Eye on Iran: Trump Expected to End Waiver of Sanctions on Iran, Endangering Nuclear Deal

TOP STORIES

Trump Expected to End Waiver of Sanctions on Iran, Endangering Nuclear Deal | Washington Post

President Trump is expected to announce Tuesday that he will not continue a waiver of sanctions against Iran, according to current and former U.S. and foreign officials… He is free to reimpose all U.S. sanctions, and even announce new ones. But he is expected to stop short of reneging on the deal altogether. ­Instead, he will address a portion of the wide range of sanctions that were waived when the deal was first implemented, while leaving in limbo other waivers that are due in July.

EU States to Stick to Iran Deal Irrespective of U.S. Decision: France | Reuters

France, Britain and Germany will keep to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran irrespective of the United States’ decision later this week because it is the best way to avoid nuclear proliferation, France’s foreign minister said on Monday.

It Looks Like Iran is Trying to Lock In Oil Revenue Before Any Trump Sanctions Start | CNBC

Iran's oil exports accelerated to a recent record in April, indicating Tehran is seeking to maximize revenue ahead of the U.S. President Donald Trump's upcoming decision on the 2015 nuclear deal and the possible re-imposition of sanctions.

NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM

 

Iran Resists U.S. Demands Before Trump’s Decision on Nuclear Pact | Wall Street Journal

 

Iran’s president said his country would fiercely resist efforts to contain its regional influence as President Donald Trump weighs withdrawing from the nuclear deal, a scenario that threatens to escalate the country’s destabilizing rivalry with Saudi Arabia.

Rouhani Suggests Europe Can Keep Iran Nuclear Deal Alive | Al Monitor

During a speech May 7, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani suggested that if the United States were to exit the comprehensive nuclear deal between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany, European countries could keep the deal alive.

 

Kremlin Says Any U.S. Withdrawal from Iran Deal May Have Negative Consequences | Reuters

 

The Kremlin said on Tuesday that the possible withdrawal of the United States from the Iran nuclear deal would have harmful consequences.

Iran Nuclear Deal: Has Europe Done Enough To Save It? | Deutsche Welle

The recent parade of EU leaders to Washington to convince US President Donald Trump to keep the Iran deal may have been in vain. Some analysts say they should have been flying to Tehran instead. Teri Schultz reports. French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister Theresa May have all done their best to convince US President Donald Trump that his beef with the Iran nuclear deal is misguided and that the agreement limiting Tehran's potential pursuit of nuclear weapons, while flawed, should be preserved, while other concerns are addressed.

The Nuclear Deal Makes America Complicit in Iranian Crimes | Reuel Marc Gerecht for the Atlantic

If Washington retains the nuclear agreement, even economic pushback against the regime for its barbarism in Syria is an illusion, since any serious coercion runs smack into the guiding principle of the JCPOA: sanctions relief in exchange for temporary nuclear restraint..

MISSILE PROGRAM

Analysis: Iran’s Missile Threat And Israel’s Message to Russia and Assad | Seth J. Frantzman for the Jerusalem Post

Iran is preparing a barrage of missiles to retaliate against Israel, according to recent reports. But Israel has a message of its own. By reporting Iran’s threats to the media, Israel is showing Iran’s hand and playing a high-stakes game to see which side will blink first.

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS

Deal or No Deal, Trump Should Punish Iran’s Aviation Sector | Emanuele Ottolenghi for the Hill

Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg announced last week the deferral until 2019 of the planned delivery of three Boeing 777’s to Iran Air, fueling speculation that Boeing’s $16.6 billion dollar deal with the Iranian national airline may be in jeopardy. Critics of the Boeing deal insist the company should go further and cancel the deal outright. Yet it is not and should not be Boeing’s responsibility to formulate U.S. policy vis-à-vis Iran. Rather, it is President Trump who should clarify that for as long as Tehran suborns its civil aviation sector to its reckless and criminal adventurism in the region, the full force of U.S. sanctions will stand in the way of its attempt to rejuvenate its fleet.

CONGRESS & IRAN

President Trump should nix the Iran nuclear deal | U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio for Fox News

President Donald Trump will decide Tuesday whether or not to quit the Iran nuclear deal. He should not hesitate to nix this flawed and dangerous agreement that is beyond fixing.

SANCTIONS

Iran Says New Sanctions Would Not Stifle its Oil Industry | Reuters

The Iranian oil industry will continue to develop even if the United States pulls out of the 2015 nuclear deal, and Tehran would see the accord as operational as long as it can sell oil, the Oil Ministry’s news service quoted senior officials as saying on Monday.

ECONOMIC NEWS

How Wary Wall Street Is Sizing Up Trump's Plan for Iran Decision | Bloomberg

President Donald Trump says he will announce his decision on Iran Tuesday at 2 p.m. Geopolitical jitters -- along with the start of the summer driving season and positive jobs data -- had helped push oil above $70 a barrel for the first time since November 2014. Stocks pared gains and oil futures dipped as investors weighed the forthcoming announcement. The U.K. and Israel are making their final pitches as Trump mulls an exit.

HUMAN RIGHTS

Iran Doesn't Hesitate to Murder Its Children — It just Uses a Loophole | Geoffrey Clarfield for the National Post (Canada)

On Jan. 30, 2018, a young woman, Mahboubeh Mofidi, was executed by hanging in Nowsharh prison in northern Iran. She was 20 years old. Allegedly, she had murdered her husband and thus was condemned to death according to the Islamic Penal Code of the Islamic Republic of Iran. She was not the only one.

IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS

The Death Spiral of the Islamic Republic | Sohrab Ahmari for Commentary

Today, the evidence is mounting that the Islamic Republic has entered a... death spiral.

HEZBOLLAH & LEBANON

The Secret to Hezbollah's Electoral Success | David Kenner for the Atlantic

Hezbollah’s yellow flags stretched for miles along the highway to Baalbek, a Lebanese city near the frontier with Syria. They hung from every light post, interspersed with images of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the party. In some, he smiled; in others, he wore a grave expression and saluted. The message to voters on the party’s banners was simple: We protect, and we build.

IRAQ & IRAN

As Iraq Prepares for Elections, Iran's Influence Looms Large | United States Institute of Peace

There is nowhere in the region where Iranian influence has played a more conspicuous role than in neighboring Iraq. While the international community is focused on the potential ramifications of a U.S. pullout from the deal, Iraq is preparing to hold parliamentary elections on May 12. USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed and Elie Abouaoun discuss Iran’s evolving role in Iraq and its objectives for Saturday’s elections with Iran Primer Managing Editor Garrett Nada.