TOP STORIES
Exclusive: Satellite Photos Show Iran Expanding Missile Production | Reuters
Recent satellite imagery shows major expansions at two key Iranian ballistic missile facilities that two American researchers assessed are for boosting missile production, a conclusion confirmed by three senior Iranian officials. The enlargement of the sites follows an October 2022 deal in which Iran agreed to provide missiles to Russia, which has been seeking them for its war against Ukraine. Tehran also supplies missiles to Yemen's Houthi rebels and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, both members of the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance against Israel, according to U.S. officials. Images taken by commercial satellite firm Planet Labs of the Modarres military base in March and the Khojir missile production complex in April show more than 30 new buildings at the two sites, both of which are located near Tehran. The images, reviewed by Reuters, show many of the structures are surrounded by large dirt berms. Such earthworks are associated with missile production and are designed to stop a blast in one building from detonating highly combustible materials in nearby structures, said Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.
Iran’s Pezeshkian Assures Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah Of Continued Support | Al Arabiya News
Iran’s support for Lebanon’s Hezbollah and other Tehran-backed militias in the region will “continue with strength,” Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian said in a letter to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, state media reported on Monday. Iran provides financial and military support to Hezbollah, a key member of the “axis of resistance” – an alliance of pro-Iran armed groups opposing Israel and the US. The alliance also includes Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and various militias in Syria and Iraq. Iran “has always supported the resistance of the region’s people against the illegitimate Zionist regime (Israel),” Pezeshkian wrote, according to Fars news agency. “Supporting the resistance is rooted in the fundamental policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran … and will continue with strength,” he added. “I am confident that the resistance movements in the region will prevent [Israel] from continuing its warmongering and criminal policies against the oppressed people of Palestine and other nations in the region,” said Pezeshkian, who last week won a presidential election held early following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in May.
Elections In Europe And Iran Show Authoritarian March May Have Slowed, Not Halted | Associated Press
At first glance, elections in France and Britain were a triumph for leftists and reformers over authoritarians and the right. Even Iran — where Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the final say on all matters of state — elected Masoud Pezeshkian, a lawmaker long associated with the reformist movement. In France, a leftist coalition beat the far right into third place in legislative elections. The U.K.'s center-left Labour Party swept back to power in a landslide after 14 years of Conservative rule. Iranian voters, offered a limited choice in a circumscribed presidential election, opted for the more moderate of two candidates to replace the late hard-liner Ebrahim Raisi. But with voters in many countries still divided and disillusioned against a backdrop of economic gloom, analysts say the march of the right may only have been slowed, not halted.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Masoud Pezeshkian’s victory in the Islamic Republic of Iran’s presidential contest should be treated with significant scepticism. The “elections” in Iran — or as many Iranians call them, “selections” — are not free or fair. The president’s power is extremely limited and beware of the hype promoting Pezeshkian’s ascendance. Pezeshkian is a career Islamic Republic loyalist. He has boasted of his role in promoting forced hijab in the early years after the 1979 Islamic Revolution and rose through the ranks of Iran’s medical system because of his adherence to its hardline ideological mores. While at times criticising the Iranian system’s response to a variety of crises — for example the murder of Mahsa Amini in 2022 — which have won him the misleading moniker of “reformist,” he has never defected or departed from Tehran’s party line: adherence to the supreme leader’s rule and the founding precepts of the Islamic Republic.
[…] Activists and anti-regime analysts argue that the election of Pezeshkian will not result in any meaningful changes to key policy or the strategic direction of the regime. "The presidency is merely a rubber stamp and the face of the regime abroad," according to a recent tweet from Kasra Aarabi, director of IRGC Research United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), a not-for-profit organisation that describes itself as having been "formed to combat the threats posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran". Aarabi says Pezeshkian wouldn't have become president without consent from Khamenei and the IRGC. He believes Iran's regime have endorsed a so-called reformist because of a chance of a Trump presidency in the United States, which is unlikely to ease its sanctions against Iran. "Khamenei and IRGC know Trump will revert to max pressure against the regime, but they also know Europe has high level of disdain for Trump," Aarabi argues. He believes Pezeshkian provides the best chance to cause a rupture in US-Europe policy towards Iran.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
How Likely Is A Meaningful Change In Iran's Economy Under The New Presidency? | The National
Any change in Iran’s economic fortunes is tied to how successful the country’s new reformist president-elect Masoud Pezeshkian will be in easing the impact of strangling western sanctions, before getting them eventually lifted, and how quickly he brings rampant inflation under control, analysts said. Mr Pezeshkian, 69, was elected as Iran’s President after defeating hardline candidate Saeed Jalili in Friday’s run-off vote, with his agenda expected to be a marked shift from that of his predecessor late Ebrahim Raisi, who was a cleric and a former member of the Iranian judiciary. Reviving the 2015 nuclear accord, which sought to curb Tehran's nuclear activity in return for sanctions relief and pursuing reforms to support economic growth in the country are the top priorities for the heart surgeon-turned-politician who is expected to be sworn in next month.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iranian Prisoners Challenge Execution Machine | Iran International
Political prisoners across nine Iranian prisons have joined the "No to Execution Tuesdays" campaign, condemning the death sentence of labor activist Sharifeh Mohammadi as "shameless and disgraceful." The movement calls for nationwide support to halt the "execution machine" of the Islamic Republic. On Tuesday, the prisoners will further their protest with a hunger strike against executions. Hundreds of prisoners have been executed this year. A United Front Against Repression The protesting prisoners, confined in Evin, Ghezel Hesar, Karaj Central, Khorramabad, Khoy, Naqadeh, Saqqez, Mashhad, and Tabriz prisons, issued a statement on Monday, marking the twenty-fourth week of their Tuesday hunger strikes. They warned of increasing executions in the coming weeks and months, following the recent presidential election. "The repressive apparatus of the Islamic Republic," the statement reads, "reduced executions to the maximum extent possible before the electoral show. However, it will now accelerate the issuance and execution of death sentences and will suppress the families of the victims more than before."
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
US Says Not Ready To Resume Nuclear Talks With Iran Under Pezeshkian | Iran International
The Biden administration is not ready to resume nuclear talks with Iran under the new president, the White House national security council spokesman said Monday. In his presidential campaign, Iran's president-elect Masoud Pezeshkian advocated engagement in constructive talks with Western powers to revive the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) and to lift the sanctions that he says have crippled the Iranian economy since the withdrawal of the US from the agreement in 2018. Asked whether Pezeshkian’s election will change the US negotiating position, the White House's John Kirby offered a blunt "no". “They’re still supporting terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. They’re still supporting the Houthis as the Houthis attack ships in the Red Sea. They’re still attacking shipping as well. And they’re still supplying drones and drone technology and drone expertise to the Russians so that the Russians can continue to kill innocent Ukrainians like they did over the weekend,” Kirby told a press conference. “So no, no.”
US Not Expecting Policy Change From Iran Under New President | AFP
The United States said Monday it did not expect policy changes from Iran after voters elected reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian, and downplayed chances to resume dialogue. "We have no expectation that this election will lead to a fundamental change in Iran's direction or its policies," State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters. Miller said supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was expected to call the shots in Iran, an adversary of the United States since the 1979 Islamic revolution. "Obviously, if the new president had the authority to make steps to curtail Iran's nuclear program, to stop funding terrorism, to stop destabilizing activities in the region, those would be steps that we would welcome," Miller said. "But needless to say, we don't have any expectation that that's what's likely to ensue." Asked if the United States was at least willing to reopen diplomacy with Iran after Pezeshkian's election, Miller said: "We have always said that diplomacy is the most effective way to achieve an effective, sustainable solution with regard to Iran's nuclear program." But at the White House, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, asked if the United States was ready to resume nuclear talks with Iran, said emphatically, "No."
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
A Reformist Heart Surgeon Confronts Iran’s Ultra-Conservatives | Bloomberg
How far the new reformist Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, can go in changing policy in the Islamic Republic will depend on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s ultimate authority. The cardiac surgeon enters office with the ruling clerics widely unpopular and in desperate need of respite from internal dissent. On the face of it Pezeshkian marks a sharp departure from ultraconservative predecessor Ebrahim Raisi, whose death in a helicopter crash triggered the snap election. He’s the first non-cleric to be elected president since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, with whom he shares an appeal to the middle classes but differs in that he’s not an ideologue. Pezeshkian promised the removal of sanctions, a revived nuclear deal with the West and an easier life for Iranians who feel stifled by soaring inflation and strict laws on attire, particularly for women who have been targeted by the security forces.
All You Need Know About When Iran’s New Government Begins | Iran International
With Masoud Pezeshkian announced as the winner of Iran’s snap election, which followed the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi, uncertainties remain about when he will assume office and form the new government. The inauguration of new presidents in the Islamic Republic typically occurs in early August, although no specific date is set. However, since there is currently no incumbent in office, there is some debate about when the new administration will officially begin. The only timeframe that applies in case of the death of a president is 50 days until a new one should be elected. Raisi died in a helicopter crash on May 19, and the election was held on June 28 and the runoff on July 5. There are several steps until the president-elect can be called Iran’s President. After the election, the Guardian Council should confirm the validity of the results, ensuring that the election process followed legal precepts. Then, it issues a certificate of appointment for the president-elect. This document should be signed by the members of the Council and then sent to the Supreme Leader, who would announce the date for Tanfiz, when he officially endorses the election results and ratifies the new president.
Can Iran's New President Challenge Country's Powerful Hard-Liners? | Al Monitor
Once a low-profile lawmaker, Reformist Masoud Pezeshkian is now Iran's new president following his victory in a runoff vote on Friday, where he beat his ultraconservative rival Saeed Jalili in a lengthy race defined by factional bitterness. The election was held following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash alongside other Iranian officials on May 19. The official results saw Pezeshkian win 16.3 million of the 30.5 million votes, leaving Jalili behind with 13.5 million votes. The voter turnout stood at 49.8%, which was higher than the turnout during the first round on June 28, which registered the lowest ever voter participation in Iran's history after boycotts by some 60% of the electorate, whose apathy was explained by discontent with an array of economic maladies and human rights grievances. With the poorest ever support from eligible voters in any Iranian presidential election — only 26% — Pezeshkian is already grappling with the question of legitimacy, which will be unsurprisingly thrown at him by hard-line rivals during his tenure.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Singapore Air, Scoot Restart Flights Over Iran Airspace| Bloomberg
Singapore Airlines Ltd. and its low-cost unit Scoot have resumed flying over Iran after a two-month suspension triggered by the Middle Eastern nation’s attacks on Israel. Iran’s airspace is frequently utilized by airlines traveling between Europe and India or Southeast Asia. The April attacks on Israel complicated flights in one of the most densely traversed regions of the world, forcing airlines to choose lengthy detours. The Singapore Airline group regularly reviews flight paths based on factors including weather conditions, safety and security considerations, international and regional advisories, independent external security consultations and regulatory restrictions, a spokesperson said in an email confirming flights through Iran airspace had resumed from June 27. Flightradar24 data shows other airlines including Lufthansa, Eva Airways Corp., Emirates, Turkish Airways, China Airlines and Vietnam Airlines also flying over Iranian airspace as of July 9. KLM appears to have restarted flying over Iranian airspace on a limited basis for flights to Singapore, Flightradar24 data showed.