TOP STORIES
Iran Tells Region ‘Strong and Complex’ Attack Coming On Israel | The Wall Street Journal
Amid U.S. warnings against a counterattack on Israel, Iran is sending a defiant diplomatic message: It is planning a complex response involving even more powerful warheads and other weapons, said Iranian and Arab officials briefed on the plans. It remains to be seen whether the Iranian threats are real or just tough talk. Israel’s punishing airstrike against Iran on Oct. 26 shredded the country’s strategic air defenses, leaving it badly exposed and sharply raising the risks to Iran if it follows through.
An Iranian-American journalist who once worked for a U.S. government-funded broadcaster is believed to have been detained by Iran for months now, authorities said Sunday, further raising the stakes as Tehran threatens to retaliate over an Israeli attack on the country. The imprisonment of Reza Valizadeh was confirmed to The Associated Press by the U.S. State Department as Iran marked the 45th anniversary of the takeover of the American Embassy and hostage crisis on Sunday. It also followed a threat by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a day earlier to provide “a crushing response”to Israel and the U.S. as long-range B-52 bombers reached the Middle East in an attempt to deter Tehran.
US Confirms Reports That Iran Arrested An Iranian-American Citizen | The New York Times
The State Department confirmed that it was looking into reports that an Iranian-American citizen had been arrested in Iran. The news comes amid renewed tensions between Iran, which has long used Western detainees for leverage, and the United States, Israel’s biggest ally, following Israeli airstrikes on Iran last month. “We are aware of reports that this dual U.S.-Iranian citizen has been arrested in Iran,” a State Department spokesperson wrote on Sunday in an email in response to questions from The New York Times about Reza Valizadeh, an Iranian-American journalist who rights groups said last month had been arrested and was being held in a Tehran prison without access to a lawyer. The State Department did not respond to a follow-up email asking if Mr. Valizadeh was the dual citizen being detained.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's speech marks another chilling warning that Tehran looks to get revenge for Israel's October 26 strikes. Khamenei, delivering his speech in Tehran, was met with chants from students praising "the blood in our veins is a gift to our leader"... Jason Brodsky, policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran, told The U.S. Sun that a Trump victory in the election on November 5 would pose a "very significant challenge" to the Islamic Republic. Next week's election comes at a critical time in US-Iranian relations, with tensions between Washington and Tehran as high as they've ever been.
Since 2006, Hezbollah has been positioned right on the other side of the fence separating Israel from Lebanon. This is precisely the situation that the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, also known as UNIFIL, was designed to prevent... The Lebanese militia’s consistent intimidation of UNIFIL troops has played a major role in neutering the peacekeeping force, added Doron, who is now a senior advisor at the non-profit United Against Nuclear Iran, where he focuses on Hezbollah. He noted that there have been multiple suspected Hezbollah attacks on UNIFIL over the years, including a June 2007 car bomb, which killed six UN peacekeepers near the southern Lebanese town of Khiyam.
Indications Iran Planning Attack On Israel From Iraq | i24 News
U.S. reportedly warns #Iran it won’t be able to restrain #Israel, if Tehran conducts another strike against Israel. Could Iranian proxies strike from Iraq or Yemen? UANI Senior Advisory Norman Roule shares insights with i24 News from Washington.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Iran claimed it is capable of building a nuclear weapon as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed a "tooth-breaking" response to the actions of both Israel and the U.S. on Saturday. A top adviser to Khamenei, Kamal Kharrazi, issued the warning about Iran's nuclear capacity on Friday, saying that the country may be prepared to alter its policies on using nuclear weapons if the nation faces an existential threat. "If an existential threat arises, Iran will modify its nuclear doctrine, we have the capability to build weapons and have no issue in this regard," Kharrazi told Lebanese media.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Britain Prepared To Sanction Iran Over Nuclear Deal Breaches | The Telegraph
Britain is prepared to trigger “snapback” sanctions against Iran over nuclear deal breaches, the Sunday Telegraph has learned. David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, is ready to trigger a new round of sanctions against the Islamic Republic to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. The UK remains a participant of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known as the Iran nuclear deal, and can therefore unilaterally force a return to sanctions if it considers that Iran has violated the terms of the deal. The nuclear deal was significantly weakened by the US withdrawal in 2018 under the Trump administration, although major signatories, including the UK, France and Germany, remain committed in theory.
IMF Predicts Continued Economic Turmoil In Iran | Iran International
The latest report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that economic turmoil in Iran is expected to persist, with some indicators worsening significantly compared to previous years. The IMF states that for Iran to avoid a budget deficit next year, global oil prices would need to reach above $124 per barrel—a figure 70% higher than the current Brent crude prices on international markets. According to the report, Iran needed oil prices above $121 this year to prevent a budget shortfall, which did not materialize, leading the government to engage in substantial borrowing.
MISSILE PROGRAM
Israel’s Strikes On Iran Spark Interest In Air-Launched Ballistic Missiles | Reuters
Israel's effective use of air-launched ballistic missiles in its airstrikes against Iran is expected to pique interest elsewhere in acquiring the weapons, which most major powers have avoided in favour of cruise missiles and glide bombs. The Israel Defense Forces said its Oct. 26 raid knocked out Iranian missile factories and air defences in three waves of strikes. Researchers said that based on satellite imagery, targets included buildings once used in Iran's nuclear programme. Tehran defends such targets with "a huge variety" of anti-aircraft systems, said Justin Bronk, an airpower and technology expert at London's Royal United Services Institute. Cruise missiles are easier targets for dense, integrated air defences than ballistic missiles are. But ballistic missiles are often fired from known launch points, and most cannot change course in flight.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran Detains Woman Who Stripped To Her Underwear At University In Apparent Protest | ABC News
A woman at an Iranian university stripped down to her underwear in an apparent act of protest after university security forces reportedly violently stopped her for not wearing a headscarf. Video of the incident on Saturday shows an undressed woman sitting by a staircase in an outdoor area of a branch of Tehran's Islamic Azad University. It later shows the woman walking on the sidewalk and crossing the street before being surrounded by security forces and seemingly pushed into a car.
October Sees Record Number Of Executions In Iran | Iran International
The Iran Human Rights Organization has reported a sharp increase in executions within Iran, with at least 166 people hanged in October alone, marking the highest monthly figure in over 20 years. The wave of executions comes in the shadows of the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, a backdrop some rights advocates argue is being used to divert attention from the domestic situation. Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, director of the Norway-based organization, said: “While the world’s attention is focused on the tensions between Iran and Israel, the Islamic Republic is using this opportunity to conduct the largest wave of executions in Iran’s prisons in two decades."
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
A Chaotic Presidential Transition Could Embolden U.S. Adversaries | The Washington Post
The Biden administration is on heightened alert for foreign attempts to threaten or destabilize the United States during the presidential transition period, as officials seek to ensure that efforts to exploit a vulnerable interval — made more perilous by America’s hyperpolarized politics — are unable to succeed. Officials said preparations at the Pentagon are focused on potential post-election threats from nations including Iran, North Korea, Russia and China, along with extremist groups. Intelligence and law enforcement officials meanwhile are girding for continued efforts by the Kremlin — already blamed for significant influence and misinformation operations in the lead-up to Tuesday’s vote — and other adversaries to stoke discord and undermine confidence in the outcome.
Iran Braces For Trump Victory, Fearing More Israeli Strikes, Western Sanctions | Reuters
Iran’s leadership and allies are bracing for what they would regard as a dreadful outcome of the imminent U.S. presidential election: A return to power of Donald Trump. Opinion polls suggest the Republican Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris remain locked in a close contest. But Iranian leaders and their regional allies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen are concerned that Trump could well triumph on Nov. 5 and this could spell more trouble for them. Iran's main concern is the potential for Trump to empower Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to strike Iran's nuclear sites, conduct targeted assassinations and reimpose his "maximum pressure policy" through heightened sanctions on their oil industry, according to Iranian, Arab and Western officials.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
The Israeli military said Sunday it has carried out a ground raid into Syria, seizing a Syrian citizen involved in Iranian networks. It was the first time in the current war that Israel announced its troops operated in Syrian territory. Israel has carried out airstrikes in Syria multiple times over the past year, targeting members of Lebanon’s Hezbollah and officials from Iran, the close ally of both Hezbollah and Syria. But it has not previously made public any ground forays into Syria. The Israeli military said the seizure was part of a special operation “that took place in recent months,” though it did not say exactly when it occurred. Syria did not immediately confirm the announcement, but a pro-government Syrian radio station, Sham FM, reported Sunday that Israeli forces carried out a “kidnapping operation” over the summer targeting a man in the south of the country.
Russia To Launch Two Iranian Satellites On Nov. 5, Tehran's Moscow Envoy Says | Reuters
Russia will launch two Iranian satellites into orbit using a Soyuz launcher on Tuesday, Iran's ambassador to Moscow said on Monday, as the two U.S.-sanctioned countries deepen their scientific relationship. "In continuation of the development of Iran-Russia scientific and technological cooperation, two Iranian satellites, Kowsar and Hodhod, will be launched to a 500 km orbit of earth on Tuesday, Nov. 5, by a Soyuz launch vehicle," Iranian Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali said in a post on X.
Israel Sees An Unprecedented Surge In Citizens Spying For Iran | Bloomberg
As its war with Iranian proxies drags into a second year, Israel’s top officials are alarmed about a new threat to the home front: their fellow citizens helping Tehran locate targets for missile salvos and potential assassinations. Since July, the Shin Bet counter-intelligence service has gone public with nine cases that produced indictments against 23 suspected spies - most of them, unusually, from Israel’s Jewish majority. Around half face charges that could in theory carry the death penalty but usually stop at life behind bars if found guilty. In a small country used to closing ranks during crises, the sense of trust and security has frayed. Meanwhile, Iran’s promise of a “crushing” counter-strike after Israeli warplanes bombed its territory on Oct. 26 has raised the fresh specter of local informants helping it deliver the blow.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Yemen’s Houthi rebels have been transformed from a local armed group with limited capabilities to a powerful military organization with support from Iran, Iraqi armed groups, Lebanon’s Hezbollah militants and others, U.N. experts said in a new report. The Iranian-backed Houthis have exploited the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and worked to enhance their status in Iran’s self-described “Axis of Resistance” to gain popularity in the region and beyond, the experts monitoring sanctions against the Houthis said in the 537-page report to the U.N. Security Council.
IRAQ & IRAN
Israel has identified targets in Iraq it will strike if Iran-backed militia continue to attack Israel from there, and has warned Baghdad, the London-based Saudi Elaph news site reports. Unnamed officials apparently tell the outlet that satellites have monitored Tehran working to transfer ballistic missiles and related equipment from Iran to Iraqi territory, with the presumed goal of using them in an expected upcoming attack on Israel. The report says Israel is monitoring and identifying targets belonging to the Iran-backed militias, as well as Iraqi state targets, and has warned Baghdad that it must rein in the militias and stop them from using its territory to launch attacks.
AFGHANISTAN & IRAN
Iran’s Exports To Afghanistan Rise 31 Percent Over Past Six Months | Amu TV
Iran’s non-oil exports to Afghanistan have surged by 31 percent in the first half of the current Iranian calendar year, reaching over $1.07 billion, according to Iran’s commercial attaché in Afghanistan. This marks a $254 million increase compared with the same period last year. According to figures reported by the ILNA news agency, nearly 560,000 tons of Iranian goods, including iron, steel, cement, eggs, and potatoes, have been exported to Afghanistan in recent months.