TOP STORIES
Iran Dramatically Accelerating Uranium Enrichment To Near Bomb Grade, IAEA Says | Reuters
Iran is "dramatically" increasing the amount of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% of weapons grade, that it is able to produce, the watchdog's chief Rafael Grossi told Reuters in an interview. The move is certain to cause even greater alarm in Western capitals already arguing that there is no civil justification for Iran's enrichment to that level as no other country has done so without producing nuclear bombs, which Iran denies pursuing. Iran already has enough material enriched to up to 60%, its most highly enriched stock, for four nuclear weapons in principle if it enriched it further, according to an IAEA yardstick. It has enough for more at lower enrichment levels.
Iran Begins To Evacuate Military Officials And Personnel From Syria | The New York Times
Iran began to evacuate its military commanders and personnel from Syria on Friday, according to regional officials and three Iranian officials, in a sign of Iran’s inability to help keep President Bashar al-Assad in power as he faces a resurgent rebel offensive. Among those evacuated to neighboring Iraq and Lebanon were top commanders of Iran’s powerful Quds Forces, the external branch of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, the officials said. The move signaled a remarkable turn for Mr. al-Assad, whose government Iran has backed throughout Syria’s 13-year civil war, and for Iran, which has used Syria as a key route to supply weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran In Direct Contact With Groups In Syria's New Leadership, Iranian Official Says | Reuters
Iran has opened a direct line of communication with rebels in Syria's new leadership since its ally Bashar al-Assad was ousted, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday, in an attempt to "prevent a hostile trajectory" between the countries. The lightning advance of a militia alliance spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, marked one of the biggest turning points for the Middle East in generations. Assad's fall as president removed a bastion from which Iran and Russia exercised influence across the Arab world. Hours after Assad's fall, Iran said it expected relations with Damascus to continue based on the two countries' "far-sighted and wise approach" and called for the establishment of an inclusive government representing all segments of Syrian society. There is little doubt about Tehran's concern about how the change of power in Damascus will affect Iran's influence in Syria, the lynchpin of its regional clout.
UANI IN THE NEWS
This Is Iran’s Annus Horribilis | UANI Policy Director Jason Brodsky For The Spectator
Hezbollah’s capabilities and decapitated its leadership. Hamas has been left decimated in Gaza. The regime of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has collapsed. Intact for now are the Shiite militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. Such a situation is not only a product of geopolitical trends but also an indictment of the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force. This will necessitate a reorienting of Iranian strategy. 2024 has been Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s annus horribilis. Tehran began this year in a stronger regional position, with Israel seemingly entrapped in an endless conflict with Hamas in Gaza leading to its growing international isolation and Iran’s increasing integration. But then events took a turn for the worse for Khamenei beginning in January, when Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy political leader for Hamas and a key interlocutor with Tehran, was killed by Israel.
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria marks a historical and unexpected turn of events in what seems to be yet another chapter in the never-ending surprises produced in the Middle East. The fact the long, brutal tyranny of 54 years led by the Assad family was toppled in a 12-day attack by the rebels, five years after all analysis considered the high-intensity civil war in Syria to be won by Assad and his Russian and Iranian supporters, is no less than amazing. The rebel group that led the attack, and which by now is in control of the capital Damascus, is a radical Islamist group affiliated with Al-Qaeda. The group is called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, commonly referred to as HTS, which in Arabic means "the Levant Liberation Committee". The group was formally established in 2017 as an umbrella organization uniting several radical Islamist groups that operated separately against the Syrian regime since the beginning of the civil war in 2011.
The Threats Posed By The Global Shadow Fleet—And How To Stop It | Atlantic Council
On March 2, 2024, the crude-oil carrier Andromeda Star collided with the Bulgarian-flagged cargo ship Peace in the treacherous waters between Denmark and Sweden. More precisely, the two ships collided between the Danish coastal town of Amager and the small island of Saltholm, which is located in the Øresund (the Sound) between Sweden and Denmark.1 Because the tanker was en route to the Russian port of Primorsk to load Russian Urals crude, she wasn’t carrying the cargo of oil she would have been carrying had she been traveling in the other direction.2 Had the collision occurred then, the oil would likely have leaked, causing considerable environmental harm in Danish waters… The monitoring was conducted by companies in the shipping industry, by navies and coast guards, and by nongovernmental organizations like United Against a Nuclear Iran.
U.S. Senator Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) joined Tim Scott (R-South Carolina) and Senate Banking Republicans in raising concerns with the delayed implementation and enforcement of sanctions on Iran’s oil sector. In a letter to U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, Crapo, Scott and colleagues urged the Treasury Department to deploy all available sanctions enforcement tools to monitor and sanction illicit oil transactions involving Iran and to provide detailed information regarding the administration’s efforts to do so... In closing, the letter demands the following information from the Treasury Department no later than December 20, 2024: An assessment of all vessels listed by United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) in its Tanker Tracker and its Ghost Armada to determine whether they meet the criteria for sanctions under E.O. 13902 as entities operating in Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical sectors.
The Ayatollah's allies Vladimir Putin and Bashar al-Assad could be booted out of the country by quickly advancing militants Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. It's the latest blunder from the Iranians after pals Hamas and Hezbollah were both hammered by Israel following the October 7 terror attack. Ambassador Mark Wallace, CEO of United Against Nuclear Iran, said Iran is now fighting for its survival. The former US representative to the UN said Ayatollah Ali Khamenei only has a "tenuous" hold on power. Iran has used its proxy forces as a way to establish its dominance in the region by sowing conflict in countries and having militants seize land.
How Oct 7 Led To The Fall Of Syria – And The Retreat Of Iran | The Telegraph
They must be cursing the memory of Yahya Sinwar in Tehran’s corridors of power... Although fond of making a deal, particularly one he could represent as a swift foreign policy triumph, there are plenty of Iran hawks in his cabinet, said Daniel Roth, research director at United Against Nuclear Iran, an advocacy group headed by Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida. “Many of Trump’s cabinet picks are very vocal in their anti-regime outlook,” he said. “You have people like Marco Rubio [secretary of state designate] who has been on the record many times about the real dangers of Iran. So ultimately I think Trump is going to go pretty hard on Iran.”
Israel Issued Urgent Warning Over Hezbollah Ceasefire - 'It's Not 2006 Anymore' | Express
The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah fighters has tenuously held since it was signed on November 27, despite Israeli forces launching several drone and artillery strikes in Lebanon... Mark Wallace, who is also CEO of United Against Nuclear Iran, said Hezbollah had been “forced into” the uneasy ceasefire by military pressure from Israel but the Iran-backed militant group was now in a position to “rebuild and rearm”. “There have been multiple ceasefire violations by Hezbollah, which has forced Israel into implementing [it] by military force,” Mr Wallace told Express.co.uk
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
US Increasingly Worried That Iran Is Poised To Build Nukes, Intel Report Says | The Times Of Israel
Members of the United States intelligence community are increasingly worried that Iran is moving toward the production of nuclear weapons, according to a report from the Office of the United States Director of National Intelligence (DNI) that was issued on Thursday. First reported by The Wall Street Journal on Friday, the DNI document warned that “Iran now has enough fissile material to make more than a dozen nuclear weapons,” but has not yet decided to do so. “The Intelligence Community continues to assess that as of 26 September 2024, Iran is not building a nuclear weapon,” the report stated, but added that it has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce one, if it so chooses.”
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
US May Target Gasoline Exports To Iran Amid Energy Crisis | Iran International
The US may soon impose sanctions on gasoline exports to Iran, escalating the pressure on Tehran’s energy sector as it struggles with severe fuel shortages. Iran’s reliance on imported gasoline has intensified amid a domestic energy crisis marked by rolling blackouts, gas shortages, and an overburdened electricity grid. With the Islamic Republic facing growing economic strains, Washington may target the importation of refined petroleum products, further isolating Iran from the global energy market.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Students, Retired Teachers Protest In Tehran Over Unmet Promises | Iran International
Retired teachers and medical students staged protests across Tehran over the weekend, underscoring widespread frustration with the Iranian government over unfulfilled promises and mounting economic pressures. The protests, which ranged from demands for overdue payments and benefits to objections over steep tuition hikes, highlighted the growing discontent among various sectors of society. On Saturday, hundreds of retired teachers gathered outside Iran’s Parliament in Tehran to demand the payment of their long-delayed entitlements.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Trump's Middle East Envoy Warns Of Consequences If Gaza Hostages Not Released Soon | Reuters
Donald Trump's Middle East envoy warned on Monday during a visit to the region it would "not be a pretty day" if the hostages held in Gaza were not released before the U.S. President-elect's inauguration. Steve Witkoff, who will formally take up the position when Trump's administration starts, said he hoped and prayed there would be ceasefire in Gaza between Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel before Trump takes office on Jan. 20. "You heard what the president said, they better be released," he said, referring to Trump. "Listen to what the president has got to say. It's not a pretty day if they're not released," Witkoff added, in response to Reuters questions on the sidelines of a bitcoin conference in UAE capital Abu Dhabi.
Situation In Syria Creating New Weakness For Hezbollah, Iran, Says US Envoy Hochstein | Reuters
U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein said the situation in Syria, where rebels are pressing a rapid advance that is threatening President Bashar al-Assad's grip on power, was creating a new weakness for militant Lebanese group Hezbollah and for Iran. The U.S. envoy, who negotiated a U.S-brokered ceasefire agreement in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah that went into effect on Nov. 27, said he believed Hezbollah was not yet eliminated but it was rather weakened. Iran has been a backer of Assad in Syria's long civil war, sending allied forces including Hezbollah and Iraqi militias to bolster the Syrian military.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Fall Of Assad In Syria Deals Serious Blow To Iran’s ‘Axis Of Resistance’ | The Washington Post
The rapid fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, coming hard on devastating losses suffered by Hezbollah, has dealt a serious blow to Iran’s “axis of resistance,” a central pillar of Tehran’s foreign policy, forged over decades. Through Syria’s 13-year civil war, Iran devoted a great deal of blood and treasure to propping up the Assad regime, only to watch its investment fail in a matter of days as city after city fell to Syrian rebels. But Tehran hasn’t only lost a client; it has seen its ability to project power, key to its own security, upended. Hezbollah, the militant group whose power once rivaled that of regional armies, suffered a humiliating defeat to Israel last month and was counting on Iranian support to rebuild.
Israeli Airstrikes Hit Security Complex, Research Centre In Damascus, Sources Say | Reuters
Israel conducted three airstrikes in the Syrian capital on Sunday against a security complex and a government research centre which it has said in the past was used by Iran to develop missiles, two regional security sources told Reuters on Sunday. Sunday's strikes, on the day rebels overthrew the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, caused extensive damage to the main customs headquarters and buildings adjoining the military intelligence offices within the security complex, which is located in the Kafr Sousa district of Damascus, the sources said.
CONGRESS & IRAN
Democrats And Republicans In Congress Worried That Gabbard Might Leak To Assad Regime | NBC News
In the spring of 2018, congressional staffers were anxious ahead of a House Foreign Affairs Committee meeting. A Syrian defector who had risked his life to expose atrocities committed by the Assad regime was due to appear behind closed doors at a private briefing for lawmakers. No cameras would be present, but congressional aides worried about one committee member, Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who had repeatedly defended the Syrian regime and even met its leader, Bashar al-Assad, in an unannounced trip in 2017.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Iran Says Only Syrians Can Decide On Their Country's Fate | Reuters
Syria's fate is the sole responsibility of the Syrian people and should be pursued without foreign imposition or intervention, Iran's foreign ministry said on Sunday, after Tehran's ally Bashar al-Assad was toppled by rebels. Iran spent billions of dollars propping up Assad during the Syrian civil war that erupted in 2011 and deployed its Revolutionary Guards to Syria to keep its ally in power so as to maintain Tehran's "Axis of Resistance" to Israel and U.S. influence in the Middle East. Following Assad's fall from power, Iran's foreign ministry called for a national dialogue to form an inclusive government representing all segments of Syrian society.
In The Syrian Regime’s Hour Of Need, Its Patron Iran Makes An Exit | The New York Times
For decades, Iran has expended much blood and money in support of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, helping him survive a civil war that threatened his dynastic rule. Iran operated military bases, weapons warehouses and missile factories in Syria, which it used as a pipeline for arming its militant allies across the region. Now, just as Mr. al-Assad needs help to repel a rapid advance by rebel forces, Iran is heading for the exits. On Friday, the country started evacuating its military commanders and personnel, as well as some diplomatic staff, according to Iranian and regional officials. It is a remarkable turnabout: Iran not only appears to be abandoning Mr. al-Assad, its closest Arab ally, but also relinquishing everything it had built and fought to preserve for 40 years in Syria, its main foothold in the Arab world.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the fall of Bashar Assad's regime in Syria on Sunday and argued that it was a "direct result" of Israeli attacks on Iran and Hezbollah. Netanyahu made the remarks in a public address shortly after news broke that Assad had fled Damascus on Saturday night with his family. Islamist rebels took over the city on Sunday. Netanyahu cautioned that the fall of the Assad regime is nevertheless "fraught with significant dangers." "This is a historic day for the Middle East. The collapse of the Assad regime, the tyranny in Damascus, offers great opportunity but also is fraught with significant dangers. This collapse is the direct result of our forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad's main supporters. It set off a chain reaction of all those who want to free themselves from this tyranny and its oppression," Netanyahu said.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Iran And Qatar Forge Unlikely Bond Over Shared Interests | Iran International
The relationship between Qatar and the Islamic Republic of Iran is one driven by mutual interests over ideological alignment, helping both to fulfil regional and international objectives. Qatar is a Sunni-led monarchy, while the Islamic Republic of Iran is a Shiite theocracy. This marked difference, however, has not undermined their relationship. Why? Because it serves both sides immensely. For Qatar, this partnership balances its extensive Western ties with a regional power that opposes the United States. For Iran, it provides a diplomatic boost in international forums, helping circumvent its growing isolation.
AFGHANISTAN & IRAN
Over 900,000 Afghans Return To Afghanistan This Year, Says Taliban | Afghanistan International
The Taliban’s Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation has reported that more than 900,000 Afghans have returned to Afghanistan from Iran, Pakistan, and Turkiye during the first eight months of the current Solar Hijri year. The ministry noted that the majority of returnees entered the country from Iran. Abdul Mutalib Haqqani, spokesperson for the Taliban’s Ministry of Refugees, stated on Sunday that over this period, approximately 15,000 individuals returned from Türkiye, while more than 88,000 migrants returned from Pakistan. Meanwhile, over 790,000 Afghans reportedly returned from Iran.