TOP STORIES
Iran Preparing For War With Israel, But Hoping To Avert It | The New York Times
As it braces for an expected retaliatory strike from Israel, Iran has ordered the armed forces to be prepared for war but also to try to avoid it, having witnessed the decimation of its allies in Lebanon and Gaza. Four Iranian officials said in telephone interviews this week that the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has ordered the military to devise multiple military plans for responding to an Israeli attack. The scope of any Iranian retaliation, they said, will largely depend on the severity of Israel’s attacks. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss military preparations. If Israeli strikes — a response to a barrage of missiles from Iran earlier this month — inflict widespread damage and high casualties, they said, Iran will retaliate.
Russia Provided Targeting Data For Houthi Assault On Global Shipping | Wall Street Journal
Russia provided targeting data for Yemen’s Houthi rebels as they attacked Western ships in the Red Sea with missiles and drones earlier this year, helping the Iranian-backed group assault a major artery for global trade and further destabilizing the region. The Houthis, which began their attacks late last year over the Gaza war, eventually began using Russian satellite data as they expanded their strikes, said a person familiar with the matter and two European defense officials. The data was passed through members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who were embedded with the Houthis in Yemen, one of the people said. The assistance, which hasn’t been previously reported, shows how far Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to go to undermine the U.S.-led Western economic and political order.
Israeli Strike Kills Journalists In Lebanon, Blinken Sees Urgent Need For Resolution | Reuters
An Israeli strike killed three journalists in south Lebanon on Friday, Lebanon's health ministry said, and the UN refugee agency warned that Israeli airstrikes on a border crossing with Syria were hindering refugees attempting to flee the war. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said there was an urgency to get a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, a day after he said Washington did not want to see a protracted campaign in Lebanon by its ally Israel. Israel launched its major offensive in Lebanon a month ago, saying it was targeting the heavily armed, Iran-backed Hezbollah group to secure the return home of tens of thousands of Israelis evacuated from the north due to cross-border rocket attacks.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Hamas is an idea and you don’t kill an idea. Or so they keep telling us. These are the words of the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, not your average student activist. Borrell’s line of argument is, of course, flawed from the very offset. Nazism in Europe in the 1940s simply could not have been defeated without a military campaign that dismantled Hitler’s Third Reich. The same is true of Hamas in Gaza. The death of Yahya Sinwar, the group’s leader and mastermind behind the October 7 terrorist attacks, brings us one step closer to the unravelling of the entity that nurtures Islamist extremism in Palestinian territories. But in killing Sinwar, Israel has not just inflicted a major setback on Hamas. The death of the October 7 mastermind lands another colossal blow to Hamas’ main patron, the Islamist regime in Iran, in what appears now to be a weekly occurrence for Tehran.
A growing number of tankers involved in Iran and Venezuela's illicit oil trade appear to be swapping their cargoes off West Africa, according to ship tracking data, as the US tightens its grip on sanctions-busting by Tehran. […] For Iranian crude oil, West Africa makes an unlikely transshipment hub for supplies mostly directed to markets in Asia, said Claire Jungman, Chief of Staff at UANI, who suspected transponder manipulation as the most likely explanation for recent activity. According to UANI estimates, Iran shipped some 1.7 million barrels per day of oil in September, of which around 94% was delivered to China. The latest Platts OPEC+ survey put Iranian crude production up 7% year-on-year in September, creating added pressure to protect its logistics network from secondary US sanctions.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Qatar Airways Suspends Iran, Lebanon Flights, Joining Growing List Of Airlines | Al-Monitor
Qatar Airways on Wednesday announced the suspension of its flights to and from Lebanon and Iran until further notice, joining a long list of airlines that have halted service to the two countries. The Qatari airline cited the "current situation in the Middle East region" as the reason for their cancellation, referring to the ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon and the impending Israeli strike on Iran. Qatar Airways also announced it would operate flights to Amman, Jordan and Iraq only “during daylight hours.” When Iran struck Israel with a barrage of at least 180 ballistic missiles on Oct. 1, missiles flew over up Jordanian and Iraqi airspace before reaching Israel — likely the reason behind Qatar Airways’ daytime-only flights.
Oil Prices Ease On Possible New Middle East Ceasefire Talks | Reuters
Oil prices eased about 1% in volatile trade on Thursday on reports the U.S. and Israel will try to restart talks on a possible ceasefire in Gaza. Brent futures settled 58 cents, or 0.8%, lower at $74.38 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) slipped 58 cents, or 0.8%, to end at $70.19. Earlier in the session, both benchmarks traded up over $1 a barrel on concerns the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could result in oil supply disruptions and from uncertainty ahead of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5.
Iran's Aviation Woes Compounded By Latest EU Sanctions | Al-Monitor
Iranian photographer Tannaz was on her way to Tehran's airport when European sanctions on flag carrier Iran Air forced her to return home, unable to make it to work in Paris. It was within hours of the European Union announcing measures last week against prominent Iranian officials and entities, including airlines, accused of involvement in the transfer of missiles and drones for Russia to use in its war against Ukraine. Tehran has consistently said such accusations were baseless, but with Western governments unconvinced, the latest sanctions went ahead, dealing a blow to Iran's already embattled airline industry.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Evin Prison Inmates Urge Medical Care For Jailed Nobel Laureate | Iran International
A group of 22 female inmates at Evin Prison have issued a plea for the immediate medical care of their fellow inmate, renowned human rights activist Narges Mohammadi. The women have expressed grave concerns over Mohammadi’s deteriorating health, citing severe chest pain due to a heart condition, a lump in her breast and chronic back pain. Despite requests from medical professionals, including specialists and the prison’s medical department, prison authorities have repeatedly denied Mohammadi’s transfer to a hospital citing orders from superiors.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Seven Jewish Israeli citizens are charged after they were arrested last month on suspicion of spying for Iran for as long as two years, carrying out some 600 at the behest of the Islamic Republic. The seven are accused of the security offenses of aiding the enemy during wartime, and providing information to the enemy. The suspects, all residents of Haifa and the north, include a soldier who deserted the military, as well as two unnamed minors aged 16-17. Prosecutors say Azis Nisanov was recruited by Iran as the head of the spy ring, with his deputy Alexander Sadykov managing the other agents.
Iranian Armed Forces Plan To Triple Revolutionary Guard Budget Thanks To Oil Exports | Fox News
Iran's military forces will get a large influx of cash thanks to a booming energy economy, despite Western sanctions. The regime's upcoming 2025 budget will triple the amount of oil revenue allocated to its armed forces. As tensions with Israel and by proxy the U.S. reach a fever pitch, the government expects next year to take in $26 billion from oil exports, 37.5% of its total revenue. Half of that amount, around $13 billion, will be directed toward military spending, according to a report on the budget by Iran International.
ECONOMIC WARFARE
Iranian Oil Kingpin’s Hedge Fund Manages Millions From London | Bloomberg
Just blocks from London’s luxurious Harrods department store sits an office that’s a key cog in an Iranian oil kingpin’s financial empire. The building at 180 Brompton Road is one of the main outposts for Ocean Leonid Investments, a hedge fund overseen by Hossein Shamkhani, the secretive commodities trader whose network is an influential player in both Iran and Russia, according to more than a dozen people familiar with the matter and documents seen by Bloomberg. Ocean Leonid, which was incorporated in the UK in June 2022, also operates from offices in Geneva, Dubai and Singapore. It is known in finance circles as a proprietary firm focused on the energy sector.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Putin Warns Of Middle East Conflagration And Debates Ukraine At BRICS | Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin told BRICS leaders on Thursday that the Middle East was on the brink of a full-scale war after a sharp rise in tension between Israel and Iran, though the Kremlin chief also faced calls to end the war in Ukraine. The BRICS summit, attended by more than 20 leaders including Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Turkey's Tayyip Erdogan, has shown the depth of Russia's relations beyond the Western world. Much discussion at the summit in the Russian city of Kazan was dedicated to the war in Ukraine and the violence in the Middle East, though there were no sign that anything specific would be done to end either conflict.
Israel Attacks Targets In Syria And Lebanon As Air Campaign Continues | Iran International
Israel carried out deadly air strikes on targets in Damascus and a military site near the western city of Homs early on Thursday, Syrian state media reported, and further bombarded Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. There was no immediate claim of responsibility from Israel, which often does not detail its role in attacks on other countries. "Aerial aggression from the direction of the occupied Syrian Golan and northern Lebanon targeted two points in the Kafr Sousa neighborhood in Damascus and a military site in the Homs countryside," SANA quoted a military source as saying.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Yemen's Iran-Backed Houthis Step Up Crackdown On Aid Workers | DW News
In their latest wave of arrests, Houthi rebels in Yemen have jailed scores of people for celebrating a national holiday on what the Iran-backed militia considers the wrong date. "Since 1962, Yemenis have celebrated September 26 as the birth of the Yemen Arab Republic," said Thomas Juneau, a Middle East analyst and professor at the University of Ottawa in Canada. "However, for the Houthis, that date symbolically marks a very clear threat to their legitimacy," he said, adding that "any celebration of September 26 can be perceived as a call for a return to a republican Yemen, which is antithetical to what the Houthis stand for."
AFGHANISTAN & IRAN
Two Afghan Citizens Executed In Iran, Says Hengaw Human Rights Organisation | iran International
The Hengaw Human Rights Organisation reported on Thursday, October 24, that the Islamic Republic of Iran has executed two Afghan prisoners at the Qom prison. The organisation wrote in its report that the two men were named Ayub Sangar and Abdul Raqib Maliki. The Hengaw report states that the two men were executed on charges of "premeditated murder.
CYBERWARFARE
Exclusive: Accused Iranian Hackers Successfully Peddle Stolen Trump Emails | Reuters
The accused Iranian hacking group who intercepted Republican U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump's campaign emails have finally found some success in getting their stolen material published after initially failing to interest the mainstream media. In recent weeks, the hackers began peddling Trump emails more widely to one Democratic political operative, who has posted a trove of material to the website of his political action committee, American Muckrakers, and to independent journalists, at least one of whom posted them on the writing platform Substack. The latest material shows Trump campaign communications with external advisers and other allies, discussing a range of topics leading up to the 2024 election.