Congress, Trump Administration Raise Pressure on U.N. to Extend Iran Arms Embargo

On October 18, 2020 the international arms embargo imposed on Iran under Annex B of U.N. Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2231, the resolution which formally endorsed the Iran nuclear deal, will expire. Although Iran has frequently violated the terms of the ban with impunity, allowing the ban to lapse would be a significant victory for Iran and setback for regional security. Congressional Democrats and Republicans have forged a rare, bipartisan consensus in recent weeks on this looming issue, crafting a House letter and Senate resolution aimed at supporting efforts at the United Nations to extend the arms embargo on Iran.

Expiration of the Arms Embargo

Against the backdrop of the reconstituted Iranian nuclear threat, the looming October expiration on the transfer of weaponry and armaments to and from Iran has gained added significance. If the embargo lapses, the supply, sale, or transfer of any guns, howitzers, mortars, battle tanks, armored combat vehicles, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships, and missiles or missile systems to or from Iran will no longer require U.N. Security Council approval. Even though there exists separate U.N. Security Council resolutions concerning discrete regional theaters like Yemen, U.N. member-states will no longer be obligated to prevent such arms-transfers from Iran under Resolution 2231.

As United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) has chronicled in its resource, JCPOA Sunset Alert, even under the strictures of UNSCR 2231, Iran has destabilized regional governments by transferring arms to proxy elements in Yemen, Bahrain, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and the Palestinian territories. Most notably, Iran has clandestinely exported advanced, balance-altering weapons to Lebanese Hezbollah and helped the group establish factories to transform the group’s crude medium-range missiles into precision-guided projectiles. Iran has also sought to further entrench itself militarily in Syria and Iraq, where it has established weapons depots and, in the case of Iraq, has reportedly snuck in an arsenal of short-range ballistic missiles. Iran has also increased the flow of sophisticated weaponry to the Houthis in Yemen including drones, ballistic missiles, and antiaircraft missiles, remaking the group into an increasingly lethal fighting force in its proxy war against the Saudi-U.A.E.-led coalition.

The international community has largely turned a blind eye to these Iranian violations of UNSCR 2231, and the largest check against Tehran has been Israel’s willingness to launch strikes targeting Iranian arms transfers and weapons depots to prevent military entrenchment in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. Additionally, the U.S. has acted at times to interdict Iranian arms shipments believed to be bound to the Houthis.

Despite Iran’s repeated violations of the arms embargo, it is still set to lift in whole on October 18. While the arms embargo therefore appears to be largely toothless, its expiration would still have catastrophic, destabilizing implications for the region. First, it would strip the U.S. and Israel of justification under international law for its efforts to curtail Iranian arms transfers through interdictions and air strikes. Second, it would do away with the U.N. Security Council’s reporting mechanism, which Israel has invoked on at least two occasions for alleged violations of Resolution 2231 in Syria, once for the launching of an “Iranian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV),” described as having been launched into Israeli airspace to attack Israeli territory, and once for Iran’s delivery of a Khordad air defense system (which Israel destroyed before it could be set up) to an Iranian air base. These protections built into UNSCR 2231 have helped to limit, albeit not stop, the flow of weaponry from Iran to its proxies, as it has had to act in a measured way so as not to be too brazen in its flouting of international law.

Already, Iran has signaled its intention to go on a buying spree once 2231 lifts. In August 2019, Iran announced new offers to purchase Russian and Chinese combat aircraft when the arms embargo expires. In November 2019, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani declared, “When the embargo...is lifted next year we can easily buy and sell weapons...This is one of those important impacts of this (nuclear) agreement.” Rebuilding its military would only serve to make Iran a more potent actor on the regional stage. For instance, acquiring advanced Russian combat aircraft would constrain Israel’s ability to carry out sorties against Iranian weapons transfers and military entrenchment on its northern border in Syria and Lebanon.   

The events of March 11, 2020 are illustrative of this threat, when what were presumed to be Iran-backed militia forces, according to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and CENTCOM commander, launched a Katyusha rocket salvo targeting U.S. and coalition troops stationed at Camp Taji, 17 miles north of Baghdad. Two U.S. soldiers and one British soldier were killed in the attack, and an additional twelve soldiers were injured. The attack crossed a U.S. redline and the U.S. responded by launching airstrikes targeting five Kataib Hezbollah facilities that, according to the Department of Defense, housed weapons used to target U.S. and coalition forces.

The Role of Congress

Against the backdrop of Russian and Chinese opposition and European wavering, both houses of the U.S. Congress have introduced important initiatives in recent weeks to signal the U.S.’s bipartisan commitment to extending the arms embargo under UNSCR 2231. In the Senate, Sens. Pat Toomey (R-PA) and Jacky Rosen (D-NV) introduced S. Res. 509, a resolution that calls for the U.N. Security Council to extend the arms embargo and for the international community to commit to fully enforcing the restrictions in place. In the House, Reps. Eliot Engel (D-NY) and Michael McCaul (R-TX), the Chairman and Ranking Member on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, co-authored a letter to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urging “increased diplomatic action by the United States to renew the expiring United Nations arms embargo against Iran.”

Taken together, these initiatives send a message to the U.N. and place Congress on the record as being unified behind the Trump administration when it comes to extending the embargo. It will now fall to the European members of the U.N. Security Council to once again form a united front with the U.S. to bring pressure to bear on Russia and China not to veto efforts to procure an extension.

Jordan Steckler is a Research Analyst at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). Follow him on Twitter @JordanESteckler.