August 2022 Iran Tanker Tracking

As a final nuclear deal creeps into view, many analysts predict an immediate boost to the global oil supply as Iranian crude comes back online. Some analysts estimate that “Iran has about 150 to 200 million barrels of crude and condensate floating on the water” which would become available almost immediately.  Meanwhile, a draft agreement would purportedly see the U.S. permit Iran to sell 50 million barrels in a “one-time sanctions exemption” just 60 days after “Day Zero” of a new deal. Ultimately, Iran could add an additional 900,000 barrels per day (bdp) into the system, rising up to as high as 2 million bpd thereafter.  

The likelihood that Iran will maximize the potential profits of this windfall is dependent on the viability of its tanker fleet.   Notably, the average age of a National Iranian Tanker Company (“NITC”) vessel is 19 years old, whereas tankers are usually broken down after 20 years. Thus, the Iranian fleet is approaching the time for scrapping - not transporting.  Given the age of its fleet, Iran could even struggle to obtain the insurance coverage necessary to ferry its glut of post deal oil to buyers around the globe.

Unless of course, the foreign-flagged vessels tracked by UANI since 2018 are, in fact, Iranian-owned and operated (rather than owned by purported Indian and Chinese companies).  These newer tankers, which UANI strongly suspects are registered through Iranian front companies, could then be used to transport non-sanctioned Iranian oil without restriction.

If August figures prove part of a longer trend, the spike in Iranian oil exports has already begun.  Overall Iranian crude oil and gas condensate exports jumped 40% compared to 1 million barrels per day in July.  We expect China to take in 900,000 bpd of those, matching the 40% increase.  Since President Biden took office, China has paid more than $44 billion for Iranian oil despite an official U.S. policy that such exports are flatly illegal and violative of sanctions.  Since Chinese imports are on par with or exceeding monthly totals from before November 2018 – when Iranian oil was not sanctioned – we can confidently state that U.S. sanctions under Joe Biden have had negligible to zero effect on the Iran-China oil trade. Much of the blame for what will assuredly prove a toothless, reckless deal must lay with the White House’s extraordinary lack of oil sanctions enforcement.

View Iran Tanker Tracking

Vietnamese Collusion in the Transportation of Iranian Oil

              China is not the only country that has chosen to flout American sanctions.  Vietnam has also provided significant support in the transportation of Iranian oil.  On August 30, Head of Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization (TPO) Alireza Peyman-Pak met with Vietnam’s Ambassador to Tehran, Luong Quoc Huy, bemoaning the paltry $120 million in bilateral trade.  Still, Vietnam cited Iran as its biggest trading partner in Western Asia and as a “gateway for the export of Vietnamese products to Europe,” with a view to signing a preferential trade agreement.

              In this context, it is not surprising to note a significant increase in the use of Vietnam-flagged tankers to transport Iranian crude oil and petroleum products in the past year. On July 6, the U.S. State Department reacted by designating one Vietnam-based entity, Truong Phat Loc Shipping Trading JSC (“TPL”), for engaging in the shipment of petroleum products from Iran, plus two vessels previously operated by TPL, BS BRAVO, and SUMMER 5.       

TPL is not the only Vietnamese company that is suspected of helping the Iranian regime evade U.S. sanctions. UANI is aware of at least 15 tankers that have assisted in transporting Iranian oil over the last year. These tankers are owned and operated by different Vietnam-based companies and have assisted the Iranian regime in transporting at least 13 million barrels of Iranian oil since January 2022. Taking into account the discount at which Iran sells its oil, together, these tankers have transported roughly $1.1 billion worth of Iranian oil.

The below chart details the Vietnam-associated tankers which are suspected of transporting Iranian cargo over the last year.

Sao Viet Petrol Transportation Co Ltd is the owner of at least 10 of these tankers. Of these, UANI has tracked five of them transporting Iranian oil over the last year. Vietnam’s Ovtrans Petrol Transport Services Co Ltd owns six tankers, of which two have transported Iranian oil in the last year. The others are suspected of actively being involved in transporting cargo from Venezuela’s Jose Terminal.

FGas Petrol JSC, also based in Vietnam, is the reported owner of the crude oil tanker GRACY, which delivered crude oil from Iran to Venezuela last month.  UANI reported about this incident in our July 2022 Iran Tanker Tracker blog.  Two other companies based in Vietnam suspected of owning tankers involved in the transport of Iranian oil are Thang Long Gas Co Ltd and Nhat Viet Transportation Corp.

 U.S. authorities should immediately review Vietnam’s role in the transportation of Iranian oil with a view to sanctioning the vessels and their owners/operators.