TOP STORIES
Oct. 7 And The Iranian Nuclear Threat | The Wall Street Journal
I shared a table with Jake Sullivan at a June dinner in Paris. The White House national security adviser asked if I thought Iran would go nuclear. I said that if Israel and the U.S. failed to keep to their multiple public pronouncements that all means necessary would be employed to prevent it from happening, the Iranians would proceed. “It’s not what I think but what you already know that really answers the question,” I told him. Almost a year earlier, I attended another, more intimate evening with his French counterpart, Emmanuel Bonne, at the home of a Saudi prince. I warned my host that regional war with Iran was coming due to the regime’s miscalculation in their use of proxies to encircle Israel.
Iran Warns Israel Against Any Attack, Threatens Stronger Retaliation | Reuters
Iran's foreign minister warned Israel against launching an attack, saying on Tuesday any strike on Iranian infrastructure would be met with a stronger retaliation. Iran attacked Israel last week with a salvo of missiles. Israel has vowed to retaliate. "We recommend the Zionist regime (Israel) not to test the resolution of the Islamic Republic. If any attack against our country takes place, our response will be more powerful," Araqchi said in a televised speech. Any attack on Iran's infrastructure will be met with a stronger retaliation, and "our enemies know what kind of targets inside the Zionist Regime (Israel) are in our reach," Araqchi added. Iran's oil minister landed on Kharg Island, home to the country's main export terminal, and held talks with a naval commander on Sunday, the oil ministry's news website Shana reported, amid concern Israel could attack energy facilities.
Israeli military strikes are targeting Iran’s armed allies across a nearly 2,000-mile stretch of the Middle East and threatening Iran itself. The efforts raise the possibility of an end to two decades of Iranian ascendancy in the region, to which the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq inadvertently gave rise. In Washington, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and Arab capitals, opponents and supporters of Israel’s offensive are offering clashing ideas about what the U.S. should do next, as its ally racks up tactical successes against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen and presses its yearlong campaign to crush Hamas in Gaza. Israel should get all the support it needs from the United States until Iran’s government “follows other dictatorships of the past into the dustbin of history,” said Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at Washington’s conservative-leaning Foundation for the Defense of Democracies — calls echoed by some Israeli political figures.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Interview With UANI CEO Mark D. Wallace | BBC News
“The malign actor is Iran. Military targets inside Iran, including nuclear facilities, maintained and operated by the IRGC, are legitimate targets of Israel, the U.S. and the West.” UANI CEO and Former Ambassador tells BBC News.
National Security Experts: Harris And Trump Both Fail To Inspire Confidence | The Dispatch
Today’s entry features experts in the national security and foreign policy realm. The world is in a precarious position, with major wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East. The United States’ adversaries—Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea—are growing closer to one another. That instability will present a daunting challenge to whichever candidate wins the election in November. Is either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump up to the challenge? […] “My primary concern is the absence of any serious bipartisan discussion or strategy to counter Iran. After the collapse of the JCPOA revival negotiations in 2022, there has been a policy drift on Iran—both on nuclear and non-nuclear matters. The Biden administration and Congress had an opportunity over the last three years to establish a bipartisan structure—akin to the committees empaneled for China policy—to develop a consensus on the acceptable contours of an Iran strategy. Despite the significant threats the Islamic Republic poses to the interests of the United States and its allies, this unfortunately has not been a priority…” Jason Brodsky, policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran.
Iranian tankers have begun to "disappear" from an oil terminal on Kharg Island , CNBC reported on October 4, citing data from satellite imagery analysis. The infrastructure on Kharg handles 90 percent of Iran's oil exports . Tehran fears an Israeli attack on key infrastructure for its economy. Previously, the terminal had been working very intensively. Oil is Iran's main source of income. Before 2018, the country exported two million barrels a day. That same year, the Trump administration imposed economic sanctions on Tehran for developing a nuclear program and efforts to acquire nuclear weapons. […] Reuters cites the findings of Claire Jungman of the organization United Against Nuclear Iran. They show that in June 2024, a tanker entered the port of Sohar in Oman , receiving oil from another ship . The second vessel, in turn, received oil at the beginning of the year on the Iranian island of Kharg. The Iranians did exactly the same operation with Bangladesh , where the tanker Golden Eagle entered the port of Chittagong in early 2024.
The Ghost Fleet Of Iranian Tankers And The Danger For Greece | Protagon
An oil spill occurred a few days ago in the Persian Gulf, when the crew of an old tanker transferred its cargo of oil to another, equally aged one. These are the 'Fortune Galaxy', which is the target of sanctions for smuggling Iranian oil and violating Maritime Law - and the 'Serano II'. […] This mission has been undertaken by Iran's so-called "dark fleet". Daniel Roth, director of research at the NGO United Against Nuclear Iran, said Tehran is "almost entirely dependent" on a "ghost armada" of 400 tankers registered outside the country. The Fortune Galaxy, for example, was listed in 2022 by the NGO as a tanker used by the Iranian regime to transport oil despite sanctions. The ship itself, as well as the company that operates it, are on the US Treasury Department's sanctions list for their ties to a financier of Iran's Revolutionary Guards. According to Roth, “if Iran didn't have this fleet, the regime would have lost over $100 billion over the last four years. This money is earmarked for "proxy" terrorists, ballistic missile and drone programs, and his nuclear program.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
A Weakened Iran Still Has A Major Deterrent: The Nuclear Option | The Wall Street Journal
Israel has shown Iran’s two most important deterrents against an attack—its ballistic missiles and allied militia Hezbollah—are less powerful than previously thought. Now attention is turning to whether Iran will accelerate its nuclear program to deter its biggest regional foe. For months, Iranian officials have said that Tehran has accumulated most of the knowledge needed to build a weapon and that it might reconsider Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s two-decade-old pledge not to procure weapons of mass destruction. In late September, a former head of Iran’s atomic agency, Fereydoun Abbasi, suggested that Tehran could start producing 90% enriched, weapons-grade uranium. U.S. officials have said it would take Iran less than two weeks to convert its current 60% nuclear-fuel stockpile into weapons-grade material.
There is no evidence that Iran has decided to build a nuclear weapon, and if it did, the U.S. and its allies would most likely be able to detect such a step soon after it was taken, CIA Director William Burns said Monday. As Israel weighs how it will retaliate against Iran after it came under an Iranian ballistic missile barrage last week, speculation has focused on whether it might choose to strike nuclear sites in Iran to try to cut off Tehran’s possible path to a nuclear weapon. Speaking at the Cipher Brief security conference in Sea Island, Georgia, Burns said Iran has advanced its nuclear program by stockpiling uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels. As a result, Iran could quickly secure enough fissile material for an atomic bomb if it chose to and there would be less time for the outside world to respond, he said.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Oil Rally Pauses As Investors Await Israeli Response | Reuters
A rally in oil prices took a break on Tuesday as the market waits for Israel's response to last week's Iranian rocket attacks that triggered a price surge on concerns of a broader conflict in the Middle East. Both benchmark contracts rose more than 3% on Monday to their highest since late August, adding to last week's rally of 8%, the biggest weekly gain in over a year, on concerns that hostilities could disrupt oil supplies from the Middle East.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Ex-Police Commander Defends Deadly 2022 Protest Crackdown | Iran International
top Iranian police commander at the center of repressing women's rights protests which shook the country in 2022 has described the force he commanded as unfairly maligned in stopping what he called a foreign plot. "The Supreme Leader emphasized that even if [the death of Mahsa Amini] had not occurred, enemies would have found another excuse for unrest, and FARAJA was recognized as ‘the oppressed yet powerful’ in these events," General Hossein Ashtari told state-controlled Tasnim media outlet, referring to the police force he once commanded.
Female Political Prisoners Demand Accountability Ror Sexual Abuse | Iran International
Twenty-two female political and ideological prisoners in Tehran’s Evin Prison have released an open letter demanding an immediate halt to the sexual harassment of inmates during body searches. "We, a group of female political and ideological prisoners in Evin prison, are demanding accountability for the unconventional body searches and sexual harassment of several inmates during these inspections. If the authorities do not respond, we will resort to protest actions," their letter published on political prisoner Gholrokh Iiraee’s X account on Sunday said. Recent reports have shed light on incidents of sexual assault and abuse within Iran’s prison system.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Scoop: White House Loses Trust In Israeli Government As Middle East Spirals | Axios
The Biden administration has in recent weeks grown increasingly distrustful of what the Israeli government says about its military and diplomatic plans in the multi-front war it is fighting, four U.S. officials told Axios. Why it matters: The worsening trust crisis is magnified by Israel's planned retaliation against Iran for its massive missile attack, which requires coordination with the U.S. in case Iran responds. The Biden administration isn't opposed to Israel responding to the Iranian attack last week but wants it to be measured, U.S. officials said. "Our trust of the Israelis is very low right now and for a good reason," one U.S. official said.
U.S. Military Aid For Israel Tops $17.9 Billion Since Last Oct. 7 | PBS
The United States has spent a record of at least $17.9 billion on military aid to Israel since the war in Gaza began and led to escalating conflict around the Middle East, according to a report for Brown University’s Costs of War project, released Monday on the anniversary of Hamas’ attacks on Israel. An additional $4.86 billion has gone into stepped-up U.S. military operations in the region since the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, researchers said in findings first provided to The Associated Press. That includes the costs of a Navy-led campaign to quell strikes on commercial shipping by Yemen’s Houthis, who are carrying them out in solidarity with the fellow Iranian-backed group Hamas.
Harris, Trump And Biden Mark Oct. 7 Attacks As US election Looms | Al-Monitor
President Joe Biden and US election rivals Kamala Harris and Donald Trump marked the first anniversary on Monday of Hamas's October 7 attacks on Israel, as the Middle Eastern conflict threatens to weigh on November's presidential vote. In a solemn Jewish ceremony of mourning at the White House, Biden lit a candle while a rabbi chanted a prayer for the victims, with the president calling for peace even as the region teeters on the edge of all-out war. Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Harris separately planted a memorial tree at her Washington residence, while Republican former president Trump met Jewish leaders at a sacred gravesite in New York.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Israel is not expected to hit Iranian nuclear sites in response to Tehran’s ballistic missile attack last week, the New York Times reports. Unnamed officials tell the newspaper that Israel is instead likely to focus on military bases, or intelligence or leadership targets, but could later go for the nuclear program if Iran responds. According to the Times, former and current senior Israeli officials “acknowledged doubts” whether Israel could do serious damage to Iran’s nuclear program, however officials at the Pentagon were said to be considering whether Israel would decide in any case that this is the best time to target it. The report questions whether a potential strike would be effective enough to sufficiently hamper the nuclear program, or could instead just send it underground or lead to Tehran accelerating it.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Israel Mounts Heavy Attack On Southern Lebanon | The New York Times
Israel’s military kept up its strikes on two fronts on Monday, with an intense barrage on southern Lebanon and a retaliatory attack targeting Hamas in southern Gaza, a sign of how significantly the fighting has spread in the year since Hamas’s cross-border assault. As Israelis commemorated the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attack that sparked Israel’s war in Gaza, Hamas targeted what it called “the depths of the occupation” in Tel Aviv with a rare rocket attack that left little damage. Abu Obeida, the military spokesman for Hamas’s military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, in a statement on the armed group’s website on Monday vowed that Hamas would continue fighting in what he called “a long, painful and extremely costly war of attrition” for Israel. Hours after the Hamas strike, Israel responded with what it said was an attack on the rocket launcher that had fired the projectiles. Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, in a video statement addressing the one-year anniversary of the Oct. 7 attack also vowed that Israel would keep fighting and argued that today’s battles would ensure the security of the state for future generations.
Israel Expands Offensive Against Hezbollah In South Lebanon | Al-Monitor
Israel ramped up its ground offensive against Hezbollah along Lebanon's southern coast on Tuesday, deploying more troops and urging civilians near the Mediterranean to evacuate. The military's announcement followed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's pledge to keep fighting a "sacred war" until Hezbollah and Hamas are defeated. Both groups have vowed no let-up in the multi-front conflict. Israel expanded its military operations in Lebanon last month after Hezbollah opened a front in support of its Palestinian ally Hamas, following the deadliest attack in its history on October 7, 2023.
Iran President Set To Meet Putin For First Time As Clash With Israel Escalates | The Times Of Israel
Russian President Vladimir Putin is to meet Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian for the first time on Friday, at a forum in the Central Asian country of Turkmenistan. Yury Ushakov, Putin’s aide on foreign policy, told journalists on Monday that the leaders will meet in Ashgabat while attending an event celebrating a Turkmen poet. “This meeting has great significance both for discussing bilateral issues as well as, of course, discussing the sharply escalated situation in the Middle East,” Ushakov said. Leaders of Central Asian countries are meeting to commemorate the 300th anniversary of the birth of 18th-century poet Magtymguly Pyragy. Putin’s attendance had not been announced previously.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Iran Foreign Minister To Visit Saudi Arabia, Regional Countries | Reuters
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will visit Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region starting on Tuesday to discuss regional issues and work on stopping Israel's "crimes" in Gaza and Lebanon, Iran's state media reported. Gulf Arab states - most of them major energy exporters like Iran - have sought to reassure Tehran of their neutrality in the Iran-Israel conflict, sources told Reuters last week.
MISCELLANEOUS
Russia, China and Iran Intend To Stoke False Election Claims, Officials Warn | The New York Times
Foreign efforts to undermine American democracy will continue after Election Day, U.S. intelligence officials said on Monday, with covert influence campaigns focused on questioning the validity of election results after polls close. Adversaries believe that the possibility of a close presidential race and contested control of the Senate and House of Representatives offer opportunities to undermine trust in the election’s integrity, the officials said as part of an update one month before the vote. The officials said they were worried about foreign adversaries amplifying domestic concerns about voting irregularities, as well as manufacturing their own allegations. After the 2020 vote, Donald J. Trump’s campaign made false allegations about voting irregularities, and he and his supporters have already advanced similar claims ahead of this year’s vote, many of them echoed by Russian state media or Kremlin-friendly organizations.