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Iran's Chances Of Energy Investment Fade

Iran's Chances Of Energy Investment Fade

LONDON - Iran's lucrative energy reserves are looking increasingly unloved, as the threat of a fresh round of sanctions looms over President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to the United Nations this week.

Even though Russian and Chinese approval for a fourth round of United Nations sanctions on Iran will be very difficult for the West to obtain, the sanctions already in place should be enough to dissuade even the hardiest energy firms from investing in Iran. Hence why Norwegian energy company StatoilHydro vigorously denied reports that it was still in the running to develop Iran's Anaran oil block on Tuesday, even going so far as to say it had reduced its presence in Iran over the past year.

"Under the present situation, we will not do any new investments in Iran," said a StatoilHydro representative. An official from Iran's state-owned oil company was cited as saying on Monday that StatoilHydro had put forward a "comprehensive" development plan for Anaran.

Although Iran has talked up the possibility of getting investment from Russia or China, which tend to be more doveish despite misgivings about Iran's nuclear program, the current political atmosphere will make this difficult. As an Iranian delegation prepares to travel to Moscow to continue talks with Gazprom, they should probably not expect too much in terms of concrete deals or new infrastructure investment.

"Gazprom would have the same problems as other firms," said Samuel Ciszuk, an analyst with Global Insight. "The sanctions in place are U.N. sanctions [and] U.S. sanctions. Gazprom would not build everything in house. They would use suppliers in Western Europe, maybe Japan."

Moreover, Iran knows that it cannot afford to alienate Western companies like Total or Royal Dutch Shell. These firms have the know-how and the technological expertise to develop Iran's resources, particularly Total, which companies to the East tend to lack.

Global Insight's Ciszuk told Forbes.com that the political winds were not likely to change until a new administration came to the White House, or until a new president took the reins in Iran. And that means a dearth of deals to be made in Iran.

www.forbes.com