TOP STORIES
UK, Egypt Issue Alerts For Iran, Lebanon Airspace As Risks Of Military Conflict Rise | Reuters
Britain and Egypt asked their airlines on Wednesday to avoid Iranian and Lebanese airspace amid growing fears of a possible broader conflict in the region after the killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah. Britain's advisory to its airlines to avoid Lebanon's airspace came hours after Egypt instructed all of its airlines to avoid Iran's airspace for three hours in the early morning on Thursday. Many airlines globally are revising their schedules to avoid Iranian and Lebanese airspace while also calling off flights to Israel and Lebanon. Flights through conflict zones became a prominent industry safety issue a decade ago after Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down over Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board.
Arab States Urge Iran To Show Restraint In Conflict With Israel | The New York Times
Several Arab countries are encouraging Iran to exercise restraint in responding to the assassination of Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran last week, as fears of an unpredictable regional war expand. The diplomatic blitz, led by countries allied with the United States, came as the Biden administration was trying to lower tensions in the Middle East and renew efforts to achieve a cease-fire in Gaza. But the diplomacy also reflected concerns among some Arab countries of being dragged into a major conflict that could destabilize their economies and undermine their security. In the past week, Foreign Minister Ayman al-Safadi of Jordan has twice met with senior Iranian officials, including the newly elected Iranian president, in a rare visit to Tehran.
Hezbollah Poised To Strike Israel Independent Of Iran, Sources Say | CNN
Hezbollah looks increasingly like it may strike Israel independent of whatever Iran may intend to do, two sources familiar with the intelligence told CNN. The Lebanon-based militant group is moving faster than Iran in its planning and is looking to strike Israel in the coming days, one of the sources said. Iran, meanwhile, appears to still be working out how it plans to respond, multiple officials have told CNN. One US military official told CNN that Iran had made some, but not all, of the preparations that the US would expect to see in advance of a major attack on Israel. But given Lebanon’s proximity to Israel as its direct neighbor to the north, Hezbollah could act with little to no notice, the second source familiar with the intelligence said — which is not true of Iran.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Egypt Warns Airlines Against Flying Over Iran’s Airspace In ‘Unusual’ Notice | Iran International
As the region braces for Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel, experts specializing in Iran are not seeing a clear picture into the definite meaning behind Egypt instructing all its airlines to avoid Iranian airspace for a specific amount of time on a specific day... Jason Brodsky, the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran, said the specific time and date of the NOTAM doesn't necessarily indicate a potential launch of strikes. He said in past operations, the Islamic Republic has launched missiles and drones from western Iran. "I thought it was a very specific window of time, but it could mean a lot of different things. It could mean a military drill. It could mean preparations for an attack. There are a lot of different ways to interpret it, so it's hard to know," said Brodsky.
Hamas Chooses Yahya Sinwar as Haniyeh Successor | CNBC's Street Signs
There will be a response to the killing of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh, and expect a push towards nuclear weaponization from Iran, Kasra Aarabi of United Against Nuclear Iran tells CNBC’s Dan Murphy.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Travelers Scramble As Airlines Cut Flights Amid Fear Of Iran-Israel War | Al-Monitor
Germany’s national airline, Lufthansa, said Wednesday that it would extend its suspension on flying through Iranian and Iraqi air space until Aug. 13, amid an expected attack by Iran and its proxy forces against Israel in retaliation for the assassinations of Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. In a statement, the airline said it extended a suspension of services to Tel Aviv, Tehran, Beirut, Amman and Erbil. Lufthansa previously suspended flights to Tel Aviv on Aug. 1 through Aug. 8.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran Executes 29 Day After Protester's Hanging: Rights Group | Al-Monitor
Iran on Wednesday hanged at least 29 convicts in a single day, including 26 in a group execution in one prison, a rights group said, a day after facing international condemnation for executing a man in connection with 2022 protests. Norway-based Iran Human Rights said 26 men were executed in Ghezelhesar Prison in Karaj outside Tehran, while three other men were executed in Karaj's city prison. Those executed, who included two Afghan nationals, had been convicted of murder, drug-related and rape charges. Other rights groups including US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) and Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI) also confirmed the execution of at least two dozen people in Karaj. Human rights groups have repeatedly accused Iran, which they say executes more people annually than any nation other than China, of making use of the death penalty on all charges to instill fear in society in the wake of the 2022 protests.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Cost Rising For US As It Fights Off Houthi Drones | Politico
President Joe Biden says the U.S. isn’t at war anywhere in the world. But one giant asterisk to that claim is what’s been happening for nearly a year in the skies over the Red Sea. U.S. forces have launched roughly 800 missiles and seven rounds of air strikes against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels that have controlled Yemen since November in what has become the most sustained military campaign by American forces since the anti-ISIS air war in Iraq and Syria that reached its height in 2016-2019. The battle in the Red Sea has been pushed into the background with the world’s attention fixed on the U.S. presidential election and higher-profile conflicts such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s war in Gaza. But an expected Iranian attack on Israel in the coming days will almost certainly rely heavily on proxies in Lebanon and Yemen, putting the U.S. ships in the region in the middle of the fight.
Iran-Linked Plotter Who May Have Targeted Donald Trump Arrested, Charged In New York | USA Today
A Pakistani national with ties to Iran was charged with murder-for-hire as part of plot to assassinate a U.S. politician or government official, potentially in response to the Trump administration's 2020 killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, according to a criminal complaint unsealed Tuesday. Asif Merchant, 46, arrived in the U.S. around April and contacted a person he believed could help him carry out the scheme, the Department of Justice alleged. However, that person told law enforcement about Merchant's plans and became a confidential source. The charges, filed in a Brooklyn, New York federal courthouse in July, were revealed weeks after an attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump at a Butler, Pennsylvania political rally.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Iran Says Cease-Fire In Gaza ‘Priority’ As US Sees Deal ‘Closer Than Ever’ | Al-Monitor
Iran said on Wednesday that reaching a cease-fire and securing an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza are top priorities for Tehran even as it seeks retaliation for the killing of Hamas' political leader Ismail Haniyeh. “We have pursued two priorities simultaneously: first, establishing a durable cease-fire in Gaza and the withdrawal of the occupiers [Israeli military] from this territory; second, punishing the aggressor for the assassination of Martyr Haniyeh,” Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations said in a statement late on Wednesday. The statement comes as Washington intensifies its efforts to reach a cease-fire that could avert Iranian retaliation against Israel and a potential regional war. “We are as close as we think we have ever been” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on Wednesday regarding a deal that would see the release of Hamas-held hostages and a cease-fire in Gaza. “There is a good proposal before both sides and they need to both accept that proposal so we can get this in place.” On Tuesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the negotiations are in their "final stage."
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
As Iran Braces for War, Its Citizens Are Kept in the Dark | New York Times
All government agencies and offices were closed Wednesday in Tehran, and in 13 provinces, including some along the western and eastern borders, hours for government offices were limited to 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. Iran also issued a notice to civilian aviation, warning that “gunfire will take place” for several hours on Wednesday night and into Thursday over parts of the country. As Iran prepares to follow through on its vow to “severely punish” Israel over the assassination of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week, it is raising war jitters among the public. Yet there were few, if any, signs on the streets of Tehran and other cities that a conflict may be looming.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Russia Risks Reputation Of Its Weapons Systems With Iran Air Defense Delivery | Forbes
Russia has reportedly begun delivering radars and air defense equipment to the Islamic Republic of Iran amidst Tehran’s tense standoff with Israel. The move could potentially risk exposing additional vulnerabilities and weaknesses in advanced Russian systems, especially since Israel has already demonstrated its capability to target Russian air defenses in Iran. Iranian officials requested the equipment and Russia has already begun delivery, The New York Times reported on Monday. The Times report cited two anonymous Iranian officials, one of whom is a member of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps paramilitary.
Israel Told U.S. Hezbollah Will Pay "Disproportionate Price" If Attack Hits Civilians | Axios
Israel told the U.S. that if Hezbollah harms Israeli civilians as part of its retaliation for the assassination of its top military commander, the Israel Defense Force's response would be disproportionate, two Israeli officials said. Israeli officials say they don't want an all-out war with Hezbollah in Lebanon and are now trying to draw a clear line to define what would compel Israel to escalate the conflict and risk a war. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech on Tuesday that the organization is going to retaliate for the assassination of Fuad Shukr by Israel in Beirut last week.
Pro-Government Fighters Attack Areas Of US-Backed Fighters In East Syria. 2 Killed | ABC
Violence surged in opposition-held areas of Syria on Wednesday as government-backed fighters killed at least two people in rare violence in the east, while a truck bomb exploded in the northern city of Azaz, killing nine people, the main U.S.-backed force in the war-torn country and an opposition war monitor said. Fighters backed by the Syrian government and Iran attacked areas controlled by U.S.-backed fighters in the country's east, killing at least two people and wounding others, the main U.S.-backed force in the war-torn country said Wednesday. To the west, a truck bomb exploded Wednesday evening in the northern city of Azaz, which is controlled by Turkey-backed opposition fighters, killing nine people and wounding 11, the opposition's Syrian Civil Defense, also known as the White Helmets, said. No one immediately claimed responsibility for the attack in Azaz, which has witnessed such bombings in the past. Turkey has launched three major cross-border operations in Syria since 2016 and controls some Syrian territory in the north.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Saudi Arabia Says Hamas Leader's Killing Was 'Blatant Violation' Of Iran's Sovereignty | Reuters
Saudi Arabia said on Wednesday the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran was a "blatant violation" of Iran's sovereignty. The comment by the Saudi deputy foreign minister during an extraordinary meeting of members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) was the first by the kingdom, the region's major power alongside Iran, since the killing of the Palestinian Islamist leader in the Iranian capital on July 31. The minister, Waleed Al-Khuraiji, added that Saudi Arabia rejects "any violation of the sovereignty of states or interference in the internal affairs of any country".