TOP STORIES
Iran Exposed To Israeli Counterattack After Blows Against Its Allies | The Wall Street Journal
With two of Iran’s most powerful proxies—Hezbollah and Hamas—fighting for their lives, Tehran has lost a central pillar of its deterrence strategy, giving Israel an opening to strike what it sees as its most dangerous foe. On Tuesday, Iran unleashed one of the biggest ballistic-missile barrages in the history of warfare, aimed at targets across Israel. It said it was retaliating for Israel’s killing of the two militant groups’ leaders, Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah and Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas. Israel has promised a forceful response. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tehran had made “a great error and will pay for it.” When and how Israel will strike back remains unclear, as is the question of whether it would choose to target Tehran’s nuclear program.
Israel pressed forward on two fronts Wednesday, pursuing a ground incursion into Lebanon against Hezbollah that left eight Israeli soldiers dead and conducting strikes in Gaza that killed dozens, including children. As Israel vowed to retaliate for Iran’s ballistic missile attack a day earlier, the region braced for further escalation. Iran, which backs both Hezbollah and the Hamas militants who run the Gaza Strip, launched dozens of missiles into Israel on Tuesday night, another escalation in a tit-for-tat cycle that is pushing the Middle East closer to a regional war. Israel warned that the attack would have “repercussions.”
Biden Says US Would Not Support Israeli Strike On Iran Nuclear Sites | Reuters
U.S. President Joe Biden said on Wednesday he would not support any Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear sites in response to its ballistic missile attack and urged Israel to act "proportionally" against its regional arch-foe. Biden spoke a day after Iran fired more than 180 missiles at Israel, an operation he previously described as "ineffective." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed Iran would pay for the attack. "We'll be discussing with the Israelis what they're going to do, but all seven of us (G7 nations) agree that they have a right to respond but they should respond proportionally," Biden told reporters before boarding Air Force One.
UANI IN THE NEWS
After his predecessor Qasem Soleimani cultivated and armed radical proxy forces throughout the region, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)’s current Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani allocated much of his time and effort to ensuring that these forces could work in tandem towards shared goals of destroying Israel and eroding the US’s regional security architecture. There were many indications that Qaani’s approach had born significant fruit: Hezbollah helped to train and arm the Houthis, Iranian proxies had set up integrated command rooms in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, and these groups launched coordinated attacks against Israel after Hamas’s massacre on October 7 in order to disrupt the IDF campaign to eradicate Hamas from Gaza.
Iran And The Cost Of A War With Israel | DW News
The rapid escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel, heightened when Teheran fired a barrage of at least 180 missiles into Israel on October 1, saw global oil prices surge by about 5% — the most in a year. […] The terms "dark fleet" or "shadow fleet" refer to disguised ships that smuggle oil, thereby circumventing sanctions. According to the US-based nonprofit United Against Nuclear Iran, Iran's shadow fleet is made up of at least 383 ships. According to the London-based TV station Iran International, the regime sells its oil at a 20% discount to the global market price, as compensation for the risk buyers face due to sanctions.
Why Did Iran Attack Israel And How Could Netanyahu Strike Back? | The Times
The warning Israel had when Iran sent a salvo of ballistic missiles aimed at key targets on Tuesday night was ten to twelve minutes. [...] Kasra Aarabi, a director of IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran, another US think tank, also pointed out that Iran’s oil industry was “one of [the] main lifelines — or arteries — of the regime”. He said its infrastructure, including the financing of its proxies such as Hezbollah, was largely dependent on it. Oil prices had already jumped by over a dollar on Wednesday due to rising concerns that Middle East tensions could escalate.
Israel’s Next Targets: Iran’s Nuclear Sites And Oil Refineries | The Times
Israel warned Iran it would target Iran's nuclear and oil facilities if missiles were launched towards Tel Aviv. Those missiles were launched last night, leaving the Middle East "on the brink". Chief Executive of United Against Nuclear Iran, former US Ambassador Mark Wallace, analyses what could happen next. The World in 10 is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Expert analysis of war, diplomatic relations and cyber security from The Times' foreign correspondents and military specialists.
Is Iran Ready For War With Israel? | Monocle
How close are the Middle East’s two greatest foes to all-out conflict? Then: German chancellor Olaf Scholz and French president Emmanuel Macron meet in Berlin, Singapore’s former transport minister is on trial and we get an update on Hurricane Helene. Plus: a visit to Christie’s Asia flagship and there’s a reshuffle at Celine. Interview featuring UANI Director of IRGC Research, Kasra Aarabi.
It comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed Tehran “will pay” for its missile attack yesterday. […] Kasra Aarabi, Director of IRGC Research at United Against Nuclear Iran told The Sun there were three main areas which the IDF is likely to strike. He said: “The first is targeting the Iranian regime. Military intelligence assets in Iran. “Those assets that played a key role in orchestrating this attack. “Those assets that have played a key role in orchestrating terrorist attacks more broadly across the region, across the world. So IRGC assets are one target.” Mr Aarabi added: “The regime's oil infrastructure is another prime target.”
Kasra Aarabi is the Director of IRGC Research at United Against Nuclear Iran and non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Bolton Says Israel Should Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program | The Hill
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton said Israel should “destroy” Iran’s nuclear weapons program during a Wednesday appearance on NewsNation. Iran launched nearly 200 missiles into Israel on Tuesday in response to a series of targeted killings carried out by Israel that have left several leaders of militia groups alligned with Tehran dead. Israel is widely expected to launch strikes on Iran in response to the Tuesday attack. Bolton, a hawk who served as former President Trump’s national security adviser before breaking with him, argued for an aggressive approach.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
The White House says US President Joe Biden coordinated the multilateral rollout of new sanctions against Iran following its missile attack on Israel during a phone call with G7 leaders earlier today. “Biden and the G7 unequivocally condemned Iran’s attack against Israel. President Biden expressed the United States’ full solidarity and support to Israel and its people, and reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s security,” says a White House readout.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Russia, Iran, China Expected To Use AI To Try To Influence US Election, Report Says | Reuters
The U.S. sees a growing threat of Russia, Iran and China attempting to influence the Nov. 5 elections, including by using artificial intelligence to disseminate fake or divisive information, according to an annual U.S. threat assessment released on Wednesday. Russian "influence actors" have amplified stories about migrants entering the U.S. in an attempt to stoke discord, according to the Department of Homeland Security report, and have used generative AI to create fake websites that appeared to be authentic U.S.-based media outlets. Iran has become "increasingly aggressive in its foreign influence efforts," the report said. In one example, Iranian actors posed as activists online to encourage protests over the conflict in Gaza, DHS said.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Iran’s ‘Axis Of Resistance’ Call For Further Attacks On Israel | The Guardian
Armed militant groups in the Iran-backed “axis of resistance” have welcomed Tehran’s launch of more than a hundred missiles against targets in Israel on Tuesday and called for further attacks. The statements, from groups in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, underline the regional extent of the current crisis, though analysts says that many key members of the Iranian-backed coalition have been so weakened over the course of the last year that their ability to convert rhetorical threats to real danger to Israel is limited. Tuesday’s attack on Israel followed a series of devastating Israeli strikes on Iran’s ally Hezbollah in Lebanon, including the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the Shia Islamist militia’s leader and a towering figure in Iran’s network of fighters across the region.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Iran Says Action Against Israel Concluded Unless It Invites Further Retaliation | Reuters
Iran exercised "self-defence" against Israel and its action is concluded unless the "Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in a post on social media platform X early on Wednesday. Tehran launched a salvo of missiles on Tuesday against Israel in retaliation for the killing of several leaders of Iran-aligned armed groups. Araqchi said Washington was told by Tehran not to interfere following its attack on Israel.
CHINA & IRAN
U.S. Sanctions Chinese And Iranian Houthi Weapons Smuggling Networks | United Press International
The United States Wednesday imposed sanctions on what the Treasury Department said are Houthi weapons smuggling and procurement networks with operatives and suppliers in Iran and China. The sanctions include two ships and one entity allegedly involved in enabling the Yemen-based Houthis to get dual-use items needed to maintain and deploy weapons used against U.S. and allied interests.