TOP STORIES
Iran Was ‘Defeated Very Badly’ In Syria, A Top General Admits | The New York Times
Iran’s top ranking general in Syria has contradicted the official line taken by Iran’s leaders on the sudden downfall of their ally Bashar al-Assad, saying in a remarkably candid speech last week that Iran had suffered a major defeat but would still try to operate in the country. An audio recording of the speech, given last week by Brig. Gen. Behrouz Esbati at a mosque in Tehran, surfaced publicly on Monday in Iranian media, and was a stark contrast to the remarks of Iran’s president, foreign minister and other top leaders. They have for weeks downplayed the magnitude of Iran’s strategic loss in Syria last month, when rebels swept Mr. al-Assad out of power, and said Iran would respect any political outcome decided by Syria’s people.
The purported leader of a Japan-based crime syndicate pleaded guilty Wednesday to charges alleging that he conspired to traffic uranium and plutonium from Myanmar in the belief that Iran would use it for nuclear weapons. Takeshi Ebisawa, 60, of Japan, entered the plea in Manhattan federal court to weapons and narcotics trafficking charges that carry a mandatory minimum of 10 years in prison and the possibility of life behind bars. Sentencing was set for April 9. Prosecutors say Ebisawa didn’t know he was communicating in 2021 and 2022 with a confidential source for the Drug Enforcement Administration along with the source’s associate, who posed as an Iranian general. Ebisawa was arrested in April 2022 in Manhattan during a DEA sting.
Iran Puts On Show Of Force With War Games Ahead Of Trump's Second Term | CBS News
Iran's military forces were four days into extensive drills on Wednesday that many believe are essentially preparations for how the country could react to a U.S., Israeli or combined attack on its nuclear facilities. Brigadier Gen. Mohammad-Nazar Azimi, commander of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Najaf Ashraf West Headquarters, has touted the nationwide drills as including "new weapons and equipment." Azimi also said the exercises would test the capabilities of Iran's Basij paramilitary forces, who are tasked with maintaining domestic security. The war games are likely aimed not only at demonstrating Iran's ability to respond to and defend against an attack from outside the country, but also to ensure the Basij are ready to quash any domestic uprising against the country's Islamic cleric rulers that could be precipitated by such an attack.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Iran Will Seize More Ships If Donald Trump Tightens Sanctions Screw, Says Ambrey | TradeWinds
Iran is likely to respond to any US crackdown on its oil exports during the presidency of Donald Trump with harassment and seizure of ships, according to security firm Ambrey. The incoming president has proposed Iran hawks for key foreign policy positions but any return to sanctions enforcement against Iran is likely to be piecemeal, according to the company’s assessment… United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), which tracks tankers hauling Iran, has called for action against flag states and called for sanctions against masters. The influential US-based group in 2024 identified 132 new vessels engaged in shipping Iranian oil, bringing the total number of “ghost fleet” tankers it tracks to 477.
Iran's 2024 Oil Exports Exceeded 580 Million Barrels Despite US Sanctions | Baird Maritime
In 2024, despite US sanctions, Iran's oil exports remained high, benefiting from OPEC+ cuts and the ongoing lax enforcement of sanctions, US-based non-profit United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) has confirmed. The high export figures helped the regime to bolster its economic resilience while continuing its support for human rights abuses and proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, UANI added. In 2024, Iran exported 587 million barrels of oil, an increase of 10.75 per cent compared to 2023’s 530 million barrels. Over the four years since the start of the Biden Administration, with less than one month remaining in its term, Iran has exported a cumulative total of nearly 1.98 billion barrels of oil. For the sixth consecutive year since the launch of UANI’s Tanker Tracker, China was the largest importer of Iranian oil, receiving 533 million barrels (an increase of 24 per cent from 2023’s 431 million barrels), constituting 91 per cent of Iran’s total oil exports (an increase of eight per cent from 83 per cent in 2023).
Iran Holds Air Defense Drills Near Natanz Nuclear Plant | i24 News
Iranian air defense drills held near Natanz nuclear plant suggest Tehran is gearing up for a possible Israeli or American strike. “There's never a discussion about the risks associated with endless diplomacy with the Islamic Republic,” UANI Policy Director Jason Brodsky says with Laura Cellier.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
The purported leader of a Japan-based crime syndicate pleaded guilty Wednesday to charges alleging that he conspired to traffic uranium and plutonium from Myanmar in the belief that Iran would use it for nuclear weapons. Takeshi Ebisawa, 60, of Japan, entered the plea in Manhattan federal court to weapons and narcotics trafficking charges that carry a mandatory minimum of 10 years in prison and the possibility of life behind bars. Sentencing was set for April 9. Prosecutors say Ebisawa didn’t know he was communicating in 2021 and 2022 with a confidential source for the Drug Enforcement Administration along with the source’s associate, who posed as an Iranian general. Ebisawa was arrested in April 2022 in Manhattan during a DEA sting.
Iran’s Nuke Sites More Exposed Than Ever — Trump Must Help Israel Take Them Out | New York Post
Joe Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan haunted his presidency. His poll numbers at home never recovered, and foreign aggressors took his ineptitude as an invitation to challenge US interests. Donald Trump will have a unique opportunity to do the exact opposite at the start of his second term — a sort of “reverse Afghanistan” that shocks the world through the successful application of American power — by cooperating with Israel to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. Thanks to Israel, Iran is reeling. Its most powerful proxy, Hezbollah, has been rendered impotent, and its pivotal ally, the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, has collapsed, its military capabilities laid waste by Israeli air power.
Iran To Hold Talks Over Its Nuclear Programme With European Countries | Euro News
Iran says it’s ready to hold talks over its nuclear programme and to address the West’s concerns. Iran says it is ready to hold fresh talks with western countries to discuss its nuclear programme and alleviate any concerns. Tehran is scheduled to hold talks with the UK, Germany and France on 13 and 14 January in the Swiss city of Geneva. Iran’s highly controversial nuclear program is on the agenda of those talks, as well as various other issues. “These talks (referring to the talks between Iran and Britain, Germany and France) will be held next week, I think on January 13 and 14, in Geneva. This is the continuation of the talks we had in December with the three European countries and the EU foreign policy representative.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
A Febrile Iran Poses A Risk Forecasting Challenge - And An Opportunity | The Maritime Executive
For Chief Risk Officers, and for CEOs and strategic planners in the maritime community, the volatile situation in Iran poses a considerable assessment challenge, with both potential business opportunity upsides and operational downsides. Prominence has been given to the setbacks Iran and its Axis of Resistance have suffered abroad, but at home the domestic situation is more unstable than it has been for many years. A continuance of the country’s current political direction is likely to lead to the imposition of snap-back sanctions, accompanied by social disorder and a further deterioration of already dire economic circumstances - all bad for orderly global trade. But the upside is that if change occurs - whether as the product of an initiative by the new Trump administration, as the fall-out of further Israeli-led military action, or because of internal political changes prompted by internal unrest in the country.
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
An Italian Journalist Is Freed From Detention In Iran And Returns Home | Associated Press
An Italian journalist detained in Iran for three weeks was freed Wednesday and returned home, after her fate had become intertwined with that of an Iranian engineer arrested in Italy and wanted by the United States. A plane carrying Cecilia Sala, 29, landed at Rome’s Ciampino airport, where Premier Giorgia Meloni was on hand to welcome her alongside Sala’s family members. Sala descended from the plane and ran to embrace her boyfriend, Daniele Raineri, who later posted a photo of a smiling Sala greeting Meloni in the airport on social media. Sala’s liberation marked a major diplomatic and political victory for Meloni, whose recent visit to President-elect Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago retreat greatly enhanced her stature internationally at a time when Italy was negotiating Sala’s release.
IRANIAN REGIONAL AGGRESSION
Iran Condemns French City’s ‘Insulting’ Poster Of Supreme Leader | Al Arabiya News
Iran strongly condemned on Thursday an “insulting” poster on a bus in a French city depicting supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, state media reported, with relations strained between the two countries. The city of Beziers in southern France had run a campaign on buses calling for selective sorting of waste using portraits of Iran’s Khamenei, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. “Don’t forget to sort the trash,” said the slogan on the bus poster, according to the official Facebook page of the French city, and images circulating online. The director general for Western Europe at Iran’s foreign ministry, Majid Nili, “strongly condemned” the action of the French city which was “insulting to the sacred values and personalities of our country,” according to the official IRNA news agency.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Iran Accuses Israel Of Destabilizing Syria, Urges UN To Intercede | Iran International
Iran's ambassador to the United Nations on Wednesday urged the Security Council to hold Israel accountable for what he described as its destabilization of Syria. Addressing a Security Council meeting on the situation of Syria, Amir-Saeid Iravani called Israel "the greatest threat to the present and future of Syria.” “Israel continues to violate Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the Security Council must take decisive action to stop and hold Israel accountable for its destabilizing actions," he said. Since the beginning of Syria's civil war in 2011, Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes in Syria to quash Iran’s influence and interrupt supply routes to Hezbollah in Lebanon, its most powerful armed ally in the region.
IRGC Generals Admit Iran Cannot Respond To Israel At This Time | Iran International
Two senior IRGC commanders acknowledged this week that the Islamic Republic is currently unable to retaliate against Israel's October airstrikes, which reportedly inflicted significant damage on Iran's air defense system. Iranian political and military officials have repeatedly threatened to launch a large-scale retaliation against Israel, referring to the operation as “True Promise 3.” The codename follows two missile and drone strikes carried out against Israel in 2024 under the same series. One IRGC general, who until recently was stationed in Syria, told Iranian media that such an operation should have been launched earlier, and now Iran is not in a position to ignite a large-scale conflict with Israel. General Behrouz Esbati, currently heading the Iranian armed forces Cyberspace Headquarters, spoke to the conservative Tabnak news website, stating, "I do not know why the operation was not launched or who decided against responding to Israel.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Italy Says No US Extradition Request For Detained Iranian Businessman So Far | Reuters
The United States has not submitted any formal request of extradition for an Iranian businessman Mohammad Abedini detained in Milan, Italy's justice minister said in an interview published on Thursday. "The matter of Abedini is purely legal ... regardless of the (freeing of Italian journalist) Cecilia Sala. It is premature to talk of extradition, also because no formal request has been sent to our ministry so far," Justice Minister Carlo Nordio told daily La Stampa. Abedini is wanted by the United States on suspicion of involvement in a drone strike against U.S. forces in Jordan. Iran has denied involvement and said last week the detention of the Iranian national amounted to hostage-taking.
CYBERWARFARE
Iran FX Site Shuts As Cyber Attacks Jump Amid Central Bank Spat | Bloomberg
Administrators of Iran’s most popular website for tracking the rial’s open-market exchange rate said they took it offline due to cyber attacks and security concerns after criticism from the head of the country’s central bank. Bonbast.com suffered “severe” distributed denial-of-service attacks following the comments by Central Bank Governor Mohammad Reza Farzin, a representative for the website told Bloomberg in an emailed statement late Wednesday. So-called DDoS attacks involve overloading a target with traffic in order to make it unavailable to users. “Due to this, as well as the security risks for our families and colleagues in Iran, we have decided to take the website offline,” the representative added, declining to identify themselves or say where they are based.
MISCELLANEOUS
Singapore Says 3 Men Detained Since October For Seeking To Join Middle East Conflict | Reuters
Singapore said on Thursday it had detained three men since October last year who were preparing to travel to the Middle East to fight against Israel, and one had expressed willingness to carry out attacks in Singapore if instructed to do so. The Home Affairs Ministry said in a statement the three Singaporean men were not linked to one other and had been "radicalised" online, but there was no indication others had been recruited. It was not immediately clear why the ministry announced the detention on Thursday. Following their arrest in October, they were detained under Singapore's Internal Security Act, which allows suspects to be held for lengthy periods without trial. The three were a director of a digital marketing company, a lift mechanic and a security guard, aged 41, 21 and 44, respectively.
Iran Slams French Campaign Using Khamenei Photo For 'Waste Sorting' | Iran International
Iran has denounced a French waste-sorting campaign that features Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, calling it a provocative insult and a violation of international norms respecting cultural values. The campaign, spearheaded by Béziers Mayor Robert Ménard, features Khamenei alongside North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin, with their images displayed under the slogan "Don’t forget to sort your waste" on the back of municipal buses. Majid Nili, an aide to Iran’s Foreign Minister, announced Thursday that the Iranian Embassy in Paris has lodged an official complaint against the campaign, which he described as a clear insult to the sanctities and figures of the Islamic Republic and an example of hate speech as well as a blatant violation of internationally accepted principles and norms concerning respect for cultural values.