TOP STORIES
Iran Strikes Tel Aviv and Haifa as Israel Conflict Enters Fourth Day | Guardian
Iranian missiles have struck Israeli cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa, destroying homes and fuelling concerns among world leaders at this week’s G7 meeting that the conflict between the two regional enemies could lead to a broader Middle East war. Israel’s Magen David Adom (MDA) emergency service said Monday that four people were pronounced dead after strikes at four sites in central Israel, with 87 injured. The dead were two women and two men, all approximately 70 years old, the MDA said.
Trump Says 'It's Possible' US Gets Involved in Israel-Iran Conflict | ABC News
In an interview with ABC News' Rachel Scott, Trump declined to comment on whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a personal plea for the U.S. to get more involved. ‘We're not involved in it. It's possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved,” the president said. . . . The president, who stated he gave Iran a “60-day ultimatum” to “make a deal,” told ABC News he is not setting a new deadline. “No, there's no deadline. But they are talking. They'd like to make a deal. They're talking. They continue to talk,” the president said, referring to Iran. “Something like this had to happen because I think even from both sides, but something like this had to happen. They want to talk, and they will be talking,” the president added. Iran's foreign minister told a meeting of ambassadors in Tehran on Sunday that Israel's ongoing attacks on the country could not have happened “without the agreement and support of the United States” and insisted Iranian officials do not 'believe the U.S.'s claim' that it had no involvement. Despite the stalled talks over Iran's nuclear program, the president expressed optimism that the strikes will bring Iran to the table quickly. “May have forced a deal to go quicker, actually,” Trump said.
Trump Threatens Iran with Retaliation ‘At Levels Never Seen Before’ | Politico
“The U.S. had nothing to do with the attack on Iran, tonight,” said Trump in the small hours of Sunday. “If we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before.” He added: “However, we can easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel, and end this bloody conflict!!!”
UANI IN THE NEWS
After Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promised new retaliatory attacks against Israel following its unprecedented military operation, there has been considerable speculation about whether Israel will retaliate in the ongoing volley by killing Khamenei himself. Khamenei is the glue that holds the Islamic Republic together, having served as supreme leader since 1989. If he were to be killed by Israel, it would shock the Islamic Republic and could destabilize the regime.
We are witnessing the “Syria-ization” of the regime in Iran. In the immediate term expect chaos and a domestic clampdown. In the medium to long-term, the prospect of Ayatollah Khamenei – the 86-year-old supreme leader – suffering the same fate as Bashar al-Assad, the deposed Syrian dictator, is now a genuine possibility. Israel’s remarkable operation inside Iran since Friday has not only successfully targeted the Iranian regime’s nuclear facilities, scientists and the senior military leadership, but has also effectively dismantled the Iranian air defence systems. Israeli air superiority over Iran means one thing: the IDF can attack whatever it wants, whenever it wants. This is perhaps the most consequential aspect of the conflict, thus far – and bares uncanny resemblance to the final years of the Assad regime.
With Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic-missile facilities and senior officers and scientists, the age of diplomatic nonproliferation is over. It had been on life-support since North Korea went nuclear in 2006. Negotiations with Tehran tried hard to keep alive the hope that a deeply ideological regime massively invested in developing atomic arms could be dissuaded by sanctions or the allure of commerce. We don’t know yet how successful the Israeli raids were. . . . It’s not unlikely, however, that Jerusalem will turn out to have paralyzed, or even convulsed, the Islamic Republic for the rest of the 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s rule.
US Advocacy Group United Against Nuclear Iran Praises Attacks | Iran International
The heads of a prominent advocacy group dedicated to barring Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon praised Israel's attacks on Iran. “Today, we stand with Israel and the people of Iran. Israel should never again face the threat of nuclear annihilation at the hands of this murderous regime,” United Against Nuclear Iran heads Governor Jeb Bush and Mark Wallace said in a joint statement. “Israel has the absolute right to defend against Iran’s nuclear threats. It did so with precision and respect for the Iranian people as it targeted the Ayatollah’s regime and the oppressors of the Iranian people.”
How Israel Attacked Iran: From Masked Men in the Desert to Devastation | Times of London
“Clearly they didn’t see it coming,” said Kasra Aarabi, a director of research at United Against Nuclear Iran, a non-profit body based in the US. “They were completely caught off guard.” . . . Questions remain about what Iran will do next. Aarabi, of United Against Nuclear Iran, said Israel’s attacks had caused “irreparable damage” to the regime. He added that Israel’s military capabilities were “far superior,” and that Iran was more likely to hit back through terrorism. “There is now extreme pressure on Ayatollah Khamenei,” he said, before comparing him to the deposed leader of Syria. “He needs to give the hard base of the regime something as otherwise he will face the same fate as Assad.”
Khamenei, Iran's Political Survivor, Faces Ultimate Test | Agence France Presse
"He has prided himself on deterring conflict away from Iran's borders since he assumed the supreme leadership in 1989," said Jason Brodsky, policy director of US-based United Against Nuclear Iran. "So Khamenei has badly miscalculated." Brodsky said the nearest comparison to the current situation were the attacks against leaders blamed on the opposition in the early 1980s which saw the then president killed and Khamenei himself wounded in a 1981 assassination attempt. "It will be an experience that Khamenei will undoubtedly draw upon in the current context," Brodsky told AFP. "But what we are witnessing today is on a completely different level of magnitude. And it's occurring at a pace that threatens to overwhelm the capacity of Tehran."
Top Advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Killed in Israeli Strikes, State Media Says | Fox News
Supreme Leader Khamenei entrusted [Ali] Shamkhani and appointed him as commander of the Artesh Navy in 1989, where he helped rebuild Iran's naval capabilities post-Iran-Iraq War, according to the group United Against Nuclear Iran.
“Without those bombs, the Israelis will have to be patient. They could try to destroy Fordow by weakening the Iranian defense system west of the plant and by sending commandos there. It would be a difficult operation, but it is within their reach,” said Saeid Golkar of United Against Nuclear Iran. . . . “We have to wait for the next few days. I think Israel will do everything it can to make sure that its arch enemy can no longer be a threat. They will continue with the attacks on nuclear sites and I don't think even the remaining scientists can rest easy.”
“And that’s exactly the effect Netanyahu was hoping to create,” Saeid Golkar, a professor and member of United Against Nuclear Iran, told Corriere. “He took them by surprise and disoriented them. The Israeli attack created a chasm in the regime, it was planned to paralyze the Islamic Republic, which, mutilated at the top, is struggling to decide its next moves.” . . . [Khamenei] does what he can, therefore. He replaces the military roles left uncovered “as Hezbollah did in October, with the pager attack, because he has to restore some semblance of control and direction,” comments the director of United Against Iran Nuclear, Jason Brodsky.
UANI Policy Director Jason M. Brodsky Discusses the Israeli Strikes on Iran | Sky News
“I don’t think regime change is an explicit goal of the Israelis in this military operation, but I do think Israel is trying to create the conditions that risk the stability of the regime in order to force a choice for the Iranian regime: that it can preserve its regime or it can have its nuclear program. It can’t have both,” UANI Policy Director Jason M. Brodsky said on Sky News.
Will the U.S. Join the Fight Against Iran? | Yedioth Ahronoth
The longer Iran delays returning to the negotiating table, the more likely it is that the United States will enter the fight against the rogue regime, according to Jason Brodsky, policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). He told ILTV News that if the U.S. does get involved militarily, it is most likely to target the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant—an underground facility buried deep within the earth. “It’s in a hardened target, and only the United States has the requisite munitions that would be able to pierce that hardened target that’s buried underground in the form of a Massive Ordnance Penetrator,” Brodsky said. “The US has those—not only those munitions, but also has the delivery vehicle to get that bomb and bring it, to employ it against the Fordow enrichment facilities. So that is where we are going to likely see the US concentrate its efforts, if it gets involved offensively in this operation.”
Iran Analyst: Israeli Strikes an Example of Effective ‘Coercive Diplomacy’ | Jewish Insider
Jason Brodsky, the policy director for United Against Nuclear Iran, told Jewish Insider on Friday morning that he sees Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets as an effort at coercive diplomacy—in full coordination with the Trump administration—attempting to force Iran into a more restrictive nuclear deal amid its recalcitrance in talks with the U.S.
Khamenei ‘Not Off Limits,’ Israeli Official Tells ‘WSJ’ | European Jewish Press
Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, wrote that “with Ayatollah Khamenei, it was always bound to end in tears and flames when Iran’s regime is built on that.” “I look at Israel’s military operation against the Islamic Republic as the culmination of 46 years of terror against the United States and Israel,” Brodsky wrote. “The accounts are being settled. There are no happy endings with this regime.”
“Iranian intransigence has led to this” said UANI Research Director Daniel Roth when discussing the Israeli strikes with Peter Caldwell on TalkTV.
UANI Policy Director Jason M. Brodsky Discusses the Israeli Strikes on Iran | i24
Israel and the U.S. are pressing the Iranian regime to choose between its nuclear program and survival, and the longer the regime delays the decision the likelier a U.S. strike on Fordow becomes, @JasonMBrodsky tells @Nicole_Zedeck.
UANI Policy Director Jason M. Brodsky Discusses the Israel–Iran War | i24
“I think we’re seeing the chickens come home to roost for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has sat quietly in his chair in Tehran watching the region burn through use of his proxies while avoiding any real direct military consequences on Iranian soil, and now we are seeing Israel hold him accountable with the support of the United States” said UANI Policy Director Jason M. Brodsky when discusses the Israel-Iran War on i24.
Jason Brodsky, policy director of the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) organization, reported on Sunday through his Twitter account that the Israeli Air Force had hit an Iranian refueling plane at Mashad airport, in the east of the country. The attack came more than 2,300 kilometers from Israel, which would make it the most far-reaching bombardment carried out so far by the Israeli army since it began its military operation on Iran early Friday.
“This is not just a war over centrifuges and uranium stockpiles,” wrote Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, in commentary cited by JNS. “With Ayatollah Khamenei, it was always bound to end in tears and flames when Iran’s regime is built on that.” . . . “The accounts are being settled,” Brodsky wrote, as quoted by JNS. “There are no happy endings with this regime.”
General Abdolrahim Mousavi, who now takes over as the Chief of the Armed Forces, previously served as Commander-in-Chief of Iran’s Army. He has been sanctioned by multiple Western countries, including the United States, European Union, United Kingdom, and Australia, for alleged serious human rights violations. According to advocacy group ‘United Against Nuclear Iran,’ the US sanctioned Mousavi in 2023, freezing any assets under its jurisdiction.
General Abdolrahim Mousavi, who is now taking over command of the entire military, had previously been the Commander-in-Chief of the Army. He is listed on several international sanctions lists, including those of the United States, European Union, United Kingdom, and Australia. These sanctions are for his supposed involvement in serious human rights abuses. In 2023, the U.S. sanctions froze any assets he may have within its reach. The European Union’s sanctions likewise referred to his actions in putting down anti-government protests. Human rights group United Against Nuclear Iran has been vocal about his track record.
Shamkhani's rhetoric at the time repeated the traditional Islamic Republic's order of the Persian Gulf, rejecting the presence of foreign warships and announcing the “ability to install guided missile sites” from north to south of the Gulf, according to the United Against Nuclear Iran profile on him.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS
US Aircraft Carrier Heads West from South China Sea amid Middle East Tensions | Reuters
U.S. aircraft carrier USS Nimitz left the South China Sea on Monday morning heading west, according to data from ship tracking website Marine Traffic, after a reception for its planned port call in central Vietnam was cancelled. . . . Data from Marine Traffic showed the carrier on Monday morning was moving west in the direction of the Middle East, where the battle between Israel and Iran is escalating.
Iranian Strikes Kill at Least 8 in Israel, Including 4 in Petah Tikva | New York Times
Iranian strikes on populated areas of Israel overnight killed at least eight people, the local authorities said on Monday, as Israel’s military attacked military sites in Iran and the four-day-old conflict between the Middle East’s two most powerful militaries showed no sign of slowing.
Death Toll Grows as Israel and Iran Trade Attacks for Third Day | Associated Press
The death toll grew Sunday as Israel and Iran exchanged missile attacks for a third straight day, with Israel warning that worse is to come. Israel targeted Iran’s Defense Ministry headquarters in Tehran and sites it alleged were associated with Iran’s nuclear program, while Iranian missiles evaded Israeli air defenses and slammed into buildings deep inside Israel. In Israel, at least 10 people were killed in Iranian strikes overnight and into Sunday, according to the Magen David Adom rescue service, bringing the country’s total death toll to 14. The country’s main international airport and airspace remained closed for a third day. In Iran, the health ministry reported 224 people have been killed since Israel’s attack began Friday.
Israel, Iran Trade Blows for Third Day With No Sign of Letup | Bloomberg
Israel and Iran continued intense bombardments of one another for a third day, with growing international concern the conflict will spread across one of the world’s key oil-producing regions. On Sunday, Israel reported a new wave of missile attacks from Iran, just hours after the previous one, and that it was carrying out simultaneous strikes on Tehran. Since Friday, 13 people have been killed in Israel by Iranian strikes and 380 injured, Israel’s emergency services said. At least 80 people in Iran have been killed, according to the government. Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said his country’s targets now include the “regime in Tehran.”
How Trump Went from Opposing Israel’s Strikes on Iran to Reluctant Support | NBC News
President Donald Trump had opposed Israeli military action against Iran, favoring negotiations over bombing. But in the days before the strikes began, he became convinced that Israel’s heightened anxiety over Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities was warranted. After a pivotal briefing from the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Air Force Gen. Dan Caine, on Israel’s plans and U.S. options for supporting its operation, he gave tacit approval to Israel to have at it and decided to provide limited U.S. backing.
Israel Urges U.S. to Join War with Iran to Eliminate Nuclear Program | Axios
Israel has asked the Trump administration over the past 48 hours to join the war with Iran in order to eliminate its nuclear program, according to two Israeli officials. . . . An Israeli official claimed to Axios that the U.S. might join the operation, and that President Trump even suggested he'd do so if necessary in a recent conversation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A White House official denied that on Friday. A second U.S. official confirmed on Saturday that Israel has urged the Trump administration to join the war, but said currently the administration is not considering it.
The U.S. military is operating in the air, on land and at sea to shoot down Iranian missiles fired at Israel in response to its attacks on Iran’s nuclear program and military leadership, tilting Washington toward more direct involvement in the widening conflict.
The Israeli Air Force has established “full aerial superiority” over Iranian capital Tehran, IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin says in a press conference. He adds that the IAF has destroyed a third of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers and is managing to disrupt “extensive parts” of its attacks on Israel. . . . Since the start of the conflict, the IDF says, it has destroyed over 120 Iranian ballistic missile launchers, which it says is a third of what Iran had.
Iran Threatens to Target American, British and French Military Bases | Guardian
Iran has warned the US, UK and France that their military bases and ships will be targeted if they help block the Iranian missile and drone retaliation for Israel’s attack.
Iran has fired some 280 ballistic missiles at Israel in several barrages since the Israel Defense Forces began its operation against the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program early Friday morning . . . Most of the missiles were intercepted by air defenses at interception rates similar to those in Iran’s April and October 2024 attacks on Israel, the IDF said. . . . Several missiles, though, have “breached” air defenses, according to the IDF, striking residential areas in Tel Aviv, Ramat Gan, Rishon Lezion, Bat Yam and Rehovot in central Israel, and Haifa and Tamra in the north, causing casualties and damage. . . . In all, at least 14 people have been killed and hundreds have been wounded in missile impacts.
Iran’s High-Tech Onslaught Punches Deadly Holes in Israel’s Air Defences | Telegraph
Tehran has now fired more than 200 missiles at Israel since Friday, according to Israeli military officials. Many have penetrated Israel’s renowned air defences, forcing the military to warn its people that the defences were “not hermetic”. Scenes of devastation on the streets of Tel Aviv have prompted alarm over what some believed to be the impenetrable layers of protection over Israel, including the Iron Dome.
Israeli ministers were informed on Sunday that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei personally ordered attacks against Israeli civilian population centers, sources informed The Jerusalem Post on Sunday.
Trump Ruled Out Israeli Assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, U.S. Officials Say | Axios
Over the weekend, Israel had an operational window to assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but President Trump made it clear that he is against such a move, U.S officials told Axios. . . . White House officials say Trump is still trying to prevent further escalation of the war and resume talks with Iran on a nuclear deal. . . . “We communicated to the Israelis that President Trump is opposed to [killing Khamenei],” [a U.S. official stated]. “The Iranians haven't killed an American and discussion of killing political leaders should not be on the table,” the official said.
Netanyahu Says ‘We’ll Do What We Need to Do’ with Iran’s Leader | Financial Times
A US official confirmed a Reuters report that Donald Trump had vetoed an Israeli plan to kill Khamenei. Netanyahu declined to comment on the report. “But I can tell you, I think that we do what we need to do, we’ll do what we need to do. And I think the United States knows what is good for the United States,” he added.
Khamenei and His Family Hiding in Bunker North of Tehran, Sources Say | Iran International
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was moved to an underground bunker in Lavizan in northeastern Tehran hours after Israel began its attacks on Tehran early Friday, two informed sources inside Iran told Iran International. All members of Khamenei's family including his son Mojtaba are with him, the sources said. . . . A diplomatic source in the Middle East . . . [said] that Israel could have eliminated Khamenei on the first night of the operation, but the Israeli government chose to keep him alive to give him a final chance to decide on completely dismantling the Islamic Republic’s uranium enrichment program.
Trump Says Israel and Iran Should Make a Deal to End the War | Axios
“Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal, just like I got India and Pakistan to make . . . we will have PEACE, soon, between Israel and Iran! Many calls and meetings now taking place,” Trump wrote Sunday on his Truth Social account. . . . Two Israeli officials said that there are currently no serious diplomatic initiatives to try and stop the war. One of the officials said that Israel currently isn't interested in a ceasefire because it still hasn’t implemented all its objectives—especially when it comes to destroying Iran's nuclear program.
Trump Sees Peace Between Iran and Israel Soon, Eyes Putin Role | Reuters
[I]n an interview with ABC News, [President Donald Trump] said he was open to Putin, whose forces invaded Ukraine and who has resisted Trump’s attempts to broker a ceasefire with Kyiv, serving as a mediator [between Iran and Israel].
Israel’s Mission Hinges on Destroying Iran’s Hardest Nuclear Target | Axios
One factor that could determine whether Israel’s audacious attack on Iran proves a daring success or a dangerous mistake is the fate of Iran’s Fordow uranium enrichment site. . . . Israel will require unforeseen tactical ingenuity or U.S. assistance to destroy Fordow, which is built into a mountain and deep underground. But if the facility remains intact and accessible, a nuclear program Israel is determined to “eliminate” could actually accelerate. . . . That’s why the Israeli government hopes the Trump administration ultimately decides to join Israel's operation. Israel lacks the huge bunker busters needed to destroy this facility and the strategic bombers to carry them. The U.S. has both within flying distance of Iran. . . . Some experts think Israel could try to replicate the effect of a massive bunker buster by repeatedly bombing the same location. A much riskier approach would be sending special forces to raid the facility.
Israel Has Struck a Blow to Iran’s Nuclear Program—But It Isn’t Yet a Knockout | Wall Street Journal
Israel has delivered a powerful blow to parts of Iran’s nuclear program, but it hasn’t yet taken out the most heavily protected of Iran’s nuclear sites, leaving Tehran a potential path to the bomb. . . . Israel’s biggest challenge remains: taking out Iran’s most fortified nuclear facility, Fordow, where Iran produces highly enriched uranium. Many believe Fordow, which is built deep into a mountainside near Iran’s holy city of Qom, could only be destroyed with a massive bunker-busting U.S. bomb.
Israel Reports New Strikes on Iranian Missile Infrastructure | Wall Street Journal
The Israeli air force struck storage and missile-launch infrastructure in western Iran on Sunday morning, Israel’s military said, as attacks in Iran entered a third day. It also hit Iranian missile launchers in Iran overnight, Israel said.
[D]espite Israel’s aggressive air strikes and even suggestions that they are aimed at the regime itself, Iran has not responded in kind, launching fewer missiles than expected and at a declining rate. That’s because Israel has targeted Iran’s stockpile of missiles as well as its ability to launch them, according to the Institute for the Study of War. . . . Before the current conflict started, U.S. and Israeli estimates put Iran’s stockpile of missiles at about 2,000, but not all of them have enough range to reach Israel, according to ISW. If that number is accurate, then Iran’s current rate of missile launches at Israel may not be sustainable for much longer.
Iranian state media officially confirms that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ intelligence chief, Brig. Gen. Mohammad Kazemi and his deputy Hassan Mohaqiq were killed in an Israeli strike today. State media also says a third IRGC intelligence officer, Mohsen Bagheri, was also killed in the strike in Tehran.
Israel Appears to Take Aim at Iran’s Regime with Expanded Targets | Washington Post
Israeli strikes targeting Iranian energy production facilities, manufacturing plants and aviation signaled the start of a wider and more intense phase of the conflict Sunday, as Israeli war planes pursued new targets deeper in Iran’s cities and towns. . . . The targets appear to indicate an expansion of Israel’s war aims beyond the Iranian nuclear facilities that consumed the first days of the conflict. By striking Iranian industry, local security forces and infrastructure, Israel is aiming to degrade the Iranian state, further damage the country’s already reeling economy and possibly trigger regime change, according to analysts and former officials. . . . Tehran residents also reported a number of explosions that appeared to target single vehicles in the city, stoking suspicion that targeted killings were being carried out with car bombs or small drone attacks.
Israel launched an expanded assault on Iran on Sunday, targeting its energy industry and Defense Ministry headquarters, while Tehran unleashed a fresh barrage of deadly strikes.
A Look at Iran’s Oil and Gas Facilities, Including Those Targeted by Israel | Reuters
Israel struck an installation at Iran’s South Pars gas field on Saturday, the first attack on Iran’s oil and gas sector as part of what the Israeli government had warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon. Iran has partially suspended gas production from the South Pars field, Iran’s portion of the world’s largest natural gas reserve, which lies beneath the Gulf and is shared with major gas exporter Qatar. Israel also struck a Tehran fuel depot and an oil refinery near the capital on Saturday, Iran said, but authorities said the situation was under control. Israel has said the strikes on energy infrastructure were a response to Iranian missile barrages targeting civilian areas in the Jewish state.
Iran’s Vital Oil Industry Is Vulnerable in an Escalating Conflict | New York Times
“There is one clear target that would make it very easy if Israel or the United States wanted to impact Iran’s oil exports,” Homayoun Falakshahi, senior analyst for crude oil at Kpler, a research firm, said during a webinar on Friday. “And this is Kharg Island.” Nearly all of Iran’s oil exports leave from tankers at berths around Kharg Island, a small coral land mass in the northern part of the Persian Gulf off the Iranian coast, potentially making it a target in a protracted war, analysts say.
Israel in No Rush to Wrap Up Iran War, Ambassador Says | Politico
Israel’s ambassador to the United States said Sunday that Israel was not looking to limit or quickly finish up its war with Iran. “The objective is not to contain the war. The objective is to win the war,” Ambassador Yechiel Leiter said to host Martha Raddatz on ABC’s “This Week.” . . . Leiter also said no one including the supreme leader, was off the possible target list in its continued strikes on Iran. “I think it’s fair to say that nobody who’s threatening the destruction of Israel should be off the target list. But we’re not going to discuss specific individuals,” Leiter told Raddatz.
Israeli Ambassador Says Iran’s Nuclear Program ‘Set Back Dramatically, but Not Enough’ | ABC News
Israel’s ambassador to the U.S., Yechiel “Michael” Leiter, claimed that Israel had set Iran's nuclear program back significantly after a series of strikes on the country, but that the full operation could take “weeks.”
With No Clear Off-Ramp, Israel’s War With Iran May Last Weeks, Not Days | New York Times
“We’re weeks rather than days away from this ending,” said Daniel B. Shapiro, who oversaw Middle Eastern affairs at the Pentagon until January. “Israel will keep going until, one way or another, Iran no longer retains an enrichment capability,” added Mr. Shapiro, now a fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based research group. “It’s now clear that if Israel leaves this unaddressed, its campaign will have failed.”
A Miscalculation by Iran Led to Israeli Strikes’ Extensive Toll, Officials Say | New York Times
Iran’s senior leaders had been planning for more than a week for an Israeli attack should nuclear talks with the United States fail. But they made one enormous miscalculation. They never expected Israel to strike before another round of talks that had been scheduled for this coming Sunday in Oman, officials close to Iran’s leadership said on Friday. They dismissed reports that an attack was imminent as Israeli propaganda meant to pressure Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program in those talks. Perhaps because of that complacency, precautions that had been planned were ignored, the officials said.
Netanyahu Says Regime Change in Iran Could Be Result of Israel’s Attacks | Reuters
Asked by Fox's Bret Baier on his “Special Report” program if regime change was part of Israel's military effort, [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu said: “Could certainly be the result because the Iran regime is very weak. . . . We're geared to do whatever is necessary to achieve our dual aim, to remove . . . two existential threats—the nuclear threat and the ballistic missile threat.”
Israel Says Attacks on Iran Are Nothing Compared with What Is Coming | Reuters
[Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu said Israel’s strikes had set back Iran's nuclear programme possibly by years and rejected international calls for restraint. “We will hit every site and every target of the Ayatollahs’ regime, and what they have felt so far is nothing compared with what they will be handed in the coming days,” he said in a video message.
Israel Says ‘Tehran Will Burn’ amid Dueling Missile Launches with Iran | Politico
“If [Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei continues to fire missiles at the Israeli home front — Tehran will burn,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said.
Iran Rejects Ceasefire Negotiations While Under Israeli Attack, Official Says | Reuters
Iran has told mediators Qatar and Oman that it is not open to negotiating a ceasefire while it is under Israeli attack, an official briefed on the communications told Reuters on Sunday . . . “The Iranians informed Qatari and Omani mediators that they will only pursue serious negotiations once Iran has completed its response to the Israeli pre-emptive strikes,” said the official . . . Iran has vowed to “open the gates of hell” in retaliation in what has emerged as the biggest ever confrontation between the longstanding enemies.
Iran has asked Cyprus to convey “some messages” to Israel, President Nikos Christodoulides said on Sunday, as the eastern Mediterranean island appealed for restraint in a rapidly escalating crisis in the Middle East. However, Iran swiftly denied the claim.
Israeli Military Issues Evacuation Warnings to Iranians Near Weapons Facilities | Reuters
Israel on Sunday issued evacuation warnings to Iranians living near weapons production facilities in Tehran . . . Israel had earlier issued an evacuation warning to Iranians residing near weapons facilities in Iran, an Israeli military spokesperson said in a post on X in Arabic and Farsi.
Tehran Residents Flee amid Alleged Israeli Plan to Trigger Exodus | Iran International
Heavy traffic was seen on major highways leading out of Tehran on Sunday, including roads toward Saveh in the southwest and Mashhad in the east, as residents appeared to flee the capital, according to videos received by Iran International.
Iranian-Israelis Back Air Campaign Despite Living Under Fire | Iran International
Iranian-Israeli residents of Bat Yam south of Tel Aviv woke up to a shocking reality on Sunday morning as overnight bombardments on the coastal town left it the worst-hit in the country since the Iranian bombardments began on Friday. The community’s hyphenated identity puts them between the region’s arch-foes, but their loyalties to the Jewish State and its war effort appear to have been boosted.
Iran’s Ayatollahs Are Weaker Than Ever | John Bolton in the Wall Street Journal
Iran’s war against Israel took another turn for the worse last week as Operation Rising Lion struck Tehran’s nuclear-weapons program, air defenses and military leadership. Iran’s retaliation has so far been uneven and ineffective. Contrary to the scaremongers, World War III hasn’t broken out, nor will it. But what next? The 1979 Islamic Revolution retains power in Tehran, and it could rebuild its nuclear and ballistic-missile programs and terrorist networks. The only lasting foundation for Middle East peace and security is overthrowing the ayatollahs. America’s declared objective should be just that.
Iran’s Target Isn’t Just Israel. It’s Us | Mathias Döpfner in Politico
When a society can no longer distinguish between good and evil, between victim and perpetrator, it gives up. This dynamic is one of the great constants of human history. It is a lesson people in free societies—and people in totalitarian societies who yearn to be free—should keep in mind during the climactic showdown underway in the Middle East. Israel has struck a blow to prevent Iran from developing nuclear bombs—weapons that it might credibly use toward its stated goal of removing Israel from the planet. Make no mistake: This is not simply a matter of regional security. Nor should it be a proxy for whether one supports or opposes the current Israeli government’s policy on Gaza or other subjects. This conflict is a central front in a global contest in which the forces of tyranny and violence in recent years have been gaining ground against the forces of freedom, which too often are demoralized and divided.
PROXY WARS
Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah Warns US Against Intervening in Israel–Iran Conflict | Reuters
Iran-aligned Iraqi armed group Kataib Hezbollah warned on Sunday it would resume attacks on U.S. troops in the region if the United States intervenes in the conflict between Israel and Iran. “We are closely monitoring the movements of the American enemy’s army in the region,” Kataib Hezbollah Secretary-General Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi said in a statement. “If America intervenes in the war, we will act directly against its interests and bases spread across the region without hesitation.”
Yemen’s Houthis Target Israel with Ballistic Missiles in Coordination with Iran | Reuters
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Sunday that they targeted Israel in coordination with Iran, the first time an Iran-aligned group has publicly announced joint cooperation on attacks with Tehran. The Yemeni group targeted central Israel’s Jaffa with several ballistic missiles in the last 24 hours, military spokesperson Yehya Sarea said in a televised address.
This Time Hizbullah Isn’t Helping Iran | Economist
Once, Hizbullah was seen as Iran’s ultimate deterrent—a force capable of preventing an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear programme. Nasrallah had boasted of 100,000 fighters and an arsenal of rockets. Now, as the members of the high command of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are being killed, its Lebanese protectors are silent. Hizbullah may have little choice but to sit this out. Israel’s intelligence agencies had deeply penetrated the group since the two last fought a major war in 2006. In just over a year of fighting that started after Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7th 2023, Israel wiped out Hizbullah’s military capabilities. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria in December has paralysed its efforts to rebuild. Today Hizbullah’s missile stockpiles are depleted, and thousands of its fighters remain marooned and unarmed in Iraq, having fled there after a ceasefire with Israel in November 2024.
NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Israel Found Iran Carried Out Key Tests for Nuke Design Ahead of Strikes—Report | Times of Israel
Ahead of its strikes on Iran, Israel discovered that the Islamic Republic’s scientists had conducted successful experiments in the design process of a nuclear weapon, bringing it weeks away from being able to produce a bomb if it chose to do so, according to a Hebrew media report Sunday.
Critical Damage Dealt to Key Iranian Nuclear Site, IAEA Says | Bloomberg
Israeli airstrikes dealt critical damage to a key Iranian nuclear facility during weekend airstrikes, according to the United Nations atomic watchdog, likely setting back the Islamic Republic’s uranium fuel cycle by months. . . . The IAEA reported late Friday that Israel had so far failed to damage Iran’s Fordow enrichment complex, which is buried some 500 meters (1,640 feet) inside a mountain. Similarly, efforts to destroy to Iran’s primary enrichment facility in Natanz have been limited to surface structures, with no detected breaches to the heavily-fortified underground enrichment halls. . . . Diplomats will convene in Vienna on Monday for an emergency session of the IAEA’s board of governors. They’re expected to discuss Israel’s ongoing efforts to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, as well the interruption to the IAEA’s ability to verify the country’s stockpile of near-bomb grade uranium.
Tehran Ready to Abandon Enrichment but Needs a Face-Saving Exit | IranWire
In an exclusive interview, a high-ranking Iranian diplomat revealed that Iran’s military and political leadership are prepared to give up uranium enrichment to preserve the regime. “But we need a face-saving solution,” said the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “The real priority of the Supreme Leader and our government is survival. The ongoing cycle of attacks and counterattacks between Israel and Iran will inevitably weaken our military, security forces, economy, public morale, and ultimately, the government,” he said.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said Monday that there is a possibility of both radiological and chemical contamination within Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz following Israeli strikes, although radiation levels outside the complex are presently normal.
Iran Says Parliament Is Preparing Bill to Leave Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty | Reuters
Iranian parliamentarians are preparing a bill that could push Tehran toward exiting the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the foreign ministry said on Monday, while reiterating Tehran’s official stance against developing nuclear weapons. “In light of recent developments, we will take an appropriate decision. Government has to enforce parliament bills but such a proposal is just being prepared and we will coordinate in the later stages with parliament,” the ministry’s spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said . . . The NPT, which Iran ratified in 1970, guarantees countries the right to pursue civilian nuclear power in return for requiring them to forego atomic weapons and cooperate with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the IAEA.
Germany, France and UK Ready to Hold Talks with Iran, Says German Minister | Reuters
Germany, France and Britain are ready to hold immediate talks with Iran over Tehran’s nuclear programme in an effort to de-escalate the situation in the Middle East, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said.
Explainer: The Handful of Facilities at the Core of Iran's Nuclear Program | Agence France-Presse
Iran, which vows to destroy Israel, has always denied any ambition to develop nuclear weapons, but its enrichment levels are far beyond any civilian purpose and the IAEA says it has obstructed inspectors from visiting its nuclear sites. . . . Below is a list of the country’s key nuclear sites, which are, at least officially, subject to regular inspections by the UN nuclear watchdog.
One Iranian Miscalculation After Another | Wall Street Journal Editorial
Mr. Trump says Iran has a last chance for a deal, so how about this? Dismantle Fordow and the rest of the enrichment program right now or lose them, and much more, by force. Iran doesn’t hold the cards here, and its leaders would be wise to take such a deal. But if history is a guide, they will refuse and suffer more defeats.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Ali Khamenei: Ruthless Defender of Iran’s Revolution with Few Good Options Left | Guardian
The assassination [of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah] was a personal blow to Khamenei, who had known Nasrallah for decades. The Israeli air offensive against Iran, launched on Friday, is another such blow. It has prompted more defiance from Tehran, and a barrage of missiles and drones launched at Tel Aviv, but neither appear likely to stop the Israeli attacks. Iran’s air defences are apparently ineffective and the coalition of Islamist militias that Khamenei had built up to deter Israel is effectively shattered. Khamenei now has few good options—a situation this careful, pragmatic, conservative and ruthless revolutionary has always sought to avoid.
CONGRESS & IRAN
Trump Pressed to Take Hard Line with Iran After Israel Strikes | Axios
A group of pro-Israel members of Congress is urging President Trump to ensure “zero enrichment, zero pathway to a nuclear weapon” in negotiations with Iran, Axios has learned. . . . The lawmakers—including a Republican, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.)—said Israel’s strikes against Iranian nuclear sites and other military targets has created a “renewed sense of urgency” on the issue. . . . The letter is led by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), a staunchly pro-Israelcentrist Democrat, and signed by seven other House Democrats, in addition to Bacon. They urged him to add “crushing diplomatic pressure . . . to Israel's military pressure” by working with European countries to impose “Snapback” sanctions on Iran for being out of compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal.
Lawmakers Urge Defense If Iran Attacks U.S. Targets | Axios
Several lawmakers on Sunday stressed that if Iran attacks U.S. targets following Israel's massive strike, the country should defend itself.
RUSSIA, UKRAINE, & IRAN
Top Khamenei Aide in Talks with Russia for Possible Evacuation Plan | Iran International
Iran International has obtained information indicating that Ali Asghar Hejazi, deputy chief of staff to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is in negotiations with Russian officials to secure a potential exit from Iran for himself and his family if the situation deteriorates. According to the information, a senior Russian official has assured Hejazi that in case of escalation, Moscow would facilitate his evacuation via a secure corridor. Other senior Iranian officials have reportedly received similar contacts, with some already finalizing their own exit routes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video statement Saturday that senior Iranian leaders were “packing their bags.”
Russia Is Ready to Mediate on Iran, and to Accept Tehran’s Uranium, Kremlin Says | Reuters
Russia remains ready to act as a mediator in the conflict between Israel and Iran, and Moscow's previous proposal to store Iranian uranium in Russia remains on the table, the Kremlin said on Monday.
EUROPE & IRAN
European Leaders to Press Trump on Israel–Iran Strategy at G7 Meeting | Guardian
European leaders gathering for a G7 summit with Donald Trump in the Canadian Rockies plan to spend the opening day asking Trump to justify his confidence that Israel and Iran will make a deal that will mean “peace soon.” As the military exchanges worsen and the death toll mounts on both sides, European leaders are intending to pin the US president down on his whole Iran strategy, including getting a definitive response on whether he will use his influence over Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to call a ceasefire, or instead let the war run its course.
Europe Backs Israel, Blames Iran for Instability | Iran International
The European Union opened the G7 in Canada on Sunday by chiding Iran as a destabilizing force in the Middle East and urging diplomacy while backing what it called Israel’s right to defend itself. “Iran is the principal source of instability in the Middle East,” said Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission. Von der Leyen warned that Iran’s destabilizing actions aren’t confined to the Middle East.
CHINA & IRAN
China ‘Condemns’ Israel as It Looks to Show Itself as a Potential Peace Broker | CNN
As an unprecedented Israeli attack on Iran last week sparks a spiraling conflict between the two enemy states, China has seen an opportunity to cast itself as potential peace broker—and an alternative voice to the United States. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi took up this mission over the weekend, speaking with both his Iranian and Israeli counterparts in separate phone calls, where Wang decried the attack that sparked latest conflict and telegraphed China’s offer to “play a constructive role” in its resolution.