TOP STORIES
Europeans Tell UN Ready To 'Snap Back' Iran Sanctions If Needed | Reuters
Britain, France and Germany have told the United Nations Security Council that they are ready - if necessary - to trigger a so-called "snap back" of all international sanctions on Iran to prevent the country from acquiring a nuclear weapon. They will lose the ability to take such action on Oct. 18 next year when a 2015 U.N. resolution expires. The resolution enshrines Iran's deal with Britain, Germany, France, the United States, Russia and China that lifted sanctions on Tehran in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear program.
Israel Says Iran Has Itself To Blame For Assad’s Fall In Syria | Barron’s
Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz rebuffed on Wednesday Iranian accusation of a US-Israeli "plot" to oust Syria's Bashar al-Assad, saying Tehran has itself to blame for the fall of its ally. Katz, on a tour of the Jordanian border with military commanders, accused arch rival Iran of trying to establish an "eastern front" against Israel in the neighbouring kingdom, and vowed to prevent it. Earlier on Wednesday, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Assad's ouster this week by Islamist-led rebels "is the product of a joint US-Israeli plot", also blaming another unnamed "neighbouring state of Syria". Katz, according to a statement from his office, said that Khamenei "should blame himself" and stop financing armed groups "in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza to build the octopus arms he leads in an attempt to defeat the State of Israel".
President-elect Donald Trump is now considering tapping Richard Grenell, his former intelligence chief, to be a special envoy for Iran, according to two people familiar with the transition plans. "He's definitely in the running," said a person familiar with transition deliberations, who asked not to be identified. No final decisions on either personnel or strategy on Iran have been made official yet by Trump, including whether to slap fresh sanctions on the country, pursue diplomacy or both in order to halt their nuclear program. Neither Trump's team nor Grenell responded to requests for comment. Trump's plans for the role have not previously been reported.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Why Is Israel Attacking Syria? | The Telegraph
Israel has launched more than 350 air and naval strikes against Bashar al-Assad’s military since he was toppled on Sunday, destroying about 80 per cent of Syria’s military capabilities... Dror Doron, a senior adviser at United Against Nuclear Iran and a former Israeli government senior analyst, told The Telegraph that Israel was implementing “lessons” from the collapse of Libya. He said this included preventing heavy arms from falling into the hands of groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which he described as “extremely unpredictable”.
Commentary: What Assad Regime Collapse In Syria Means For Russia And Iran | CNA
No doubt policymakers in Tehran and Moscow are asking who lost Syria. In a tectonic rewrite of the Middle East’s geopolitical map, Bashar al-Assad was ousted on Sunday (Dec 8) after 24 years as president, leaving his principal backers struggling to limit their losses... Kasra Aarabi, a Washington-based anti-Iranian activist, quoted a younger IRGC member as saying: “We zealous youth will not forget the cowardice of the decision-makers.”
US Senators Tell Treasury To Ratchet Up Iran Sanctions | Lloyd’s List
THE US has blocked a whopping 9m dwt of Iran-trading tankers since October, the fastest pace since the reimposition of Iran oil sanctions under the Trump administration in 2018… When New York-based advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran started tracking Iran-trading tankers in November 2020, it estimated about 70 vessels were active in the trade. Four years later, its “Ghost Armada” list has swelled to over 470 tankers and gas carriers. The senators requested that the Treasury Department submit an assessment of “all vessels listed by UANI in its Tanker Tracker and its Ghost Armada to determine whether they meet the criteria for sanctions”. Iranian oil kept flowing strongly in November. Preliminary figures from UANI show Tehran exported almost 1.6m barrels per day last month, about its average pace for the year to date.
Iran Blames Israel, US For Assad’s Fall In Syria | i24 News
UANI Policy Director Jason Brodsky joins Natasha to discuss Iran blaming Israel and the US for the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria – and how significant of a blow Israel has landed on the Iranian axis.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Oil Holds Gain As US Signals Further Sanctions Against Russia | Bloomberg
Oil held an advance as the US indicated that a softer market may allow for further sanctions on Russia’s energy sector. West Texas Intermediate traded above $70 a barrel, after rising 2.5% on Wednesday, while Brent closed near $73. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that relatively low prices might allow further action against Russia’s ability to raise war revenue from its energy sector. The Biden administration is weighing new, harsher sanctions, according to people familiar with the matter. Oil has traded within a tight range in the past two months as traders weigh geopolitical shocks against waning global demand and expectations of a global glut. It found some support from wider markets on Wednesday, after benign US inflation data supported expectations for an interest rate cut in the largest oil consumer this month.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Trump’s National Security Pick Vows Return To Maximum Pressure On Iran | Bloomberg
Donald Trump’s pick for national security adviser vowed a return to the maximum pressure campaign that defined Iran policy in the president-elect’s first term, even as leaders in Tehran signal they want to reduce tension. “You’re going to see a huge shift on Iran,” after Trump takes office Jan. 20, Mike Waltz said in a Fox News interview Wednesday. “We have to constrain their cash. We have to constrain their oil. We have to go back to maximum pressure, number one, which was working under the first Trump administration.”
Judge Orders CIA Analyst Accused Of Israel-Iran Leak Held Pending Trial | Associated Press
A CIA analyst charged with leaking top secret details ahead of a planned Israeli attack on Iran earlier this year will remain jailed pending trial, a judge ordered Wednesday. The ruling by U.S. District Judge Patricia Tolliver Giles overrules a magistrate who said last week that Asif Rahman, 34, of Vienna, Virginia, could be free on restrictions while he awaits trial on charges of disclosing national defense information. The fight over Rahman’s detention revealed additional details about the government’s investigation of the leak and the analyst who allegedly disclosed the classified documents in October on the Telegram messaging app.
Biden Pushes New Russia, Iran, Korea, China Effort Before Trump Term | Reuters
President Joe Biden is pushing U.S. national security agencies ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration to devise new strategies to tackle the risky, deepening ties among Russia, Iran, North Korea and China, according to U.S. officials. In exchange for Iran's help with the Russian war effort in Ukraine, Moscow is giving its ally fighter aircraft, missile defense and space technology, Biden concluded in a national security memorandum issued on Tuesday. Russian President Vladimir Putin is giving North Korea fuel, money and technology, and is recognizing it as a de facto nuclear state. Russia is conducting joint patrols with China in the Arctic, the administration said.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Pentagon Denies Claim Of Iranian Drone 'Mothership' Off East Coast | Iran International
The US Department of Defense on Wednesday dismissed a Republican lawmaker's claim that an Iranian "mothership" had been stationed off the US East Coast, launching drones over New Jersey military sites. "There is not any truth to that. There is no Iranian ship off the coast of the United States and there’s no so-called mothership launching drones towards the United States," Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters on Wednesday. In an interview with Fox News earlier in the day, New Jersey Congressman Jeff Van Drew cited "very high, qualified, and responsible sources" saying "Iran launched a mothership probably about a month ago that contained these drones."
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Pollution Shuts Schools In Iran Again As Air Quality Crisis Deteriorates | Iran International
Air pollution has forced the closure of schools and universities in several cities across Iran, signaling that an air quality crisis dogging the country's economy and public health system is worsening. Government officials announced that the closures affecting both public and private institutions will continue through Thursday in several major cities including Tehran, Isfahan and Ahvaz. The capital Tehran has seen its air quality deteriorate to the point where clean air days accounted for just 15% of the annual total over the past eight years. Nationwide, air pollution contributes to 25,000 deaths each year, according to official statistics.
CONGRESS & IRAN
Renewed US Sanctions Waiver For Iran Stokes Republican Ire | Iran International
decision to renew a sanctions waiver for Iran in the waning days of the Joe Biden administration has raised hackles among Republicans who argue the outgoing president has consistently allowed Tehran to replenish its coffers. Totaling $10 billion, the funds are Iraqi payments for electricity provided by neighboring Iran.The move was made two days after the November presidential election, the state department confirmed last week, riling Biden's critics. “The House voted to eliminate these waiver authorities - twice. But the Biden administration is still waiving the sanctions, putting more money in the Iranian regime’s pockets to fund its terrorist proxies and nuclear weapons program," Republican Michael McCaul said on X. "The US should not be subsidizing Iran’s malign activities.”
House Approves Mammoth Annual Defense Policy Bill | The Hill
The House passed the annual defense policy bill Wednesday, sending the mammoth measure to the Senate for consideration ahead of Congress’s end-of-month deadline. The legislation — known as the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) — cleared the chamber in a bipartisan 281-140 vote, with 200 Republicans and 81 Democrats joining forces to push it over the finish line. Senate GOP Whip John Thune (S.D.) said he expects the package to hit the floor early next week. Congressional leaders unveiled the sprawling $883.7 billion package over the weekend, which includes a 14.5 percent pay raise for junior enlisted service members and a 4.5 increase for all other members.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Iran-Israel Friction Points To ‘Dangerous New Normal’ | Semafor'
Regional friction since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack has normalized military confrontation between Israel and Iran, creating a “profoundly unstable equilibrium,” a prominent analyst warned in Foreign Affairs. Tit-for-tat strikes between the two countries in recent months have lowered the threshold for direct conflict. Preventing a weakened Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon will be a key challenge for US President-elect Donald Trump, Suzanne Maloney, the director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution, wrote. However, Trump’s signature muscular approach — combined with a diplomatic offensive in the Gulf — could make all the difference in the Middle East’s trajectory, she argued.’
Iran’s Supreme Leader Accuses U.S. And Israel Of Orchestrating Assad Ouster | The Washington Post
In his first address since the toppling of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Iran’s supreme leader blasted the United States and Israel, accusing them of orchestrating the overthrow of one of Tehran’s key allies. “The main plotter, the main planner, the main agent, the main command room is in the United States and in the Zionist regime,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday to a crowd of hundreds packed into a Tehran hall to hear his address. His remarks, while steeped in the Islamic Republic’s rhetorical tradition of condemnations of Israel and its Western allies, verged at moments into rare confluence with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s characterizations of Assad’s fall. In an address earlier this week, Netanyahu said the collapse of the Assad regime was “a direct result of the blows” Israeli forces “have dealt to Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.”
TURKEY & IRAN
Turkey Recalibrates Its Syria Strategy Amid Assad’s Fall | The Jerusalem Post
The past year saw faint signs of a thaw between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, with indirect talks and back-channel diplomacy suggesting a tentative effort to address mutual security concerns, particularly regarding Kurdish forces in northern Syria. But these attempts, which did not result in a significant shift in Turkey’s Syria policy, are no longer immediately relevant following the recent fall of the Assad regime. After years of a delicate balancing act between its membership in anti-Assadist NATO and its alliances with Assad-aligned Iran and Russia, Turkey must now figure out how to develop its Syria policy amid a quickly changing reality.
MISCELLANEOUS
Once A Pro-Iran Bastion, Damascus Shrine District Now In Rebel Hands | France 24
By Wednesday, the few visitors in the area cast worried glances at the new guards of the Sayyida Zeinab shrine in the suburb of the same name, long known as a stronghold of pro-Iran fighters including Lebanon's armed group Hezbollah. "On Saturday night, the Hezbollah fighters began to leave," said Walid Haji, 45, an armed rebel posted to a checkpoint previously held by the Lebanese group. Hezbollah fighters had been stationed across a vast perimeter of the shrine, and their homes were often targeted by Israel as it engaged in fierce fighting with the group on its home soil in Lebanon. Residents said Iranians had reduced their presence in the region over the last three years.