TOP STORIES
Iran Orders Material From China for Hundreds of Ballistic Missiles | Wall Street Journal
Iran has ordered thousands of tons of ballistic-missile ingredients from China, people familiar with the transaction said, seeking to rebuild its military prowess as it discusses the future of its nuclear program with the U.S. Shipments of ammonium perchlorate are expected to reach Iran in coming months and could fuel hundreds of ballistic missiles, the people said. Some of the material would likely be sent to militias in the region aligned with Iran, including Houthis in Yemen, one of the people said.
Israel Assured U.S. It Won't Strike Iran Unless Talks Fail | Axios
Israel has reassured the White House that it won't launch an attack against Iran's nuclear facilities unless President Trump signals negotiations with Iran have failed, two Israeli officials with direct knowledge tell Axios.
Western nations are planning to table a resolution at a meeting of the U.N.’s nuclear agency that will find Iran in non-compliance with its so-called safeguards obligations for the first time in 20 years, a senior western diplomat said Thursday. . . . The draft resolution, which was seen by The Associated Press, says: “Iran’s many failures to uphold its obligations since 2019 to provide the Agency with full and timely cooperation regarding undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple undeclared locations in Iran ... constitutes non-compliance with its obligations under its Safeguards Agreement.” The draft resolution furthermore finds that the IAEA's “inability ... to provide assurance that Iran’s nuclear programme is exclusively peaceful gives rise to questions that are within the competence of the United Nations Security Council, as the organ bearing the main responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security.”
NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Ali Shamkhani, a senior aide to Iran's supreme leader, said this week that Iran was preparing a counterproposal after the Iranian leader charged that Washington's proposal for a nuclear agreement went against national interests. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also insisted Iran will not abandon uranium enrichment.
Iran warns European powers against backing a draft resolution at the International Atomic Energy Agency next week that finds Iran in non-compliance, calling it a “strategic mistake.” “Instead of engaging in good faith, the E3 is opting for malign action against Iran at the IAEA Board of Governors,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says on X, referring to Britain, France and Germany. “Mark my words as Europe ponders another major strategic mistake: Iran will react strongly against any violation of its rights.”
US Sidelines Europe and Turns to Gulf to Drive Iran Nuclear Talks | Financial Times
Gulf states have eclipsed Europe as central players in the US’s efforts to secure a new nuclear deal with Iran, a stark reversal of roles a decade after they were sidelined and frustrated by an earlier landmark agreement with Tehran. In part, the shift underscores how US President Donald Trump’s pursuit of his America First policy, and marginalising of traditional European allies, has created space for middle powers in the Gulf and elsewhere to try and influence America’s foreign policy.
Despite hopeful signals from President Donald Trump’s administration about a potential nuclear deal with Iran, the fundamentals don’t look good. Trump said this week, rightly, that the US would not allow Tehran any form of uranium enrichment capability (although top aides have sent mixed signals). Iran, conversely, makes the unconvincing claim that it would use enrichment capacity not to build an atomic weapon, but to feed nuclear power plants. Israel, meanwhile, is sending blatant signals that it is ready and enthusiastic to launch strikes at Tehran’s nuclear facilities now, while Iranian air defenses are still weakened after two years of sporadic conflict. Trump is telling the Israelis to cool their jets (literally) while he tries to forge a peaceful arrangement. But he is equally clear that if talks collapse, the next step may well be joint US-Israeli strikes.
Khamenei Rebuffed US Nuclear Offer, Not Talks | Iran International
Tehran’s response to Washington’s proposal to halt uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief has been marked by deep distrust and combative rhetoric—but not a complete break from diplomacy. . . . Despite the sharpness of his remarks, [Iranian Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei stopped short of ending negotiations—a nuance not lost on Iranian analysts, many of whom saw room for continued backchannel diplomacy.
Island Vibes? US and Iran Joust over Where to Enrich Uranium | Iran International
The location of a proposed uranium enrichment consortium to help resolve Iran's nuclear impasse is emerging as a central point of contention, as Tehran insists enrichment must occur on its own soil.
Former Iranian Nuclear Chief Reveals Russia Blocked Domestic Fuel Use | IranWire
The Islamic Republic’s former nuclear chief said Russia has prevented Iran from using domestically produced nuclear fuel at the Bushehr power plant. Ali Akbar Salehi, former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, said on Wednesday that Russia insisted only Russian-supplied fuel be used at Bushehr, despite Iran producing its own. Salehi also revealed that China abandoned Iran’s uranium extraction project midway through development, forcing Iran to continue alone. The admissions undercut years of Iranian claims about achieving independence in nuclear fuel production, which officials had promoted as a major accomplishment.
SANCTIONS, SHIPPING, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Oil Price Drop and Sanctions Puts the Squeeze on Iran and Russia | Maritime Executive
Lower pricing and improved sanctions enforcement will pressure Iran and Russia in particular, who already are in competition with each other to sell their discounted crude and may need to fight each other with further discounting. In the changed environment, many who previously bought from Iran and Russia will be looking for supply elsewhere, with the narrowed price differential no longer justifying the risk of breeching sanctions.
PROTESTS AND HUMAN RIGHTS
Dozens Arrested as Iran Truckers’ Strike Enters Third Week | Iran International
Iranian authorities have arrested more than 40 people, including truck drivers and supporters of a growing nationwide truckers’ strike, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). The detentions span several provinces, including Kurdistan, Kermanshah, Gilan, Fars, Qazvin, and Kermanshah, and involve both striking drivers and citizens accused of promoting the protests online or documenting blockades.
Iranian Woman Found Murdered After Suspicious Disappearance | IranWire
Police confirmed on Thursday that a 24-year-old woman who disappeared under suspicious circumstances has been murdered and a suspect has been arrested. Elaheh Hosseinnejad, a resident of Islamshahr, vanished on May 25 while returning home from her job at a beauty salon in Tehran. . . . Hosseinnejad was active on social media and had previously posted in support of the Woman, Life, Freedom movement on Instagram. She had also shared tributes to executed protesters, including Mohammad Hosseini.
Rights Groups: Iran’s Executions of Afghans Triple | IranWire
Iran executed at least 80 Afghans in 2024, a threefold increase compared to the previous year, according to a joint statement released by 84 human rights organizations urging international action to halt the executions. Only six of the executions were officially announced, with the remainder carried out without media coverage, the statement said. In the first five months of 2025 alone, at least 32 Afghan citizens have been executed in Iran, the organizations reported.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Pakistani Man Convicted of Smuggling Iranian Missile Parts Headed to Houthi Rebels | New York Times
A Pakistani man was convicted on Thursday for his role in smuggling Iranian missile components bound for Houthi rebels, after being captured in a military operation last year that resulted in the deaths of two Navy SEALs, the Justice Department said. The man, Muhammad Pahlawan, 49, was the captain of a small boat that was intercepted by the Navy ship Lewis B. Puller off Somalia in January 2024 and boarded by SEALs and U.S. Coast Guard members, prosecutors said. They found “ballistic missile components, anti-ship cruise missile components and a warhead,” consistent with weapons the Houthis have used against merchant ships and Navy vessels in the Red Sea.
Tucker Carlson and the Reverse-Munich Phenomenon | Philip Klein in National Review
[N]obody other than [Tucker[ Carlson and his allies are arguing that the U.S. is going to use the Iraq War as a model for military action against Iran. As things currently stand, Iran is marching toward a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has rejected Trump’s demand that it abandon uranium enrichment. Carlson’s position, in effect, is that Trump should cave in to Iran’s demands on enrichment. Carlson likes to portray himself as an opponent of the elites, but the idea of negotiating with Iran rather than striking its nuclear program militarily is as close as you can get to elite Washington consensus opinion. In fact, the idea that the only alternative to signing a bad deal with Iran is World War III is a false choice that is right out of the playbook of Barack Obama and John Kerry.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iranians React to New Trump Travel Ban as Tensions are High Between Nations | Washington Post
Iranians again face a U.S. travel ban imposed by President Donald Trump, with the decision drawing anger, frustration and some shrugs given the decades of tensions between the countries.
Desperate Odds: Inside Iran’s Quiet Gambling Boom | Iran International
Despite legal and religious prohibitions, online gambling is quietly on the rise in Iran, offering an illusory hope of gain to many worn out by economic hardship. The phenomenon is steeped in contradiction, with many platforms operating in plain sight despite the Islamic prohibition of gambling. While supreme leader Ali Khamenei recently ruled that predicting sports outcomes for prizes is not inherently forbidden (haram), Iran’s judiciary continues to treat gambling as a criminal offense—punishable by lashes and imprisonment. Still, with the national currency, the rial, in free fall and opportunities dwindling, many see gambling as one of the few remaining ways to beat inflation—or to reclaim a fleeting sense of freedom.
EUROPE & IRAN
U.K. Faces ‘Extraordinary’ Threat from Russian and Iranian Plots, Official Warns | New York Times
The adviser, Jonathan Hall, cannot discuss active criminal cases because of England’s strict reporting laws. But in an interview with The New York Times, he said attempts by Russia and Iran to carry out hostile acts on British soil were creating an “extraordinary” level of threat, albeit one that may be harder for the public to grasp than that from terrorism. “Terrorism is something that gets public attention,” Mr. Hall said, partly because of the “death and destruction and mayhem” caused by attacks. State threats, he said, were “much harder to conceptualize” for the public.
ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON, & IRAN
Iran condemns Israeli “aggression” in Lebanon after a series of airstrikes targeted Hezbollah facilities in the southern suburbs of Beirut last night. The IDF also targeted what it said was a Hezbollah drone workshop in the southern Lebanon town of Ain Qana. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei describes the strikes “as a blatant act of aggression against Lebanon’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
PAKISTAN & IRAN
‘It’s a House of Cards’: Analysts Warn Pakistan over Iran Ties | Yedioth Ahronoth
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif concluded a pivotal four-nation diplomatic tour to Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Tajikistan last week, reaffirming his country’s commitment to strengthening regional partnerships and asserting its role as a constructive and responsible actor amid evolving regional dynamics and heightened tensions with neighboring India. . . . “It’s a house of cards that Pakistan needs to be careful with, especially with India looking to restart an offensive. Public opinion will not favor Pakistan if it chooses to stand with Iran at this juncture.”
ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS
Fire Erupts at Iran’s Shadegan International Wetland | IranWire
A fire broke out on Wednesday at the Shadegan International Wetland in Khuzestan Province, with authorities attributing the blaze to illegal fishing using electric shock devices. . . . The Shadegan Wetland is on the international wetlands registry and has faced environmental problems, including drought, sewage contamination, and reduced water flows in recent years.