Hezbollah’s Political Losses and the Next Challenge for Lebanon
The political scene in Lebanon underwent dramatic changes in recent days, as the influential position of Hezbollah, the unofficial “kingmaker” of Lebanese politics over the past two decades, was challenged.
Lebanon ended two years of a vacancy in its presidency with the election of the Army Chief, Joseph Aoun, and shortly after the selection of Nawaf Salem, a Sunni diplomat and the head of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), to be Lebanon’s next prime minister.
The appointment of Aoun and Salem to the two top executive positions in the country gained wide parliamentary support, which forced Hezbollah to concede to their candidacies, rather than controlling the process as it used to do in the past. Aoun, who holds close relations with the Biden administration due to his years-long service in the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and Salem, whose professional history represents a commitment to international law and norms, are expected to send Lebanon into a new political era.
In his inauguration speech, President Aoun outlined his vision and vowed to assert the state's monopoly on the possession of weapons, secure Lebanon's borders, and launch wide-ranging economic and judicial reforms.
From Hezbollah’s point of view, the vision of a reformed and functioning state represents a strategic threat, as the organization exploited years of weak state institutions and widespread corruption to cement its position as a “state within a state.”
Hezbollah's ability to create and maintain this independent status depends on the unchecked flow of illicit Iranian funds, weapons, and manpower smuggled into Lebanon through its uncontrolled land, air, and sea border crossings. Those were the sources of Hezbollah’s “tool kit” to reach its status as a political hegemon while using bribes and different forms of political violence to promote its interests.
The truth is that the ascendancy of Aoun and Salem reflect the power balance of the 2022 parliamentary elections, in which Hezbollah and its political allies lost their majority status. In the past, Hezbollah has been successful in preventing the parliament from electing a new president and replacing the caretaker government, thus keeping Lebanon's state institutions weak and easy to manipulate.
Nevertheless, the devastating damage Hezbollah brought upon Lebanon by initiating the war with Israel in October 2023, the resulting decapacitation of its leadership, and especially the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah, the organization's popular leader, together with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, brought the organization to a historic low point. It was this weakness that enabled the opposition parties in the Lebanese parliament, backed by the United States and Saudi Arabia, to challenge Hezbollah and free Lebanon from the political paralysis imposed by Hezbollah.
This will require the new Lebanese political leadership to carefully calculate their next steps regarding Hezbollah. The vision articulated by President Aoun in his inauguration speech directly contradicts Hezbollah’s core interests of keeping its own independent and unsupervised military capabilities and maintaining its unsupervised routes of arms and funds smuggled from Iran.
For years, any attempt to address those sensitive issues was met with Hezbollah’s threats. Accordingly, in recent weeks Hezbollah and its affiliated media outlets already ran a campaign meant to deter the LAF and the other state institutions from carrying out any action that will hinder those interests as part of the implementation of the ceasefire agreement signed a few weeks ago with Israel.
Hezbollah has already made it clear that any such attempt will risk the cohesion of the Lebanese Army, as thousands of Shiite soldiers will refuse to obey their commanders. Furthermore, a few weeks ago, in response to security apparatuses trying to perform a security check on an Iranian diplomat suspected of smuggling illegal funds through Beirut airport, Hezbollah’s supporters flocked to the streets and the organization's media outlets threatened a violent response to any future attempt by the state authorities to restrict Hezbollah’s actions.
As Hezbollah’s political influence weakens, there remains a real possibility of its “turning the tables” by using domestic political violence against its rivals and the state apparatuses. Even after the blows it has suffered from Israel, the organization still commands tens of thousands of armed men that could significantly destabilize the country.
The international community must give its utmost support to President Aoun, the new government, and the LAF in their efforts to uphold Lebanon’s obligations under the ceasefire agreement. This support must be accompanied by a clear message to Hezbollah and Iran that any attempt to destabilize Lebanon will not go unanswered and will lead to severe diplomatic, economic, and, if needed, even targeted military repercussions.
The success of Lebanon’s new president and prime minister is dependent on deterring Hezbollah from using its known “tool kit” of political violence that for years enabled it to hold the country hostage.
Dror Doron is a senior advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) focusing on Hezbollah and Lebanon. He spent nearly two decades as a senior analyst in the Office of Israel's Prime Minister. Dror is on Twitter @DrorDoron.
Receive Iran News in Your Inbox.
Eye on Iran is a news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), a section 501(c)(3) organization. Eye on Iran is available to subscribers on a daily basis or weekly basis.