past year’s setbacks. The December overthrow of Syrian President Bashar Assad, who Iran supported for years with money and troops, was a major blow to its self-described “Axis of Resistance” across the region.
The Risk Of Nuclear War Continues To Rise | The Hill
As the world became more dangerous in 2024, the use of its most dangerous weapons has become more likely. […] Iran may become a nuclear weapons state in response to Israel’s debilitating attacks on it and its proxies. This, in turn, has unleashed speculation as to whether Israel will preempt such a possibility by escalating the conflict with a direct attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran’s closer cooperation with Russia and China has also increased concerns about further cooperation on developing Iran’s nuclear capacity. Looming over the deterioration of the nuclear guardrails and contributing to lowering the nuclear threshold is China’s rapid expansion of its nuclear force in 2024.
Iran Says Swiss National Held On Espionage Charges Kills Himself In Prison | Associated Press
A Swiss national detained in Iran on espionage charges killed himself Thursday at a prison in rural Semnan province, state media reported. The report by the Iranian judiciary’s Mizan news agency did not identify the man, only saying the man had asked his cellmate to bring him food and then killed himself while he was alone. “Efforts to save him were unsuccessful,” Mizan quoted Mohammad Sadegh Akbari, the head of the province’s justice department, as saying. Semnan prison is some 180 kilometers (110 miles) east of Tehran, Iran’s capital. Pierre-Alain Eltschinger, a spokesman for the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, confirmed the death in an e-mail.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Nearly 19m dwt-worth of VLCCs are under US sanctions, with more likely on the way. ABG Sundal Collier analyst Petter Haugen said on Thursday that 5% of the global tanker fleet is on the formal US blacklist, with VLCCs leading the way at 7% of a fleet that Clarksons pegs at just over 269m dwt. But he pointed out that the US pressure group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) has 12% of the total VLCC fleet on its list of dark fleet ships. If those vessels are sanctioned, it would boost the total by 13.4m dwt to 32.3m dwt. Haugen said sanctions are good for tankers overall. “We reiterate our non-contrarian view that if a meaningful share of the sanctioned fleet is prohibited from transporting crude, it would likely have a highly meaningful positive impact on the crude tanker market,” he said.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Oil Jumps More Than 3% On Concern Over More Sanctions On Russia And Iran | Reuters
Oil prices surged on Friday and were on track for a third straight week of gains as traders focused on potential supply disruptions from more sanctions on Russia and Iran. Brent crude futures gained $2.66, or 3.5%, to $79.58 a barrel by 1154 GMT, reaching their highest in more than three months. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced $2.64, or 3.6%, to $76.56. Over the three weeks to Jan. 10, Brent has climbed 9% while WTI has jumped 10%.
"There are several drivers today. Longer term, the market is focused on the prospect for additional sanctions," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. "Short term, the weather is very cold across the U.S., driving up demand for fuels." Ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, expectations are mounting over potential supply disruptions from tighter sanctions against Iran and Russia while oil stockpiles remain low.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
A senior Israeli official says the government is working with allies in a renewed push to win the freedom of an Israeli-Russian researcher who is believed to have been kidnapped in Iraq nearly two years ago. […] No group has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping. But Israel believes she is being held by Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia that it says also has ties to the Iraqi government .The Israeli official said that after months of covert efforts, Israel believes the “changes in the region” have created an opportunity to work publicly for her release. During 15 months of war, Israel has struck Iran and its allies, and Iran’s regional influence has diminished. Iraq also appears to have pressured militia groups into halting their aerial attacks against Israel.
Iran Activist At Risk Of Execution After Sentence Upheld: Rights Groups | Barron’s
An activist from Iran's Kurdish minority is at risk of execution after her death sentence was upheld by the supreme court, rights groups said Thursday, adding she was being punished for her humanitarian work. Pakhshan Azizi, 40, had been sentenced to death in June after being convicted of "rebellion" following her arrest in August of 2023. She is being held in the women's wing of Tehran's Evin prison. Her lawyer Amir Raisian had filed an appeal to the supreme court, but "unfortunately, regardless of the numerous flaws in the case, the appeal was rejected, and the death sentence was confirmed". Quoted on Wednesday by the Tehran daily Shargh, Raisian said he would now submit a request for a retrial.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Yemen Reports Airstrikes In Areas North Of Houthi-Held Capital Sanaa | The Times Of Israel
Media outlets in Yemen report airstrikes in areas north of the Houthi-held capital Sanaa. The Al-Masirah TV station, which is owned by the Houthi regime, reports that 12 strikes were carried out by US and British forces in the Harf Sufyan District.
Tanker Hit By Houthi Rebels That Threatened A Red Sea Oil Spill Has Been Salvaged | Associated Press
An oil tanker that burned for weeks in the Red Sea after being attacked by Yemen’s Houthi rebels and threatening a massive oil spill has been salvaged, a security firm said Friday. The Sounion had been a disaster-in-waiting in the waterway, with 1 million barrels of crude oil aboard that had been struck and later sabotaged with explosives by the Iranian-backed Houthis as part of their campaign over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip. It took months for salvagers to tow the vessel away, extinguish the fires and offload the remaining crude oil. “Over three challenging weeks, the fires were extinguished, cargo tanks patched and pressurised with inert gas, and the vessel declared safe,” said the private security firm Ambrey, which helped lead the response alongside a European naval force and salvagers. “In early October, she was towed north to Suez for removal of her cargo, which has now been successfully completed.”
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Lebanon Picks US-Backed Aoun As President In Shift From Iran | Bloomberg
Lebanon lawmakers elected army commander Joseph Aoun as the country’s first president in more than two years, picking a US-backed candidate in a sign of Iran’s waning influence in the region. More than two-thirds of politicians voted for Aoun to begin a six-year term, clearing a hurdle that hadn’t been met in several recent failed attempts. His win ends a lengthy power vacuum and represents a pivot by Beirut toward the West, with Tehran-backed militant group Hezbollah weakened by last year’s bruising conflict with Israel. Lebanon’s dollar bonds, which the government defaulted on in 2020, extended their big rally of recent weeks, as investors welcomed the sign of stability in the crisis-hit nation.
Lebanon's Army Chief Elected President, Showing Weakened Hezbollah | Reuters
Lebanon's parliament elected army chief Joseph Aoun head of state on Thursday, filling the vacant presidency with a general who has U.S. support and showing the weakened sway of the Iran-backed Hezbollah group after its devastating war with Israel. In a speech to the chamber, Aoun, 60, vowed to work to ensure the state has the exclusive right to carry arms, drawing loud applause as lawmakers from Hezbollah -- which runs its own military forces -- sat still. […] It also indicated a revival of Saudi influence in a country where Riyadh's role was eclipsed by Iran and Hezbollah long ago. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar congratulated Lebanon, saying on X he hoped Aoun's election would contribute towards stability and good neighbourly relations.
IRGC Official Suggests Iran’s Strikes On Israel Lacked Strategic Impact | Iran International
A senior official in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard appears to have acknowledged that a series of direct attacks on Israel did not achieve their intended strategic goals. Hossein Taeb, an advisor to the IRGC Commander-in-Chief, made the comments on Wednesday during a speech discussing Iran's so-called operation True Promise 3, an attack promised by Iranian officials on Israel. "The operations of True Promise (1), 2, and 3 should be executed when they are strategically effective," Taeb said in comments carried by state media, referring to earlier Iranian attacks against its regional arch-enemy. Operation True Promise 1 was Iran's first ever direct military strike against Israel, conducted on April 13, 2024.
CHINA & IRAN
U.S. Ambassador Says China Is Aligned With ‘Agents Of Disorder’ | The New York Times
[…] With less than two weeks remaining before President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office, Mr. Burns is raising the administration’s concerns about Russia, as well as China’s alignment with Iran and North Korea, with Chinese ministers in a series of meetings this week and early next week. He leaves the country this coming Tuesday. More broadly, Mr. Burns said that China’s policies toward Russia, Iran and North Korea were inconsistent with Beijing’s desire to play a leading role in international initiatives of global order, like the World Trade Organization and the Paris agreement on climate change. […] He also said that China, which buys huge quantities of oil from Iran, should use its influence to insist that Iran stop the Tehran-backed Houthi militia from attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
MISCELLANEOUS
French Mayor Pulls Recycling Campaign Iran Deemed "Offensive" | RFI
The southern city of Beziers ran a campaign on buses calling for selective sorting of waste using portraits of Iran's Khamenei, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The posters -- splashed with the slogan "Don't forget to sort the trash" -- sparked a forceful condemnation from Iran's foreign ministry, which called the campaign "offensive", according to the official IRNA news agency. Beziers' far-right mayor, Robert Menard, insisted the flyers were created in jest but ordered the posters removed as a "precautionary measure". "We take this very seriously. I don't want there to be the slightest problem, for example, for our bus drivers," Menard told AFP. But he did defend the flyers, even saying their provocative message brought attention to the "real problem" of waste management.